Week Four of the NFL functioned as something of a reckoning for so much of the competition.

A quarter of the season in, the league has splintered into distinct groups, with three teams still undefeated, plus six who have failed to register a single win as yet, and a massive middle-class wedged in between.

This past weekends' set of games provided further clarity upon just who are legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2019 and who’ll be more focused on their draft position come season’s end.

With 63 games in the books, the Stats Insider NFL Futures model has been busy crunching the numbers and has identified eight teams with a better than 4% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy this season.

Today, we analyse those eight franchises a little further to determine who among them can be considered legitimate contenders and if there are perhaps one or two pretenders lurking in the pack.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 20.5%

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The New England Patriots might not be human. The juggernaut has rolled along in recent seasons, picking up half a dozen Super Bowl titles over the last two decades, while winning the last ten AFC East crowns. Most worrisome for the rest of the NFL is that they don’t seem to be slowing down.

They’ve jumped out to a 4-0 start in 2019. with the most menacing defense coach Bill Belichick has had at his disposal in some time.

Football Outsider’s famed DVOA ranking have them as the league’s #1 ranked defense, which has already produced a league-high ten turnovers while reducing opposition QB Rating to just 41.0. While their pass defence is simply outstanding (ten interceptions, opposition 52% pass completion rate) it’s also getting its fair share of pressure on QB’s too, with their 32 QB Hits and 18 total sacks the kind of numbers only the Carolina Panthers possess.

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ACHILLES HEEL: Don’t say it too loudly, but perhaps the game’s greatest of all time, QB, Tom Brady, hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this season. At least, not yet.

At 42 years old, Brady’s game isn’t as expansive as it once was, and, while he does have just one interception on the year to date, his long ball simply isn't as prevalent as it once was, while he's also not producing huge passing games. So far in 2019, he has just three passes over 40 yards or more, while his 1,069 total pass yards is good for just 15^th in the league.

THE PUNT RETURN PODCAST: Uneven Power Balance - NFC Loaded / AFC Weak?

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 17.7%

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This offense is every bit as outrageous as it was in 2018, and might even be better in 2019.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback - and MVP favourite Patrick Mahomes - has electrified the league this year - leading the NFL for both yards (1,510), and touchdowns thrown (10). 

His incredible skillset - coupled with the offensive genius of head coach, Andy Reid - will ensure headaches for opposition teams each week. The Chiefs are presently on a 28-game streak scoring at least 21 points, having gone 21-7 in that timespan.

ACHILLES HEEL: Their defense is still full of question marks. The Chiefs embarked on a massive overhaul on a unit that was ultimately their downfall last year, with a 26^th ranked DVOA defence that leaked 37 points and 524 total yards to the New England Patriots during last year’s AFC Championship game.

Not only did the Chiefs bring in the likes of Frank Clark to improve the pass rush, and Tyrann Matthieu to shore up the secondary, but they even fired their long-time defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, replacing him with the revered Steve Spagnuolo.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the change hasn’t had a huge effect on their defense so far. While they have jumped to 18^th from a DVOA perspective, this is a unit that that continues to get burnt on the ground, with only the Miami Dolphins giving up more than Kansas City’s 599 rushing yards, while their pass rush has produced just 18 QB hits on the season, ranked 7^th worst in the league.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 7.7%

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The New Orleans Saints have been able to withstand the highest-profile injury of the season to date, with franchise legend, Drew Brees, seriously injuring his thumb in Week 2. 

With back-up quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater stepping in, the Saints have won both their matchups so far (away to Seattle and home to the Cowboys), producing just two offensive turnovers across the two games, while jumping out to a division-best 3-1 record.

The Saints' defense has stepped up incredibly well in Brees' absence, limiting the Cowboys to just ten points and 257 total yards.

Most encouraging for New Orleans, is the form of second-year defensive end Marcus Davenport who leads the team with 8 QB hits, which, although have so far translated to just one sack, is perhaps vindication of how much capital the Saints gave up in the 2018 NFL Draft to secure him at #14 overall.

ACHILLES HEEL: Now known as Drew Brees’ thumb. There’s no doubting the legend that is Drew Brees, however, his injury was serious enough for him to project to miss half the season. While he’ll no doubt return to the line-up at some point, the big question is will he be able to step in and have an immediate impact?

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LA RAMS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 6.1%

PRETENDERS

Still boasting a 3-1 record heading into Week 5, the LA Rams all of a sudden look run of the mill. While this team did make last year’s Super Bowl, it did benefit greatly from a famously bad refereeing decision in the NFC Championship, while its' second-half dipped greatly in 2018 which unfortunately looks to have carried over into this season as well.

The Rams offence looks nowhere near as threatening, which isn’t helped by the lack of production of 2-time All-Pro running back, Todd Gurley, who has just 49 carries on the year (23^rd highest mark in the NFL). QB Jared Goff has already thrown six interceptions in 2018 (he threw 12 total all of last season) with his QB Rating dipping to an alarming 82.9, down from 101.1 in 2018, which played a huge part in the Rams recently granting him a massive four-year, $134 million extension

THE PUNT RETURN PODCAST: What's wrong with the LA Rams?

