Despite Round 1 and 2 already showing on the NRL ladder, this is like the preseason all over again. The off-field controversies dominate headlines, players are training the house down, and footy fans are predicting what will happen over the next five months.

To help with those predictions, the Stats Insider Futures Model has crunched the numbers of all 16 teams to give us a better idea of what to expect.

As usual, it's good news for the Storm. There isn't a lot of panic over the 0-2 Roosters either. The Raiders won't surprise anybody this season by finishing towards the top of the ladder while the Knights carry genuine expectations into Round 3 and beyond.

As for the beloved Warriors, we're not going to witness a fairytale. They're down with the Titans, Bulldogs and Dragons as wooden spoon contenders.

Brisbane Broncos

They ran it a little too close for comfort in 2019, but the Broncos snuck into the Top 8 thanks to a Round 17 draw against the Warriors. The Stats Insider Model doesn't expect such a close shave in 2020, though. Already 2-0 following strong wins over the Cowboys (28-21) and Rabbitohs (22-18), the Broncos are at 72.1% to extend their finals streak to seven consecutive seasons.

The excellent forward pack might be a little bit too young and inexperienced to make a genuine run at the premiership (7%).

Canberra Raiders

Eight minutes away from at least forcing the 2019 NRL Grand Final into Golden Point, the Raiders are 17.8% to go one better in 2020.

It's all looking good so far for the Green Machine. Impressive in Round 1 and 2, George Williams looks right at home in the halves already while the new-look - and now temporary -  right side didn't have any problems getting to know each other. With John Bateman now only missing three or four games as opposed to 11 or 12 and Jordan Rapana back in Canberra, the Raiders are in an excellent position to improve on their 4th spot on the ladder in 2019 and earn themselves a more comfortable trip to the season finale.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The Model isn't a fan of the Bulldogs turning things around in 2020. They've made a habit out of finishing the season strong; playing well enough to offer hope that the next year is when it all starts to improve. After winning four of their last five in 2019, the Bulldogs have dropped their first two in 2020. Even before the Model handed them a 7.3% chance of making the Top 8, we can put a line through 2020 as the end of the finals drought.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Despite playing finals football in 2019, the Sharks never looked settled. Shaun Johnson, Matt Moylan, Wade Graham and Andrew Fifita all spent lengthy periods on the sidelines; all three were expected to play key roles in a more successful 2019 season. 

While Graham and Johnson, in particular, are healthy and ready to steer the left and right side attack, the Model isn't seeing the same improvements from last season other clubs are offering. The 0-2 start doesn't help either. While encouraging, the Sharks didn't quite have enough against the Rabbitohs (22-18) and Storm (12-10) - a trend that could well sum up their 2020.

Gold Coast Titans

The Titans have a good one in Justin Holbrook. He's a coach that should be given time to turn the club on its head and steer it in a new direction. Will the front office stick with him after another poor season or two, though? That's what they look to be dealing with.

Awful in Round 1 and even worse in Round 2, the Titans are going to be in the hunt for the wooden spoon once again in 2020. But it's not all bad. Moeaki Fotuaika is an excellent young player to keep an eye on, AJ Brimson is due back in April, and Ash Taylor is still only 25-years old and fighting to get his career back on track.

Nonetheless: “If you expect nothing, you can never be disappointed."

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles are tough to get a read on this season. They surprised to finish 6th in 2019, but the Stats Insider Model is suggesting that rise will plateau in 2020. Making the Top 8 shouldn't be a problem. They have arguably the best starting middle in the competition and a healthy Tom Trbojevic can add some consistency to their attack. 

They aren't catching the opposition out this season, though. The rest of the competition is ready for this grit and grind Sea Eagles outfit. Absolutely capable of winning the premiership, they will need to exceed the Model's expectations and crack the Top 4 (29.8%) to do it.

Melbourne Storm

Lock the Storm into the Top 8.

They've played finals football in each of the last nine seasons and our model has them as morals to push the streak out to ten. When looking at the blueprint the Storm has used to be so successful over the last 17 years, one thing sticks out: Consistency.

"The standard is set on the first day of preseason training and is maintained until the final whistle of that year. Nothing short of 100% effort and accountability will save somebody from a famous Bellamy spray."

Expect much of the same in 2020.

New Zealand Warriors

Unfortunately for the Warriors, goodwill doesn't win footy games. They'd be closer to 20% to win the premiership than 0.2% if it did. The reality for the Warriors is an uphill climb like no other. 

Injuries have decimated Stephen Kearney's middle third which will only make his new approach in attackmore difficult to implement. They're stuck in Australia for the foreseeable future, and outside of the 2018 season, have never had a lot of success winning regularly across the ditch. The best chance the Warriors have of bumping up their 8.8%to make the Top 8 is to throw caution to the wind and make the ball sing.

