NFL Betting Preview: Week 9

We’re officially at the halfway point of the 2018/19 NFL season & what a fun ride it has been. The first 8 weeks of the season has brought us break-out stars and high-scoring excitement while a few teams established themselves as the best teams in the league. Outside of the Rams, Chiefs, Saints and Patriots, there is still a ton to be decided heading into the back end of the regular season. 

While we have a clear four at the top, we also have a clear four at the bottom with Raiders, Bills, 49ers and Giants all struggling to find wins on a consistent basis. Apart from those eight teams mentioned above the rest of the NFL is squeezed in tight with the remaining teams all competing to make a postseason run. 

In the NFC, nine teams are within a game of each other & in the AFC we have some sleeping giants currently with losing records poised to shake things up a little. So grab the popcorn, set the alarm for 5:00am on Monday morning & place yourself on the couch because we are in for a wild ride from now until Super Bowl LIII.

So here are our six favourite plays of the NFL in Week 9 and we recommend listening to the Punt Return Podcast for more information and more potential plays.

THE GAME: OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

WHEN: Friday 11:20am AEST

THE PLAY: Oakland +3

While picking the road underdog on Thursday Night Football did not work well for us last week, we are going down that path again with Raiders in “The Battle of the Bay”. Both teams currently have one single win this season and couldn’t be more desperate to double that. 

The 49ers are coming off their six straight loss after blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against a very average Cardinals team led by rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. Oakland has lost three straight and while they were competitive for three quarters against the Colts they were pummelled 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

We like Oakland in this spot for a few reasons. Firstly, the 49ers are a shocking 5-10 straight up and 1-14 against the spread in their last 15 games a favourite. They are also a league-worst 2-6 against the spread this season. 

Secondly, Derek Carr (who we have historically been low on & have been called out about on Twitter) is coming off his best game of the season with season highs in passer rating (136.6) & AY/A (an amazing 10.86) while tossing 3 TD’s & no interceptions. 

Thirdly, CJ Beathard hasn’t practiced all week and there is a good chance the 49ers will start second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens at quarterback. While George Kittle & Marquise Goodwin matchup well against this Raiders defense, their impact could be capped if Mullens starts. And lastly, Football Outsiders rank the Raiders two spots higher than the 49ers in DVOA. 

This should be an ugly game between two teams very much in the Nick Bosa sweepstakes but we expect the Raiders to cover the +3 spread and we’ll also have a small play on them at the money line as well. The SI model as a 2% edge to the Raiders money line. 

THE GAME: CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Chicago -10

Two Words: Nathan Peterman. The Peterman came into the game late against the Patriots and completed two passes for 23 yards. Those two plays raised Peterman’s career passer rating from 29.9 to 31.4. The Bills are ranked last in offensive DVOA by a very long margin, they’ve been historically bad, and now face the number 1 ranked DVOA defense in the Bears.

Take the points, you’re getting the interception specialist in Peterman against a team that has intercepted more passes than all but two teams in 2018.

THE GAME: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Over 51

Baker Mayfield and the entire Browns organization have finally been freed from the shackles of Hue Jackson. The incredibly underwhelming head coach has been holding this Browns offense back for years. For some perspective, Bill Belichick would have to lose 867 straight games to match Jackson’s .205 career winning percentage. 

Through 8 weeks, the Cleveland Browns are +11 in turnover differential with a win percentage of .313 – the only NFL team since 1975 with a +11 margin to have a losing record. So it’s incredibly safe & accurate to suggest that the Browns offense will be better without Hue Jackson. 

This Browns offense will now be lead by Freddie Kitchens, who spent many seasons working alongside Bruce Arians and was quarterback coach during Carson Palmer’s 2015 Pro Bowl Season. 

This play is reliant upon the Browns increased offensive showing without Hue Jackson because we know Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will score points. The Chiefs lead the league in points per game (36.2) & yards per play (6.9) and are actually better away from home in both these categories. While the Browns currently hold the 3rd ranked DVOA defense, they haven’t been great over the last 3 weeks allowing an average of 32.2 points per game, good for 30th in the NFL. 

We’re expecting a bit of a shootout in this one, we like Mayfield free from Hue & Haley to get cooking with Freddie in the Kitchens (bad pun, we know) against a very suspect Chiefs Defense. Take the over and maybe have a good hard look at the Browns money line price, the model has them with a +5% edge. 

THE GAME: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Carolina -6.5

Last week we labelled the Carolina Panthers as the dark horse of the NFC. After walloping the Ravens (and destroying our Under play in the process), they are no longer flying under the radar. Cam Newton is playing superb football right now. It’s not quite at the 2015 MVP level but boy it’s close. 

Newton has really found his rhythm and the emergence of DJ Moore (and the return of Greg Olsen) has really helped. Cam Newton is currently completing 66.4% of his passes, a career high and has improved his yards per attempt and passer rating significantly on his last two seasons. 

Cam’s play paired with an impressive ground game alongside Christian McCaffrey has Carolina sitting 5th in Offensive DVOA. The Panthers laid 386 yards on a Ravens defense that averaged close to a 100 less than that all year and now face a Buccaneers defense that ranks dead last in opponent points per play by quite the margin. 

What’s the age-old mantra in the NFL? If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have one? That seems to be the case with the Buccaneers who will be returning to Ryan Fitzpatrick after benching Jameis Winston for his multiple interception performance. 

Winston was benched just three weeks after replacing Fitzpatrick for doing the exact same thing against Pittsburgh and Chicago. While Fitzmagic provided some fun and great offense throughout the first month of the season, he is just as likely to throw three interceptions than 300+ yards against the Panthers 17th ranked DVOA defense. 

The Bucs defense has allowed 30+ points in five of their seven games & the Panthers are 39-6 against the spread when they score 33+ points. We like the Panthers to put up plenty of points in this one and cover the 6.5 point spread at home.  

THE GAME: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

WHEN: Monday 8:05am AEST

THE PLAY: Seattle -1.5 & Over 47.5

It’s a rare DOUBLE PLAY from us!

As we said last week, the Seahawks have quietly been one of the best teams in the league over the last month and that was on display as they easily accounted for the Lions on the road. They now return home sitting 6th overall in DVOA and their defense, without the household superstars, has risen to second in DVOA. 

The biggest reason for Seattle’s rise has been the improved play of their offensive line which is benefitting from the lack of Tom Cable’s coaching and direction. The offensive line currently sits 14th in Football Outsiders Adj. Line Yards metric after finishing 31st in 2017. 

The Chargers currently sit third in overall DVOA with their only two losses coming to the teams ranked directly above them (the lairy Chiefs & undefeated Rams). The Chargers offense has been humming all season and still put up plenty of yards & points without Melvin Gordon last start (he’ll be back in this one). 

Philip Rivers has quietly put up MVP like numbers, throwing 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions while ranking third in the league in passer rating. Much like the Seahawks offense, the Chargers defense has a good month and rank second in opponent points per game over their last three starts. 

We’re expecting quite an epic battle from both offenses here & that’s why we like the over. Both rank in the top 6 in yards per play over their last three starts, both have consistently topped the 20 point mark all season, Seattle are coming off a season-high 413 yards & the total has gone over in 5 of the Chargers last 7 games. 

The sole reason we lean towards Seattle in this one is the home-field advantage. Russell Wilson has an impeccable 12-0 straight up home record at CenturyLink Field when playing against AFC teams and includes wins over Tom Brady’s Patriots, Peyton Manning’s Broncos & Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers. Seattle edge out the win in a high scoring affair. 

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