NFL Punting Preview: Week 5
Last updated: Oct 5, 2018, 8:05AM | Published: Oct 5, 2018, 4:28AM
The first four weeks of the 2018 NFL season have been spectacular. It’s one of the most fun and entertaining starts to a season we can remember. A big reason for this has been dominant offenses destroying defences.
Teams are putting up staggering numbers. This season has seen more points, touchdowns, and passing touchdowns through four weeks than any other season in history.
Lack of Quarterback injuries, increased offensive penalties (we’ve seen a historic rate of 1st downs via penalty this season), a plethora of promising young quarterbacks and the emergence of great coaches putting those quarterbacks in a position to succeed are all part of the reasons for this scoring boom.
We don’t mind though, because it means fun and fruitful football. Week four cleared the air a little bit on a few of the surprising teams as Miami were exposed, Buffalo crashed back to Earth in a big way and the Fitzmagic cycle reached its crescendo.
Week 4 was a successful week for us on The Punt Return Podcast and you can hear all of our thoughts on every Week 5 game on this week’s edition. Here are our five favourite plays for this week.
THE GAME: GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Over 51
Before their shutout victory over a lacklustre Bills offense, the Packers played in three straight overs games. They now face a Detroit Lions offense that is starting to find it’s feet offensively after a pathetic opening-round showing against the Jets.
Since that disastrous performance, the Lions have scored 24 points and more and they have unearthed some balance on offense in the form of Kerryon Johnson. Johnson compliments this aerial attack that features three excellent receivers in Marvin Jones, Golden Tate & Kenny “Babytron” Golladay.
The Lions have also seen the total go Over in all of their games except one, the lone exception was a Matt Patricia masterclass against his former team.
The Packers offense will be missing some of it’s receiving talent but Aaron Jones has provided plenty of spark on the ground game since his return from suspension and Aaron Rodgers seems to be moving a lot better now that he is a month removed from his knee injury.
The total has gone Over in the Packers last five games against the Lions with an average score of 52 points. We like the Over here even if the model favours the Under 51 with a +1% edge. The model also likes the Lions here as a home underdog with a +3% edge to them head to head.
THE GAME: NEW YORK GIANTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Carolina -6.5
The 2-1 Carolina Panthers come into this well rested and will fancy their chances against an underwhelming Giants outfit. While we don’t agree in principle with bye weeks in Week 4, we will favour a team coming off a bye at home against an inferior team.
The Panthers come into this one with the No.1 Ranked Rushing offense and with the Giants ranking 29th in Rushing DVOA defense, we expect to see plenty of yardage from McCaffrey (akin to Kamara last week) and Newton.
The Giants front office believed drafting a freakazoid running back 2nd overall in the draft would solve their offensive woes and, unfortunately, it has not happened as the Giants rank 22nd in Offensive DVOA. While Saquon Barkley has been fine, he’s proven you need pieces up front to run the ball effectively. Odell Beckham Jr finished with 10 catches for 77 yards last week but at one point in the game had 5 catches for 9 yards.
Carolina is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in its last three games following the bye and we expect them to extend that trend. The Giants haven’t scored over 30 points in a game since 2015 and have failed to score more than 18 points in three of their last four. The model has no opinion on this one yet.
THE GAME: DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK JETS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Denver +2
Since their dominant week one win over the hapless Lions, the Jets have lost three straight and have only managed to put up 12, 17 & 12 points. Most of that blame lies on rookie QB Sam Darnold who’s thrown four interceptions and only 2 touchdowns on his way to a passer rating has dropped to 62.3.
His yards per attempt over the last 2 games is a measly 5.2 and he now faces a Broncos defense that slowed down the electric Patrick Mahomes. The Broncos defense isn’t as prolific as years past, but their players match up well here against the Jets skill position players.
Chubb, Miller, Wolfe & Co will like their chances of some sacks against an offensive line that has given up 10 already. The only concern here is Case Keenum. Keenum has not lived up to expectation as the starting quarterback and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in 3 consecutive games.
Despite these Keenum performances, the Broncos offense has still moved the chains on the ground through rookie running backs Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay.
The Broncos have won their last three games against the Jets with an average winning margin of just over 13 points. We expect that streak to continue here even on a short week and travelling across the country. We’ll take Broncos +2. This is another game where the model has no opinion yet, that may change as we approach kick off.
THE GAME: BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
WHEN: Monday 4:00am AEST
THE PLAY: Baltimore -3
The main takeaway in last week’s overtime blockbuster between the Browns and the Raiders was the officiating. The Browns were on the bad end of some questionable decisions by the Zebras that handed the game to Oakland.
The performance of the Browns was overlooked as their defense gave up nearly 600 yards to Raiders offense. Baker Mayfield and the 42 points on offense looks promising but they also had four turnovers.
They now face a Ravens defense that held an effective Steelers offense under 300 total yards and kept them scoreless in the second half. This 3rd ranked DVOA defense is also getting one of its stars back in cornerback Jimmy Smith.
The Ravens offense might not be as potent as Gruden’s Raiders but it is still pretty damn good, they are averaging over 300 yards and 30 points a game.
Yes, the Browns are more dangerous than they have ever been but these Ravens might be the most complete team in the AFC. They’re 5-0 against the spread in their last five vs the Browns and we think that will continue despite the model’s fondness of the Browns here. The Cleveland money line is orange lit here making it a small play for the model.
THE GAME: MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
WHEN: Monday 7:25am AEST
THE PLAY: Over 46.5
We’ve seen low scoring affairs so far this season at Lincoln Financial Field but we think that will change here. Both teams had very strong defences last season but we haven’t quite seen that form carry over into this season.
This is especially evident in the Vikings who find themselves ranked 25th in both overall defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA. Carson Wentz has improved in every game since his comeback from a torn ACL and this will be his second game with a full arsenal of weapons with Alshon Jeffery making his season debut last week.
We think the Eagles, with that offensive line, can give Wentz adequate time to attack this defense. While the Eagles are still a top 10 DVOA defense they have shown they are prone to leak yards especially to opposing wide receivers (Corey Davis, Julio Jones and DeSean Jackson all had 100+ yardage days).
The loss of Rodney McLeod has them looking quite vulnerable and the Vikings lead the NFL in passing percentage. Kirk Cousins is locked in on Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs and that was evident in their prolific performance last week. If the Vikings Offensive Line can hold up, they should put up points.
The total has gone over in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road and this play is the Punt Return Podcast’s “Lock of the Week” with the Stats Insider Model having the Over a +3% play. The “Lock of the Week” is 3-1 to start the 2018 season.
