NFL Betting Tips and Odds for Week 14, 2023
Last updated: Dec 10, 2023, 5:31AM | Published: Dec 10, 2023, 5:02AM
The best NFL betting tips for Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has conducted 10,000 simulations of each NFL Week 14 match to produce reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NFL bets for punters across the country.
All of the recommended bets for Week 14 of the NFL season come directly from the popular NFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
NFL Betting Tips: Week 14, 2023
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's NFL games, our famous computer model has determined the best American football bets for Week 14, 2023.
This week's NFL betting tips are led by multiple bets from the Jets vs Texans game, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Texans H2H vs Jets ($1.54)
- Odds: $1.54 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.38
- Edge: 10.3%
- Probability: 72.5%
- Match: Jets vs Texans (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best NFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Jets and Texans. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Texans to win, currently offered at odds of $1.54 at TAB. We have detected a significant edge of 10.3% for this particular wager, which makes it our NFL bet of the round.
MORE: NFL Value Bets Today
Texans -3.5 vs Jets ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.66
- Edge: 10.3%
- Probability: 60.3%
- Matchup: Jets vs Texans (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout NFL bet, again in the matchup featuring the Jets and Texans. We recommend considering a line wager on Texans -3.5, available at $1.91 odds through TAB. We have found a compelling edge of 10.3% for this particular bet.
Vikings -3.0 vs Raiders ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.70
- Edge: 8.9%
- Probability: 58.9%
- Matchup: Raiders vs Vikings (Monday, 8:05AM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's American football action comes from the game between the Raiders and Vikings. The play here is a line bet, with Vikings -3.0 at enticing odds of $1.91 through TAB. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 8.9% for this particular wager.
Cowboys -3.0 vs Eagles ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.70
- Edge: 8.9%
- Probability: 58.9%
- Match: Cowboys vs Eagles (Monday, 12:20PM AEDT)
Our next edge for Round 14 of the NFL season stems from the game between the Cowboys and Eagles. The play here is a line bet on the Cowboys -3.0, currently available at $1.91 odds through TAB. Our model has found a noteworthy 8.9% edge for this particular bet.
Vikings H2H vs Raiders ($1.65)
- Odds: $1.65 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.49
- Edge: 8.6%
- Probability: 66.9%
- Matchup: Raiders vs. Vikings (Monday, 8:05AM AEDT)
Next up, we're looking at the Raiders vs. Vikings game. Our model has its eyes on Vikings to win, coming in at $1.65 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at TAB to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 8.6% edge here.
NFL Best Bets for Week 14, 2023
- Jets vs Texans: Texans to win ($1.54 at TAB, 10.3% edge)
- Jets vs Texans: Texans -3.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 10.3% edge)
- Raiders vs Vikings: Vikings -3.0 ($1.91 at TAB, 8.9% edge)
- Cowboys vs Eagles: Cowboys -3.0 ($1.91 at TAB, 8.9% edge)
- Raiders vs Vikings: Vikings to win ($1.65 at TAB, 8.6% edge)
MORE: Every NFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NFL Week 14 Games to Bet on This Week
- Panthers vs Saints (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Rams vs Ravens (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Colts vs Bengals (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Jaguars vs Browns (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Lions vs Bears (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Buccaneers vs Falcons (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Texans vs Jets (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Seahawks vs 49ers (Monday, 8:05AM)
- Vikings vs Raiders (Monday, 8:05AM)
- Bills vs Chiefs (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Broncos vs Chargers (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Eagles vs Cowboys (Monday, 12:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter NFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our NFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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