NFL Betting Tips and Odds for Week 9, 2023
Nov 5, 2023, 5:02AM
The best NFL betting tips for Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every NFL Week 9 game to produce accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NFL bets for punters all over the country.
Each one of the recommended bets for Week 9 of the NFL season come directly from the renowned NFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
NFL Betting Tips: Week 9, 2023
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NFL matches, our independent computer model has determined the best American football bets for Week 9, 2023.
This week's NFL betting tips feature Panthers vs Colts and Bengals vs Bills, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.
Panthers +2.5 vs Colts ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.77
- Edge: 6.5%
- Probability: 56.5%
- Match: Panthers vs Colts (Monday, 8:05AM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best NFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Panthers and Colts. We recommend placing a line bet on Panthers +2.5, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have detected a significant edge of 6.5% for this particular wager, which makes it our NFL bet of the round.
MORE: NFL Value Bets Today
Bills +2.5 vs Bengals ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.77
- Edge: 6.5%
- Probability: 56.5%
- Matchup: Bengals vs Bills (Monday, 12:20PM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout NFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Bengals and Bills. We recommend considering a line wager on Bills +2.5, available at $1.91 odds through TAB. We have found a compelling edge of 6.5% for this particular bet.
Browns H2H vs Cardinals ($1.13)
- Odds: $1.13 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.11
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 90.3%
- Matchup: Browns vs Cardinals (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's American football action comes from the matchup between the Browns and Cardinals. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Browns to win at enticing odds of $1.13 through TAB. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 5.7% for this particular wager.
Panthers vs Colts Under 44 Points ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.80
- Edge: 5.6%
- Probability: 55.6%
- Match: Panthers vs Colts (Monday, 8:05AM AEDT)
Our next bet for Round 9 of the NFL season stems from the game between the Panthers and Colts. The play here is an over/under bet on the Under 44 Points, currently available at $1.91 odds through TAB. Our model has detected a noteworthy 5.6% edge for this particular bet.
Texans H2H vs Buccaneers ($1.65)
- Odds: $1.65 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.57
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 63.5%
- Matchup: Texans vs. Buccaneers (Monday, 5:00AM AEDT)
Next up, we're looking at the Texans vs. Buccaneers game. Our model has its eyes on Texans to win, coming in at $1.65 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at TAB to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 5.4% edge here.
NFL Best Bets for Week 9, 2023
- Panthers vs Colts: Panthers +2.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 6.5% edge)
- Bengals vs Bills: Bills +2.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 6.5% edge)
- Browns vs Cardinals: Browns to win ($1.13 at TAB, 5.7% edge)
- Panthers vs Colts: Under 44 Points ($1.91 at TAB, 5.6% edge)
- Texans vs Buccaneers: Texans to win ($1.65 at TAB, 5.4% edge)
MORE: Every NFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NFL Week 9 Games to Bet on This Week
- Dolphins vs Chiefs (Monday, 1:30AM)
- Vikings vs Falcons (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Seahawks vs Ravens (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Bears vs Saints (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Cardinals vs Browns (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Buccaneers vs Texans (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Commanders vs Patriots (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Rams vs Packers (Monday, 5:00AM)
- Colts vs Panthers (Monday, 8:05AM)
- Cowboys vs Eagles (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Giants vs Raiders (Monday, 8:25AM)
- Bills vs Bengals (Monday, 12:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed NFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our NFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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