NFL Betting Preview: Week 7
Last updated: Oct 19, 2018, 4:57AM | Published: Oct 17, 2018, 11:01PM
The first five weeks of the season has been tremendous as many of the league’s quarterbacks have been lighting it up. Week 6 was no different with some unbelievable play and results. Aaron Rodgers “pulled a rabbit out of his head” with his impressive fourth-quarter comeback victory while Tom Brady managed to hold off a fast finishing Patrick Mahomes.
Matt Ryan & Jameis Winston put on a show in the home of Super Bowl LIII and the Brock Osweiler stat line against a highly rated Bears defense was one of the most surprising things this season. At the end of all of this, just one team remains undefeated: the Los Angeles Rams.
We finished 3-2 on this article last week, with plenty more plays and analysis featured on “The Punt Return Podcast”, be sure to listen to that but here are some of our favourite plays of Week 7.
THE GAME: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (LONDON)
WHEN: Monday 12:30am AEST
THE PLAY: Chargers -6.5
The Chargers sit just one game back in the AFC West and look primed to make a playoff run. Their only two losses have come against the Chiefs and the crosstown-rival Rams, two of the league’s best teams. The Chargers have completely destroyed their last two opponents winning by a combined 40 points. They now travel across the pond to take on a lowly Titans outfit coming off a complete annihilation at the hands of the Ravens.
While you expect some sort of turnaround and bounce back from the Titans, after allowing 11 sacks, it’s hard to imagine it against this Chargers team in London who just racked up 5 sacks of their own against the Browns. The Chargers defense was 26th in DVOA thru the first three weeks of the season (after facing both the Chiefs & Rams) but have since moved up to 12th after allowing just 12 points to their opponents.
There is currently a 20-point gap right now in DVOA between these teams with the Chargers at 5th & the Titans at 25th and you’re getting less than a touchdown at a neutral venue. The only thing here is that this game is being played at 2:30pm in London, which equates to 6:30am in Los Angeles & 8:30am in Tennessee.
Those time zone changes do weird things sometimes. The Titans haven’t covered a spread in their last 10 meetings against the Chargers and have only scored over 21 points in one game this season. Look for both of those trends to continue as Philip Rivers and the offense put up points and the Titans struggle to replicate.
THE GAME: CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Over 49.5 (and Browns +3.5)
Both these plays come down to one really simple fact: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense stinks. It was so bad that Buccaneers management let Mike Smith go after just five weeks. Under Mike Smith, the Bucs defense was ranked last in the NFL in points per game, yards per play and opposing QBR. What is keeping the Bucs competitive is their offense. Tampa’s offensive output this season: 48, 27, 27, 10, 29. The outlier here was a road game against Khalil Mack and the Bears.
The Browns ran into a buzz saw last week in the Chargers and there was nothing they could really do about it. Baker Mayfield will have learnt a lot from last week’s performance and will have an easier time and more time (Bucs have the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL) in this matchup.
This game has the makings of a shootout. While the Browns defense still ranks 6th in DVOA they have shown they can give up points against balanced offenses lately and Peyton Barber provided that last week on the ground for Tampa. The total has gone over in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games and in 12 of Cleveland’s last 17 road games.
We don’t mind the Browns +3.5 in this shootout as well, they still lead the league in takeaways & we all know that Jameis Winston can be quite reckless with the football. Classic Man vs The Machine match here with the Model liking the Under with a +4% edge making it a small play.
THE GAME: HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Jaguars -5 (and Under 42.5)
This is very contrarian play with many people looking to fade the Jaguars against a “hot” division rival after their embarrassing performance against the Cowboys and offensive struggles against the Chiefs the week prior. The Texans have “won” three straight but not because of anything they have done, they have relied upon inexcusable mistakes late in games by their opponents. Jason Garrett’s decision to punt and Nathan Peterman’s arm have basically saved Bill O’Brien’s job.
Looking at these teams across the board, they are very similar and the analytics back it up. In DVOA the Jaguars are 15th overall, 26th on offense, 5th on defense and 10th on specials. While the Texans are 18th overall, 27th on offense, 8th on defense and 4th on special teams.
We like the Jaguars & the Under here for a few reasons. Firstly, the Jaguars are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following consecutive losses and are back at home. Secondly, the mismatch in the trenches will be too much. Houston tackle Julie'n Davenport has allowed the most pressures in the NFL this season with 32 and the second most pressures allowed is his teammate Martinas Rankin with 27.
The Jaguars are third in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate and should get to Deshaun Watson early and often and force some turnovers. And finally, Jacksonville has owned this matchup recently winning the last two games with a combined score of 74-17. The model likes the Under here with a +4% edge making it a small play.
THE GAME: DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
WHEN: Monday 7:25am AEST
THE PLAY: Cowboys +2.5
Purely playing this game just so we can rehash this incredible stat that Washington Post’s Dan Steinberg posted on Twitter earlier this week:
“The Redskins are 1-1 in their last 2 games, 2-2 in their last 4 and 3-3 in their last 6. They're 5-5 in their last 10, 6-6 in their last 12, 7-7 in their last 14. They're 10-10 in their last 20. They're 16-16-1 in their last 33. They're 18-18-1 in their last 37. 28-28-1 over their last 57.”
This is a clash between two of the most Jekyll & Hyde teams in the NFL. Both these teams produce rocks or diamonds every week and consistency has been a major problem. This is evident by the fact that both teams have yet to win two games in a row but that will change as both are coming off wins last week (unless we have another draw).
Just going off Steinberg’s amazing stat and the W-L pattern of the Redskins this season, it looks like the Redskins will lose this game outright at home but we do like the Cowboys here for more than that. Washington got quite lucky last week with DJ Moore coughing the ball up twice and putting Carolina in a hole.
Dallas has not lost at FedEx Field since 2012 and for the first time in a while, the Cowboys finally have a legitimate defense led by star corner Byron Jones. We like this Cowboys defense to keep their lacklustre offense in the game and Ezekiel Elliott to have himself a day against Washington’s 30th ranked DVOA rush defense. The model likes Dallas here as well with a +2% edge on them at the line.
THE GAME: NEW YORK GIANTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
WHEN: Tuesday 11:15am AEST
THE PLAY: Falcons -5.5
It’s a tale of two quarterbacks in this one. Eli Manning looks finished as a starting quarterback in this league while Matt Ryan should be an MVP candidate (he isn’t because the Falcons are 2-4). We know Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and this Falcons offense are going to score points against this 27th ranked DVOA defense, they’ve put up points against much better defenses and the Giants aren’t getting many turnovers on defense either with the second-fewest takeaways in the League.
If the Giants are going to cover this spread it will come down to the crucial matchup of this offense vs very questionable Falcons defense. This is the perfect spot for a Giants offense ranked 28th in offensive efficiency to bounce back. The Falcons currently allow 5.1 yards per carry on the ground making it an ideal scenario for Saquon Barkley.
While all of the above point toward the Giants covering the spread but we just can’t trust Eli Manning and their offensive line to keep up with the Falcons at home. The Falcons are a much better team than their record suggests (Matt Ryan’s season has been very thoroughly overlooked) and their two home losses have come at the hands top 10 offenses in the Saints and Bengals.
If the Falcons get out to an early lead, the game script will force Eli Manning to throw the ball more which is exactly what teams want because it takes it out Saquon Barkley’s hands.