Newcastle Knights

The talking heads in the game haven't been able to put the Knights into their predicted Top 8 quick enough the last two years. However, playing finals footy never looked realistic in 2018 or 2019. Getting up the field is one of the most important parts to winning consistently; the Knights have finished 16th in running metres for four consecutive seasons.

However, with David Klemmer comfortable in Newcastle, Daniel Saifiti starting to look a little bit like an Origin player, and Herman Ese'ese showing positive signs in Round 1 and 2, expect the Knights to finally lift themselves off the bottom of the running metres list. With the platform set, Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga - under the tutelage of Adam O'Brien - can propel the Knights into the Top 8 for the first time since 2013.

North Queensland Cowboys

Jason Taumalolo can put the model's 53.2% to make the Top 8 on his back and carry the Cowboys through to the finals if he remains healthy all season. An absolute monster in Round 2, the hulking Tongan bulldozed his way though the Dogs on his way to 345 running metres. 

Taumalolo is going to get the Cowboys up the field with help from Josh McGuire, Jordan McLean and a new-look Coen Hess. If Michael Morgan can get his body right and form a partnership with Scott Drinkwater and Valentine Holmes, the Cowboys could be the surprise packet of 2020. 

Parramatta Eels

The Eels finished the 2017 season 4th on the ladder thanks to a very favourable draw. They hype-train started to leave the station, only for the Eels to be left holding the wooden spoon by the end of 2018.

Back up to 5th in 2019, we don't need to worry about another fluctuation like that. This group is better prepared and a lot more well-rounded than the 2017 and 2018 teams that allowed a desperate fan base to flirt with sustained success.

A robust forward pack is out in front of a promising halves pairing and excellent back-three. In their new stadium and likely to play a lot more games at Bankwest than anywhere else in 2020, Eels fans can dare to dream. The model only rates the Storm, Roosters and Raiders ahead of them in the premiership race.

Penrith Panthers

What do we make of Penrith's opening two rounds? Impressive in their win over the Roosters in Round 1, the wheels fell off the Panthers a little bit when put under some pressure by an average Dragons outfit.

Api Koroisau is already a Buy of the Season candidate and Zane Tetevano has added some experience to the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Nathan Cleary looks more comfortable as the undisputed leader in attack.

The model fancies the Panthers to feature in finals football, but a recent history of should'a, would'a, could'a, didn't makes it difficult to get right behind them. 

South Sydney Rabbitohs

We need to see more of the Rabbitohs before jumping to too many conclusions.

Their forward pack is small and we've already seen the best and worst of it in Round 1 and 2. We're yet to see the best of Latrell Mitchell at fullback at all and may not for quite some time if he's forced into the halves to cover for the suspended Cody Walker.

With big names scattered across the park, some of the holes in the squad are just as big. The expectation is that Wayne Bennett extends his streak of making the finals. However, the 5.8% to win the premiership suggests they won't get too deep into what is now October footy.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

This Dragons team is... not good.

A Round 1 win was there for the taking but the Dragons couldn't stop tripping over themselves. In Round 2, a Matt Dufty intercept helped avoid what could have been a blowout. Worse still, the Dragons had a ten-point lead with 11 minutes left on the clock.

Without a lot of reasons for optimism, the model looks as though it's being kind to the Dragons at the moment. The wooden spoon is more likely than a Top 8 berth unless the backline, in particular, is turned on its head.

Sydney Roosters

Nobody needs to stress too much about the 0-2 start to the season. The Roosters have more than enough time to make up the games, and unlike most seasons, won't lose their star players to State of Origin halfway through the season. Unless the Chooks don't pick up a win by Round 5, lock them into a Top 8 spot.

The model's 11.8% to win the premiership despite their 0-2 start highlights just how good this team is and the expectations most have for a quick bounceback.

Introducing a new half in Kyle Flanagan is the only real concern, and while he's not ever going to emulate Cooper Cronk, the continued improvement of Luke Keary closes the gap somewhat. 

The Roosters will be there at the pointy end of the season no matter where they end up on the ladder.

Wests Tigers

Without a finish inside the Top 8 since 2011, no club is suffering from a longer finals drought than the Wests Tigers. The model doesn't see a flood of finals appearances coming in 2020 either. However, that could all change sooner rather than later.

If they're prepared to ride the Leilua rollercoaster, Wests have an attacking duo that can set the right side of the field alight. With Luke Brooks due to return, the left edge will cause trouble too. Pop one of the best prospects we have seen for years in Harry Grant behind the ruck, the Tigers can all of a sudden attack from anywhere. A few questions remain on the defensive end; we saw the worst of the Leilua's in that regard against the Knights.

Expect an improvement and at least a genuine run at the Top-8 this season.

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