NRL Schedule Difficulty

Stats Insider's Schedule Difficulty attempts to forecast how easy (or difficult) a team's upcoming fixtures are. The opposition's team rating and home ground advantage are the main factors in grading the difficulty of the fixture. The overall schedule difficulty is an aggregation of all the matches the team is yet to play.

So, let's take a look at how the schedule could determine the final look of the NRL ladder by the end of Round 25.

Jostling For The Top Four

The Storm have the top spot on the ladder all but locked up already. With their remaining schedule just a touch more difficult than the hypothetical average, the benchmark team of the competition and current 32.9% favourites for the premiership should sail through to the end of Round 25.

Storm: @ Broncos, @ Rabbitohs, Raiders, Titans, @ Sea Eagles, Cowboys

It's the race to fill the top four that will come down to the wire.

The general consensus is that the Rabbitohs and Roosters will fill out the 2nd and 3rd spots. Like the Storm, the Rabbits and Chooks don't sway too far from the relative average across the competition over the last six rounds.

Rabbitohs: @ Sharks, Storm, Bulldogs, @ Broncos, @ Warriors, Roosters

Roosters: Titans, @ Raiders, Warriors, @ Dragons, Panthers, @ Rabbitohs

That leaves the Raiders and Sea Eagles in the hunt for 4th.

The dark horses for the premiership, they're fighting for the right for a second chance in Week 2 of the finals should they need it. 

Both teams are in great form and relatively healthy.

Canberra has won six of their last seven games to finally become a consistent part of the premiership conversation while Manly has won five of their last six including their Round 19 win over the Storm. The two sides couldn't be entering the final six weeks in a much better position. 

It's going to be difficult for either to keep up this run of results, though.

<ad>

Outside of the Warriors absolute horror run home, the Raiders and Sea Eagles have the second and third most difficult remaining schedule.

Raiders: @ Warriors, Roosters, @ Storm, Sea Eagles, @ Sharks, Warriors

Sea Eagles: Knights, @ Warriors, Tigers, @ Raiders, Storm, @ Eels

The match between the two clubs in Round 23 could well be the decider.

While both clubs have their eyes on the top four, a fall down the ladder isn't out of the question, particularly when you consider that the Eels have the easiest remaining schedule of all 16 clubs.

Eels: @ Dragons, Knights, @ Titans, Bulldogs, @ Broncos, Sea Eagles

Sitting 6th on the ladder just two points behind the Sea Eagles and four points behind the Raiders, the Eels aren't out of the hunt for the top four just yet. 

They've only won two games away from Bankwest Stadium all season; Round 15 in Darwin and Round 4 at ANZ Stadium. With three of their last six games away from home, the Eels will need to pick up an away win to be a genuine chance at claiming 4th on the ladder by the end of Round 25.

Filling Out The Top 8

With seven teams trying to fit into two or three spots in the Top 8, the next six weeks will make or break their season.

The Panthers and Broncos currently occupy 7th and 8th, but the Knights, Sharks, Tigers, Warriors and Cowboys are all trying to squeeze in. Only four competition points separate the Panthers in 7th and Cowboys at 13th.

We can all but knock the Warriors off the list from here. To add to the controversy of Round 19, that game against the Eels acts as their easiest over the final seven weeks. It's almost all top-five opposition from here for the Warriors as they head into the final quarter of the season with the most difficult schedule in the competition.

Warriors: Raiders, Sea Eagles, @ Roosters, @ Sharks, Rabbitohs, @ Raiders

The Broncos have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule but do have the advantage of playing the Storm and Rabbitohs at Suncorp. While it doesn't have the fortress reputation it has done in recent years, the Broncos have only lost one of their last six games at Queensland's home of rugby league.

Anthony Seibold looks good to pull off what was once a very unlikely Top 8 finish in his first year in charge. 

Broncos: Storm, @ Cowboys, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Eels, @ Bulldogs

The Panthers made their move towards the finals on the back of a seven-game winning streak but copped a reality check in Round 19. Lucky for them, Penrith's run home is the fourth-easiest in the competition. What once looked like a fantasy finals appearance is all of a sudden a very real possibility. 

Panthers: @ Bulldogs, Sharks, @ Broncos, @ Cowboys, @ Roosters, Knights

Should the string of away games catch the Panthers out, the Sharks are circling with a run at home acting as an ideal launchpad for a finals push. Cronulla's schedule ranks in the middle of the pack, but three games at home without needing to leave Sydney once more this season could generate serious momentum. 

Sharks: Rabbitohs, @ Panthers, Dragons, Warriors, Raiders, @ Tigers

<ad>

While the Knights have lost four in a row and five of their last six, we've seen what they can do when playing their best football. The six-game winning streak through the middle of the season may have had some holes in it, but it doesn't take away from the fact that the Knights produced convincing and consistent results throughout. They have the fifth-easiest run into September. There's hope for an end to the finals drought in Newcastle if they can win one of their next two away from home.

Knights:  @ Sea Eagles, @ Eels, Cowboys, @ Tigers, Titans, @ Panthers

As the team on the longest finals-less streak in the NRL, the expectation is that the Tigers once again fall short. Look, they're hardly banging the door down and consistency continues to elude them. You'd be brave to bet anything more than a sandwich on the Tigers sneaking into the Top 8. However, they do have the second-easiest remaining schedule. The money-making home games are over. The Tigers are back at Leichhardt Oval and Campbelltown Stadium for three of their last six games.

Tigers: Cowboys, @ Bulldogs, @ Sea Eagles, Knights, @ Dragons, Sharks

On the outside and with their calculators out, the Cowboys need to win all six of their remaining games to lock in a spot in the Top 8. Five might do it, but their current -77 points differential is the worst of the seven-team peloton chasing a place in September. With an average remaining schedule in relation to the rest of the competition, another end-of-season Cinderella run isn't out of the question. 

Cowboys: @ Tigers, Broncos, @ Knights, Panthers, Bulldogs, @ Storm

The Cellar Dwellers

It seems to be an annual tradition for Dragons fans, but they're calling for Paul McGregor's head with the side now only considered a mathematical chance of making the Top 8. The Red V will need to win all six of their remaining games just to be in with a sniff, and will need to do so by significant margins to turn their current -104 points differential into anything positive. It's all doom and gloom for the Dragons with the third-easiest schedule offering little hope of a miracle.

Dragons: Eels, Titans, @ Sharks, Roosters, Tigers, @ Titans

The Bulldogs may sit at 15th on the ladder through 19 rounds, but this is their time of year. Deep into the rebuild and never a realistic chance at playing finals football, the Dogs will be looking to replicate their finish to the 2018 season. They won four of their last six games including three wins over eventual finals teams. Their sixth-hardest schedule is more of a worry for their opposition teams who can't afford to take an effort side like the Bulldogs lightly. 

Bulldogs: Panthers, Tigers, @ Rabbitohs, @ Eels, @ Cowboys, Broncos

Fourth-hardest schedule or not, the Titans are going to struggle through to the end of the season regardless. This playing group has never come together and is unlikely to do so without a full-time head coach. Justin Holbrook is rumoured to be on his way. However, his St Helen's side sits at the top of the Super League table with Holbrook unlikely to give his new club any attention until the end of the year. It's looking like a spoon season for the Titans.

Titans: @ Roosters, @ Dragons, Eels, @ Storm, @ Knights, Titans

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page (or on Twitter / Facebook) to tell us where you think the value is this week 👇