NFL Betting Preview: Week 6
Oct 11, 2018, 10:31PM
Week 5 was an incredibly frustrating week for many NFL punters with some all-time blunders costing many tickets. Miami blew a double-digit lead in an incredible fashion ensuring the Bengals covered, the Ravens managed just 9 points from 410 total yards, Dallas punted in overtime to hand Houston victory. All of that, plus a lot other tiny things, showed just how crazy and random football is. The difference between a win or loss in any given game, or any given week is the bounce of a football. All of that makes punting on the NFL a wildly fun and entertaining ride.
We head into Week 6 with two undefeated teams, playing some stiff competition on the road and we no longer have any winless teams as the Cardinals, led by the Rosen one, picked up their first win. Speaking of a win, we had just the lone win on this article last week but had a much better week across the board on The Punt Return Podcast. You can hear all of our thoughts on every Week 6 game on this week’s edition. Here are our five favourite plays for this week.
THE GAME: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS
WHEN: Friday 11:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Over 44
Both teams come into this one with some serious question marks surrounding them. Many are doubting the Eagles as an NFC powerhouse after a very slow start to the season and the Giants locker room has been quiet on their issues with plenty of talk surrounding Eli Manning’s form and the behaviour of Wide Receiver’s Sterling Shepard and Odell Beckham Jr. No team in the NFC East is currently above .500 so this is an incredibly important game in the race for the division. We aren’t overly confident in picking either team at the current 3 point spread so we are going to turn our attention to the total.
The over has been the result in the last five games between these two teams with a combined average score of 54.6. The Giants are coming off their best offensive performance under the Pat Shurmur scoring 30 points in a game for the first time since 2015. We think that’ll continue on a short week against a pretty banged-up Eagles defense that has been leaky at best in defending opposing wide receivers. Odell Beckham Jr should give them plenty of trouble. On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz should be able to move the ball with ease against a Giants defense that has given up nearly 70 points in the last fortnight.
Thursday Night Football has been a haven for Over plays so far this season and we like it to continue here. The SI model isn’t against it with a small 1% edge on the Over 44.
THE GAME: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Chargers -1
It’s pretty insane how quickly the Browns have become a public team. They are insanely popular and as a result, they are a touch overrated and overvalued. There is plenty of talk about them being “a few plays away from 5-0” but you can state that case about a number of teams, it is the National Football League. You could also argue the opposite that they’re a few plays away from being 0-5 as well. Despite leading the league with 15 defensive turnovers and a +8 giveaway/takeaway differential, the Browns two wins are only by the narrowest of margins.
The Chargers are coming off an impressive home victory that featured their best defensive performance of the season, holding the Raiders to just 10 points. That same Raiders outfit put 45 points on the Browns defense just a week earlier. The Chargers are a better football team than the Browns and have sneakily climbed to 5th in DVOA, while the Browns sit 25th. The Browns have now played three overtime games in five weeks and fatigue will have to catch up at some point.
We like the Chargers in this spot won’t be deterred by the dreadful 0-6 against the spread record the Chargers have against the Browns in their last six meetings. Those spreads have been a lot higher than a single point. Take the point or shop around for a nice money line price. The Model agrees with the Chargers -1 being a play.
THE GAME: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW YORK JETS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Indianapolis +3
Last week a very banged up Colts team lost, in Prime Time, on a short week on the road in New England against the Patriots, while the Jets took advantage of a Broncos team travelling across the country on a short week. These results have given us an inflated line as no team here should be favoured over another by a field goal or more regardless of location. They are back to back in overall DVOA with the Jets ranking 17th and the Colts 18th. The health of Darius Leonard is something to monitor in this one, if he’s active he’ll be a massive help in shutting down Isaiah Crowell who is coming off a career game. If not, Crowell could replicate Sony Michel’s success on the ground against this Colts defense.
The Colts weren’t that awful against New England last week, at one point in the third quarter it was a one-score game. Andrew Luck, despite missing plenty of weapons had his best game of the season and showed plenty of arm strength. The Colts have now had 10 days rest to recover (although not everyone has recovered) and will face a Jets team missing Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine, who are a big part of the reason why the Jets rank 6th in Pass Defense DVOA. If Luck can complete a couple of deep passes early and keep this banged up secondary honest, they’ll go a long way to winning this game outright.
We’ll be on the Colts +3 and the money line but will wait until game day as the health of some key players is still in question. The model has no opinion right now on this game with 0% across the board.
THE GAME: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (IN LONDON)
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Over 48
The NFL loves putting on a show for the loyal London fans and that has resulted in plenty of points in past matchups. The over has been the winner in 11 of the last 16 games in London and more recently 6 of the last 10 have gone over. Add in the mix of the massive uptick in offense across the board and we have the perfect recipe for another high-flying match. Passing attempts, completion percentage, touchdown to intercept ratio and touchdowns are all the highest through five weeks since the 1970 merger.
The Raiders have become everyone’s new favourite team to rip on but they still hold the league’s No.6 ranked offense and fair particularly well in passing DVOA. They don’t fare as well on the ground but will be particularly focused on doing so here with Marshawn Lynch facing his former side. Seattle rank 27th on offense but managed their best showing of the season against the Rams. Doug Baldwin’s return has given Tyler Lockett some easier matchups and Chris Carson has been very strong on the ground. Seattle will like their chances to put up points against a Raiders defense that can’t rush the passer (if only the had someone on their roster that could...) or stop the pass.
While the model favours the under (+3% edge on Under 48), we like both teams to generate plenty of scoring drives and get involved in a bit of shootout.
THE GAME: BALTIMORE RAVENS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
WHEN: Monday 7:25am AEST
THE PLAY: Baltimore -2.5
This game basically comes down to which offense you trust the most because we know all there is to know about these two defenses. Both defenses rank inside the top 10 in the NFL in yards allowed and both rank inside the top 5 in points allowed. The Ravens defense, in particular, have been tremendous in the back half of games allowing just six points in second half or overtime over their last three games.
So this game basically comes down to which offense you trust the most. And while Joe Flacco doesn’t exactly instil confidence, he and the Ravens offense have played much better than Marcus Mariota and this Titans offense so far this season. The Titans have played one, yes exactly one, good half of offensive football all season and that came in an epic comeback against a banged up Eagles secondary. Tennessee rank 30th in the league in offensive points per game with 16.2 while the Ravens rank 5th with 26.8 and that is after a measly 9 points from 410 total yards against the Browns in Week 5.
The Ravens go into this match the better team with a 14 team DVOA gap between them and have the better quarterback. Tennessee is 3-7-1 against the spread in their last 11 games at home verse the Ravens and we like them here under a field goal. The SI model likes it as well with a +4% edge to the Ravens -2.5.