PATH TO CONTENTION: Head coach, Sean McVay. The Rams’ coach is one of the most progressive minds in the sport, who has rapidly transformed the Rams into a legitimate NFL force. While his players were served a football lesson on the NFL’s biggest stage last February by the Patriots, he’s continually proven his ability to adapt and improvise, which are areas the Rams will need every ounce of in 2019 if they’re able to get themselves back into contention.

[Editor's note: LA lost to Seattle 30-29 on Week 5 Thursday night football and now sit 3-2 on the season.]

DALLAS COWBOYS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 5.2%

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How 'bout dem 'Boys? 

In all seriousness, this is one of the most potent Dallas Cowboys squads in many a year having jumped out to a 3-0 start courtesy of extremely gentle scheduling.

While the Cowboys did succumb to the Saints in Week 4 night for their first loss, the signs are extremely positive about this year’s group, with only the all-conquering Kansas City Chiefs measuring better from an offensive DVOA point of view.

First-year offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, continues to enhance Dak Prescott's QB production - and quest for a supercharged contract extension - while the run game has already produced two-200+ yard performances with Ezekiel Elliot leading the way.

ACHILLES HEEL: The offensive line’s health. So much of what Dallas has achieved in recent seasons has been predicated on its seriously talented offensive line, which has been a top-ten unit for seven straight seasons.

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While this year’s line is ranked fifth overall, injuries are starting to mount up, with 6-time Pro-Bowl Tyron Smith injuring his ankle and expected to miss several weeks, while La’el Collins and Zak Martin are also injured with big question marks as to their ongoing availability.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 4.8%

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GM Howie Roseman has built one of the deepest and most talented squads in the league with a fully healthy Carson Wentz driving the Philadelphia Eagles ship.

While their 2-2 mark to date isn’t exactly glowing, this was a team who went into Lambeau Field and blew the previously undefeated - and highly regarded - Green Bay Packers out of the water, with their run game terrorising the Packers to the tune of 176 yards and two touchdowns.

Wentz, too, has looked excellent so far, already throwing for 9 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, with his offensive line doing an excellent job keeping him upright with a 4.5% sack percentage, ranking #9 in the league.

ACHILLES’ HEEL: Without doubt a secondary which is one of the league’s weakest units.

The Eagles are ranked 23^rd in the league from a DVOA pass defense perspective, having given up 5 passing plays of more than 40 yards, which is a number only the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants can claim to be worse than, while the 323.8 passing yards per game they’re conceding through the air is indeed the NFL’s very worst mark.

If the Birdgang is to challenge for its second Super Bowl in three seasons they simply have to improve in this area, while it’s also a factor as to why they’ve been so heavily linked with the Jacksonville Jaguar’s two-time pro-bowl cornerback, Jalen Ramsey.

CHICAGO BEARS

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY:  4.1%

PRETENDERS

Despite an outrageously good defense which has once again been the driving force behind its 3-1 start, this Chicago Bears team is sorely lacking from an offensive point of view.

Two of Chicago’s three wins have been achieved with scores of just 16, while they’re yet to accumulate more than 300 total yards in a single game so far. They’re ranked a lowly 26^th in offensive DVOA with their 4.4 yards per play a number only the winless New York Jets and Miami Dolphins can claim to be performing worse in.

PATH TO CONTENTION: Though it’s not the kindest thing to suggest, the dislocation of QB Mitch Trubisky’s shoulder offers career NFL back-up, Chase Daniel, the opportunity to deliver something other than below-average play at the sports’ most important position.

Trubisky was only able to produce an 81.0 QB rating in his four games, throwing just 3 TDs and being sacked eight times. Daniel already stepped in for 30 pass attempts in their win against the Minnesota Vikings, tossing a TD, while throwing for 195 yards without an interception. While those aren’t jump-off-the-page numbers (and the sample is rather small) they are a welcome addition as far as some of Chicago’s talented offensive players such as Allen Robinson, Tarik Cohen and rookie running back, David Montgomery are concerned.

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GREEN BAY PACKERS 

STATS INSIDER SUPER BOWL PROBABILITY: 4%

PRETENDERS

Aaron Rodgers isn’t the same early-decade, two-time MVP QB he once was, and because the Green Bay Packers seem to have a complete inability to stop the rush.

While Rodgers is still capable of the absolute extraordinary, his game has tapered off in recent years with his 267.3 pass yards per game, and 95.4 QB rating amongst career lows. At 35 years of age, and after multiple surgeries, his mobility has been hampered with the future Hall of Famer limited to just 53 rushing yards so far in 2019.

Most concerning, however, for the Packers, is the fact that they are continually being gashed by opposing running backs. The Packers rush defense is ranked #27 from a DVOA perspective, having surrendered an average of 181.3 rushing yards per game over their last three matches.

PATH TO CONTENTION: If the Packers can somehow remedy their weak rush defense, they actually have an excellent squad in place which could provide them a path to genuine contention.

While their rush defence is struggling mightily, their pass defence is ranked 5^th in the league with Jaire Alexander in All-Pro form, while getting excellent assistance from rookie safety, Darnell Savage, while Blake Martinez leads the league with 47 tackles. 

In addition, and though Rodgers isn’t tearing up the league, he’s the kind of QB almost the entire league would give up their left arm to have behind centre. We know to never rule out Aaron Rodgers.

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