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NRL 2020: What's in it for the Bottom 6 teams?

The Storm, Roosters, Eels, Panthers and Raiders are all above 98% to finish Round 20 inside the Top 8. Meanwhile, anything short of finals football will be a big disappointment for the five teams (Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Knights and Tigers) trying to claim one of the three remaining spots

That leaves six teams already in the 'playing for pride' portion of the season. 

We're looking for the light at the end of the tunnel for these teams as they enter the final eight rounds.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

11th - 4 wins, 8 losses, -22 PD

Top Make Top 8: 2.4%

The St George-Illawarra Dragons have started to find form after a rough start to the 2020 season, and it's come through some consistency in their spine.

After naming five different fullbacks in 2019 and rotating three names through the jersey throughout the first four rounds in 2020, the Dragons finally landed on back Matthew Dufty. He's in career-best form and has secured the position for the long term as he becomes a key part to the Red V attack. 

While Ben Hunt and Cameron McInnes have rotated through hooker, the consistency at which having a capable key playmaker at dummy half has translated into an improved attack. Both offer excellent service and can steer the team around the park.

In Adam Clune, the Dragons have unearthed a consistent performer they can pair with anybody. What they need to do over the last two months of the season is decide who will partner Clune in the halves in 2021. Corey Norman's long overdue dropping has rumours swirling of his impending departure from the club. He as disappointed in 2020 and may well have lost his place in the side over the long-term if Hunt and Clune link up well in the coming weeks. 

It's not a perfect spine. Dufty is a liability when the Dragons are coming out of their own end, Clune is fairly limited in what he can create in attack, and Hunt's inconsistency tends to determine the overall performance of the side. If the Dragons can play a Dufty, Hunt, Clune and McInnes spine for the remainder of 2020, they'll have something to work with heading into 2021. 

New Zealand Warriors

12th - 4 wins, 8 losses, -135 PD

To Make Top 8: 2.0%

The light at the end of the tunnel won't draw any closer until the New Zealand Warriors secure a coach for 2021. Even then, it's unlikely Stephen Kearney's replacement significantly improves the side given Todd Payten has ruled himself out while the majority of the remaining targets aren't a guaranteed improvement on what they had. Nonetheless, determining a first-choice halves pairing and hooker will make things a lot easier for whoever does take over.

Kodi Nikorima is locked into the halves for Round 1 in 2021. He's developing an excellent combination with Eli Katoa and can be the main-man down a high-scoring left edge if the players around him can stay in the 17. The Warriors have scored 48% of their 29 tries down the left side in 2020 while Katoa has missed time to injury and Ken Maumalo is now out for the season.

The question is who will partner Nikorima moving forward. Chanel Harris-Tavita has been awarded the first crack at securing the number seven jersey in the wake of Blake Green's departure. Following a promising 2019 campaign in which Harris-Tavita's physicality in defence surprised a few people, he's not been able to produce with the ball in hand in 2020. While the 21-year-old has scored two tries, he's yet to break the line himself or hand out a try assist. He needs to offer more creativity in attack if he's to cement his position beside Nikorima in the halves.

Perhaps most importantly, uncovering a long-term option at hooker is paramount. Wayde Egan certainly isn't one of the first names down on the team sheet every week given his decidedly average form in 2020. Karl Lawton's utility value is arguably working against him with stints in the back row and centres keeping him away from his prefered position of dummy half. Ideally, Nathaniel Roache's injury problems will be behind him when he returns from his latest stint on the sideline (Round 14). He's the most talented of the trio and capable of being a top tier hooker in the NRL if he can stay healthy. 

The Warriors have holes across the field. Ben Murdoch-Masila's arrival won't be enough to clog up the middle. However, it's unlikely the club signs anybody else of quality for 2021 given their current circumstances. Identifying a six, seven and nine combination for the future is an achievable goal over the last two months of this season.

North Queensland Cowboys

13th - 3 wins, 9 losses, -123 PD

To Make Top 8: 1.1%

As mentioned when Paul Green announced his departure from the North Queensland Cowboys, he had changed his back-five 24 times across his last 34 matches. Interim coach, Josh Hannay, has since used two different combinations with a third to come in Round 13 making it 27 changes to the backline in North Queensland's last 37 matches.

While injuries to Michael Morgan and Valentine Holmes have contributed to their 10th-ranked 19.1 points per game, it's the lack of cohesion on the edges that really hurts them. Only the Broncos and Titans concede more points than the Cowboys' 26.1 per game.

