NFL Betting Preview: Week 8

We’ve spoken many a time on The Punt Return and our own podcast about the randomness of football. Often the difference between a 10-6 season and a 7-9 season is a couple of bounces of the ball, a few flags, a missed extra point or one lone conversion on fourth down. 

From a punting perspective, Week 7 saw many of those things split half a dozen games and it can be the difference between a winning week or a losing week. The Ravens, Cowboys, Eagles, Browns & Bears were on the receiving end of some unfortunate losses and very easily could have changed the fortunes of their season (and people’s accounts) if just one lone thing went the other way. 

Unfortunately for us, those results didn’t work in our favour last week and this column had a losing week but we move on and embrace the chaos (as NFL Network’s Gregg Rosenthal eloquently put in his The Debrief column) that the NFL brings and roll the dice again. 

So here are our five favourite plays of the NFL in Week 8 and we recommend listening to the Punt Return Podcast for more information and more potential plays.

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THE GAME: MIAMI DOLPHINS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

WHEN: THURSDAY 11:20am AEST

THE PLAY: Miami +7.5

While a lot of the trends in this game point us in the direction of the Houston Texans, the 7.5 point spread just seems way too large. Yes, the Dolphins are on a 3 game losing streak and yes, the Texans are on a four-game win streak but let’s take a deeper look at those wins. 

The Texans first victory was at the hands of a very gutsy decision by Frank Reich to go for it on fourth down inside Colts territory, the second victory was at the hands of a very dumb decision by Jason Garrett to punt inside Texans territory in Overtime, the third victory was at the hands of Nathan Peterman’s right hand as Buffalo had the Texans on the ropes before his pick six and the fourth victory (which happens to be the most legitimate of them all) was Blake Bortles producing yet another 2+ turnover performance (he now has 26 of them in just five seasons). 

As unimpressive as the Dolphins have been the last three weeks, especially on defense, they should not be underdogs of more than a touchdown to a team that was within a whisker of firing their Head Coach. Deshaun Watson is carrying a severe lung injury and had to travel to and from Jacksonville last week on a bus to avoid any air pressure related issues (but he’s healthy enough to play football!?). 

We know this elite Texans defensive line will trouble Osweiler and this Dolphins offense so this game will ultimately come down to the Texans offensive line. Last week, they kept Deshaun Watson very safe only allowing one sack. Was that just a one-off appearance from what has been a swiss cheese unit all season or a sign of improvement and things to come? 

We expect a low scoring and relatively bleak affair and so we like the Dolphins +7.5 in this one. The model LOVES this play with a +9% edge on the Dolphins +7.5. 

THE GAME: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (LONDON)

WHEN: Monday 12:30am AEST

THE PLAY: Philadelphia -3

This might be a hot take but it feels like the Jaguars season might be on the line in this one. The Jaguars suffered an embarrassing home loss to a division rival and their Quarterback Blake Bortles was benched for backup Cody Kessler. After the game, there were multiple sources reporting obvious tension and drama in the Jaguars locker room which saw “Calais Campbell holding back Yannick Ngakoue”. Unfortunately for them, they face a just as desperate Eagles side that has now lost three of its last four games by four points or less. 

A strong performance from this defense and Blake Bortles and leaving London with a win could right the ship for the Jaguars and get their Super Bowl aspirations back on track. With all of that in mind, we still like the Eagles in this one for a few reasons. Firstly, over the last three weeks, Jacksonville currently ranks last in the NFL in average margin score with -20.7. 

Secondly, the Jaguars haven’t scored a point in the first half in the last three weeks and now face an Eagles defense that kept a much more potent offense scoreless for the first 49 minutes last week. Thirdly, since losing Left Tackle Cam Robinson the Jaguars have given up an average of four sacks a game which bodes well for Brandon Graham, Michael Bennett and Chris Long who all rank in the Top 15 for pass rushing on the Edge position in PFF. 

Carson Wentz form has been overlooked because of the team’s win-loss record. He has a 10-1 touchdown to interception ratio since returning from his knee injury. While the model has no real thoughts yet in this one, we like the Eagles -3. Take the defending Super Bowl Champs in their London debuts. If you believe in “London Blake Bortles” (who is undefeated in London with an 8-1 TD-INT ratio) than we advise avoiding this one. 

