We're two rounds into the 2022 NRL season and trying to make sense of what is real and what's not.

Are the close games here to stay?

Can we lock the Knights into the Top 8?

Are the Warriors primed for their first-ever wooden spoon?

Can the Tigers avoid the unwanted culinary tool?

It's easy to get excited about one team and write off another at this time of the year. The St. George Illawarra Dragons and Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles of 2021 are the most recent examples. Still, that won't stop us from wondering what the first two rounds of the season mean moving forward.

Punters- TopSport are offering $10 about the 2022 NRL premiership being won by a Queensland club. 

Unders & Underdogs

The trend of Underdogs and Unders coming in continued again this week as all eight games finished Under the points total. No team scored more than 30 points in Round 2 - the first time all 16 teams have failed to hit the number since Round 1, 2020.

Fewer points meant fewer blowouts as the average winning margin for the season so far came into nine points, down from 16 in 2021. As a result, underdogs have covered in 12 of the 16 games so far compared to only five at this point last season.

The major difference to last season is obvious: the six-again rule reversal. However, it's too early for those in favour of the change to start on their victory lap in celebration of a return to entertaining rugby league. 

It can all change fairly quickly and the NRL lining up big games between the top teams early in the season will have something to do with it. Still, the total winning margin across the competition of 147 points is the fifth-closest in the NRL era down from 248 points at this point last season.

The eye test suggests teams aren't performing so many dark arts in the ruck and the uptick in penalties is proving to be a justified reward for teams working out of their own end. It will still take another six to eight weeks for the numbers to shake out and begin providing us with a clear picture of how the changes have influenced the game, though. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Parramatta Eels are paying $2.8 to finish top four for a 3rd time in 6 seasons. 

Top 8 Knights: 31.8% -> 59.3%

The Newcastle Knights kicked the season off among the mathematical chances at 31.2% to make the Top 8. Uncertainty around their spine and the possible absence of Kalyn Ponga made it difficult to get on board with them as Top 8 certainties.

However, now 2-0 and at 59.3%, the Knights are firmly in the group of Top 8 teams and still have plenty of improvement left in them yet.

The concerns around the spine have all but disappeared. Adam Clune and Jake Clifford have linked up better than anybody anticipated they would before the season started. Clifford, in particular, has been excellent to start the year and picked up six Dally M points in the process. 

Most encouraging, though, is the fact the Knights comfortably beat the Wests Tigers 26-4 without Ponga, David Klemmer and Daniel Saifiti.

The attack sang despite Ponga's absence. Even when he did play last week, it was Clune and Clifford doing most of the damage with the ball.

While the Tigers didn't put up much of a fight, Newcastle finished up with 483 more running metres on Sunday afternoon. Their 1,792.5 average ranks 4th in the NRL.

It's important not to get too far ahead of things with the Knights. They played what has proven to be a grossly out of sorts Roosters team in Round 1 and the favourites for the wooden spoon in Round 2. Impressive throughout the opening fortnight, it's the next fortnight against the Panthers and Sharks that were going to get a real idea of where they stand to start the 2022 NRL season.

Punters- At TopSport, the top of the ladder Newcastle Knights are paying  $2.15 to play finals for a third-straight year. 

Warriors Swapping Finals for a Spoon

It's always a matter of faith when it comes to the New Zealand Warriors.

Rarely is there a year you can't look down the Top 30 before Round 1 and talk yourself into this being a finals side. The talent is always there and 2022 was no different as the Warriors opened the season at 29% to make the Top 8.

Two losses later and the third-hardest draw in the competition to come, the Warriors are now just a 13.3% chance of playing finals football. Notably, they're into the second line for the wooden spoon at 19.8%.

Injuries have played a part in the Kiwi club's struggles. Tohu Harris hasn't been able to get on the field and Shaun Johnson lasted just one game. An already uninspiring backline lost Viliame Vailea and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in the season opener, too. Add the usual Nathan Brown selection head-scratchers and a playing group that spent a whole summer developing cohesion and combinations is looking like they've only just met when game day comes around. 

Only two teams are below the Warriors on the NRL ladder through two rounds: The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles who remain at 66.5% to make the Top 8 opponents, and their Round 3 opponent, Wests Tigers.

Punters- TopSport are offering $4 about a first-ever Warriors wooden spoon. 

Terrible Tigers

"Even after adding some quality talent and showing some promising signs at times throughout 2021, they're the bookies' favourite to finish 16th before Round 1 kicks off." - Betting Ahead: How To Profit From NRL Terribleness

The Wests Tigers are into $2.70 to end up at 16th on the ladder by the end of Round 25 following an awful Round 2 performance against the Knights.

Many of the same issues from 2021 have already presented themselves to start 2022. The lack of effort and intensity in defence is particularly concerning in March. It shouldn't be so difficult to get off your line and dig a little bit deeper this early in the season, but as we saw in Round 2, too many Tigers are already taking shortcuts in defence.

Unlike previous seasons, their time with the ball in hand is just as bad.

Adam Doueihi is a significant out and will instantly improve the attack upon his return. However, he can't generate enough points to overcome the 26 points per game the Tigers are currently conceding - second-most in the NRL.

The club has already been forced to speak publicly on the status of their coach and his position. Michael Maguire has a long season of speculation ahead if the Tigers don't start winning games. He isn't without blame for the Wests Tigers' struggles in recent years, but the ill-discipline and lack of intensity in defence is on the playing group. 

With the Titans, Sharks, Eels and Rabbitohs to come following their Round 3 clash against the Warriors, we're already approaching must-win territory if the Tigers are to avoid the wooden spoon. 

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