Esan Marsters leads the NRL in try causes with 14 while Kyle Feldt is just behind him with 13. Ben Hampton has just been installed at five-eighth after registering 11 try causes in 10 games and Justin O'Neill's nine try causes in 11 games have been pushed out to the wing.

The Cowboys are stacked with talent. Their middle should be dominating week-in week-out to allow the likes of Morgan, Holmes and Scott Drinkwater to manufacture points. However, if they can't find a consistent backline that can work on stopping points from coming through the other way, the results will remain the same in 2021. 

Gold Coast Titans

14th - 3 wins, 9 losses, 173 PD

To Make Top 8: 0.4%

It might not matter what happens with the Gold Coast Titans for the remainder of 2020. The 2021 season will start with a buzz as Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and David Fifita arrive in town. Their arrival is enough to call the Titans pack one of the best in the competition with their ability to attack down the edges surely a focus for Justin Holbrook and his staff over the summer. 

Until then, the Titans could do with finding their long-term hooker. Preferably one that fits their timeline as a young, up-and-coming side expected to take a year or two to hit their stride. 

Mitch Rein (Round 1, 2, 7 & 8), Nathan Peats (3, 11, & 12), Erin Clark (4, 5, 6, 9 & 10) have all started at hooker this season. None have played well enough to warrant selection for more than four consecutive weeks. Peats and Rein will both finish this season in their 30's while the 22-year-old Clark looks more suited to being a low-cost back-up option to a long-term 80-minute performer. 

Whether it be in the open market or the raft of talent playing junior footy in Queensland, finding a dummy half that can grow alongside Fa'asuamaleaui, Fifita, Moeaki Fotuaika, AJ Brimson - and even a slowly improving Ash Taylor- will be a big factor in how quickly the Titans develop from wooden spooners into a Top 8 team.

Brisbane Broncos

15th - 3 wins, 9 losses, -205 PD

To Make Top 8: 0.6%

Play. Tom. Dearden. At. Seven.

Anthony Seibold is the latest coach to be sucked in by the Melbourne Storm shine with Brodie Croft his big off-season addition for 2020. To dig the Brisbane Broncos out of this hole and save his job, Seibold needs to admit defeat. Croft isn't the long-term option at halfback.

The organisational skills Croft was said to be bringing up to Brisbane haven't arrived. They probably never will. He has had ample opportunity to take the team by the scruff of the neck and lead them around the park. They crumble at the slightest sign of chaos, and Croft hasn't been able to bring the leadership and control required to steady the ship. 

What Dearden lacks in experience as a 19-year-old with only nine games of first-grade experience, he makes up for in his intent. He engages the line to create space for his outside men. His ball-skills and long-ball are far superior to what Croft offers, and while small in stature at just 177cm and 80kg, Dearden averages 59.5 running metres per game when playing 80 minutes. Croft, on the other hand, has averaged just 49.5 metres per game in 2020. 

Anthony Milford's injury is a blessing for Croft; he'd have been lucky to be selected this week otherwise. But regardless of what happens while Milford sits out for the next month, Dearden needs to finish the season in the halves.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

16th - 2 wins, 10 losses, -122 PD

To Make Top 8: 0.1%

When Trent Barrett sits down to assess his team for 2021 each week, he must wonder what he's getting himself into after the 80 minutes. There won't be a lot for him to work with when he arrives next season.

His spine will be the worst in the competition if Kieran Foran isn't re-signed. Even if the Kiwi international does come back, it will be tough to put their one, six, seven and nine combo ahead of anybody else. 

In the middle, it begins and ends with Luke Thompson. A team of workhorse middle forwards won't win too many football matches with the way the game is being played. Footwork and the option to ball-play are becoming increasingly important traits of a prop and lock. Thompson is the only standout in that department. The Bulldogs rank 14th in yardage with just 1,573 running metres per game in 2020.

Out wide, Jake Averillo offers some hope for the future and Will Hopoate is the sort of versatile veteran Canterbury needs right now. However, their current 12.5 points per game (16th) is a direct reflection of the lack of talent the Bulldogs have out wide. 

The Bulldogs attack has been awful for years. While their main source of points recently have come through Foran and Raymond Faitala-Mariner and has provided some consistency, that avenue will close sooner rather than later.

The light at the end of the tunnel extends further for the Bulldogs than any other club right now. They can best use the remaining eight rounds by identifying the dead weight and replacing it with younger talent. Forget the late-season winning runs the Bulldogs have managed in recent years. They haven't translated into success the following season anyway. Throw caution into the wind, try new things in attack, and use 2020 as a development season for future talent. 

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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