NFL Betting Tips and Odds for Week 15, 2023
Last updated: Dec 17, 2023, 5:31AM | Published: Dec 17, 2023, 5:02AM
The best NFL betting tips for Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season have been unveiled.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate every NFL Week 15 match 10,000 times and find the best NFL bets for punters across the nation.
Each one of our recommended bets for Week 15 of the NFL season come straight from the popular NFL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
NFL Betting Tips: Week 15, 2023
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NFL games, our famous computer model has found the best American football bets for Week 15, 2023.
This week's NFL betting tips feature multiple bets from the Panthers vs Falcons game, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Falcons H2H vs Panthers ($1.65)
- Odds: $1.65 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.43
- Edge: 11.8%
- Probability: 70.1%
- Match: Panthers vs Falcons (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best NFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Panthers and Falcons. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Falcons to win, currently offered at odds of $1.65 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 11.8% for this particular wager, which makes it our NFL bet of the round.
MORE: NFL Value Bets Today
Falcons -3.0 vs Panthers ($2.08)
- Odds: $2.08 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.70
- Edge: 10.8%
- Probability: 58.9%
- Matchup: Panthers vs Falcons (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout NFL bet, again in the game featuring the Panthers and Falcons. We recommend considering a line wager on Falcons -3.0, available at $2.08 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 10.8% for this particular bet.
Jaguars +3.5 vs Ravens ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.65
- Edge: 10.6%
- Probability: 60.6%
- Matchup: Jaguars vs Ravens (Monday, 12:20PM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's American football action comes from the game between the Jaguars and Ravens. The play here is a line bet, with Jaguars +3.5 at enticing odds of $1.91 through TAB. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 10.6% for this particular wager.
Browns H2H vs Bears ($1.68)
- Odds: $1.68 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.56
- Edge: 7.0%
- Probability: 64.2%
- Match: Browns vs Bears (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Our next edge for Round 15 of the NFL season stems from the game between the Browns and Bears. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Browns to win, currently available at $1.68 odds through TAB. Our model has found a noteworthy 7.0% edge for this particular bet.
Dolphins H2H vs Jets ($1.24)
- Odds: $1.24 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.19
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 83.9%
- Matchup: Dolphins vs. Jets (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Next up, we're looking at the Dolphins vs. Jets game. Our model has its eyes on Dolphins to win, coming in at $1.24 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at TAB to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 6.2% edge here.
NFL Best Bets for Week 15, 2023
- Panthers vs Falcons: Falcons to win ($1.65 at TAB, 11.8% edge)
- Panthers vs Falcons: Falcons -3.0 ($2.08 at Betfair, 10.8% edge)
- Jaguars vs Ravens: Jaguars +3.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 10.6% edge)
- Browns vs Bears: Browns to win ($1.68 at TAB, 7.0% edge)
- Dolphins vs Jets: Dolphins to win ($1.24 at TAB, 6.2% edge)
MORE: Every NFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NFL Week 15 Games to Bet on This Week
- Buccaneers vs Packers (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Falcons vs Panthers (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Giants vs Saints (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Chiefs vs Patriots (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Texans vs Titans (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Bears vs Browns (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Jets vs Dolphins (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Commanders vs Rams (Monday, 8:05AM)
- 49ers vs Cardinals (Monday, 8:05AM)
- Cowboys vs Bills (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Ravens vs Jaguars (Monday, 12:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed NFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our NFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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