NFL Betting Tips and Odds for Week 12, 2023
Last updated: Nov 26, 2023, 5:31AM | Published: Nov 26, 2023, 5:01AM
The best NFL betting tips for Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season have been unveiled.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our trusted computer model to simulate each NFL Week 12 game 10,000 times and find the best NFL bets for punters across the country.
Each one of the suggested bets for Week 12 of the NFL season come straight from the popular NFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
NFL Betting Tips: Week 12, 2023
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NFL games, our famous computer model has found the best American football bets for you in Week 12, 2023.
This week's NFL betting tips are led by Chargers vs Ravens and Falcons vs Saints, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Ravens -3.0 vs Chargers ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.70
- Edge: 8.9%
- Probability: 58.9%
- Match: Chargers vs Ravens (Monday, 12:20PM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best NFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Chargers and Ravens. We recommend placing a line bet on Ravens -3.0, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 8.9% for this particular wager, which makes it our NFL bet of the round.
MORE: NFL Value Bets Today
Saints -2.0 vs Falcons ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 58.2%
- Matchup: Falcons vs Saints (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout NFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Falcons and Saints. We recommend considering a line wager on Saints -2.0, available at $1.91 odds through TAB. We have found a compelling edge of 8.2% for this particular bet.
Rams -2.5 vs Cardinals ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 58.2%
- Matchup: Cardinals vs Rams (Monday, 8:05AM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's American football action comes from the matchup between the Cardinals and Rams. The play here is a line bet, with Rams -2.5 at enticing odds of $1.91 through TAB. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 8.2% for this particular wager.
Saints H2H vs Falcons ($1.77)
- Odds: $1.77 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.60
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 62.4%
- Match: Falcons vs Saints (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our next bet for Round 12 of the NFL season stems from the game between the Falcons and Saints. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the St Kilda to win, currently available at $1.77 odds through TAB. Our model has found a noteworthy 8.2% edge for this particular bet.
Patriots H2H vs Giants ($1.49)
- Odds: $1.49 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.40
- Edge: 6.9%
- Probability: 71.4%
- Matchup: Giants vs. Patriots (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Next up, we're looking at the Giants vs. Patriots matchup. Our model has its eyes on Patriots to win, coming in at $1.49 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at TAB to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 6.9% edge here.
NFL Best Bets for Week 12, 2023
- Chargers vs Ravens: Ravens -3.0 ($1.91 at TAB, 8.9% edge)
- Falcons vs Saints: Saints -2.0 ($1.91 at TAB, 8.2% edge)
- Cardinals vs Rams: Rams -2.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 8.2% edge)
- Falcons vs Saints: Saints to win ($1.77 at TAB, 8.2% edge)
- Giants vs Patriots: Patriots to win ($1.49 at TAB, 6.9% edge)
MORE: Every NFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NFL Week 12 Games to Bet on This Week
- Jaguars vs Texans (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Steelers vs Bengals (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Panthers vs Titans (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Saints vs Falcons (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Buccaneers vs Colts (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Patriots vs Giants (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Browns vs Broncos (Monday, 8:05AM)
- Rams vs Cardinals (Monday, 8:05AM)
- Bills vs Eagles (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Chiefs vs Raiders (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Ravens vs Chargers (Monday, 12:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our NFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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