THE GAME: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DETROIT LIONS

WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Seattle +3

The Seahawks, one of the most popular teams in the NFL, are somehow underrated and have quietly gone about their business over the last month. Since their 0-2 start, the Seahawks put together back to back wins before pushing the best team in the NFL (the LA Rams) to the brink in a two-point loss and then gutter stomped the hapless Raiders in London. The well-rested Seahawks travel to arguably the worst home-field advantage in the NFL to take on Matt Patricia’s 3-3 Lions. 

While both teams currently sit at 3-3 there is quite a stark difference when you look at these teams from an analytics standpoint. There is currently a whopping 18 point gap between the two sides in DVOA with Seattle sitting 10th at 11.7% and the Lions 28th at -18.5%. 

Kerryon Johnson has been terrific since grabbing that starting running back spot and has given the Lions some much-needed balance but it won’t come easy against the 4th ranked DVOA defense of the Seahawks. This defense still has plenty of playmakers with Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed all having great seasons. Seattle also has some trends in their favour with a 5-1 record in their last 6 games against Detroit, a 7-3 record in their last 10 road games and a 5-3 record after the bye during the Pete Carroll era. 

The Seahawks go into this match with the better head coach, quarterback, defense and special teams and you’re getting a field goal. We like the Seahawks to win this match outright. As we have said many a time on the podcast we love taking the Lions as an underdog and fading them as a favourite. It’s business as usual.

THE GAME: BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Under 44

We labelled both these teams the dark horses of the NFL on Wednesday on our weekly segment on 91.3 Sport FM’s breakfast show. We’re excited to watch this one and found it hard to lean towards a side in this one with the Ravens on the road but we really like the Under 44 here. This game reeks of a low scoring slugfest.

Most of the focus in this one will the matchup of the Panthers offense facing off against the vaunted Ravens defense but it’s important to note that the Ravens average just 19.8 points on the road this season compared with the 32.3 they average at home. 

While the Panthers 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points was very impressive, it’s equally concerning that they were held scoreless through the first 49 minutes of that game against the Eagles. The Panthers will have a much tougher time here, even at home, against a Ravens defense that leads the league in yards, points and first downs allowed per game, sacks, yards allowed per play. When it comes to big plays, the Ravens haven’t allowed a play of over 40 yards all season and the Panthers rank last in passing plays of 40+ yards. 

Scoring drives in this game should feature a high number of plays and clock usage. The total has gone under in the Ravens last five games with an average score of 34 points. You’re getting close to an extra ten points here. Take the under and root for a gritty low scoring affair. 

THE GAME: GREEN BAY PACKERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

WHEN: Monday 7:25am AEST

THE PLAY: Under 56.5

There is a little bit confusion across the board here at Woot and Wye headquarters with Wye liking the Under 56.5 and Woot like the Over 56.5. We advise taking this play with a tiny grain of salt and checking out the Week 8 edition of The Punt Return podcast to hear both sides of the debate. So why is the Under 56.5 the play in the article you ask? Well, the Stats Insider Model has a 2% edge on the Under 56.5.

It’s worth noting that this 9.5 point spread against the Packers is the largest Aaron Rodgers era (when he is starting). That spread is the same number that the Rams were favoured over the Jimmy Garappolo-less 49ers just last week. The Green Bay Packers are not a good football team right now. An Aaron Rodgers led offense should not be averaging just 24.9 points a game per season and just 20 points on the road but it is. 

Rodgers is being wasted in a very vanilla Mike McCarthy offense. On defense the Packers defend the pass well and are currently ranked 5th in the league in passing yards allowed per game but rank 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Sean McVay and this Rams offense, missing Cooper Kupp, to utilize Todd Gurley on the ground and exploit that weakness. 

In just six of the Rams last 23 games has the total gone over 57 total points. We like that trend to continue at home as the Rams suffocate the Packers with plenty of long drives from the Rams, running the ball, taking as much time off the clock as possible to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline. Take the Under.

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