NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Finals Week 1, 2023

The best NRL betting tips for the first week of the 2023 NRL finals have been released.

Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every NRL finals game to generate accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NRL bets for punters all over the nation.

The following odds have been sourced from PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.

All of the suggested bets for the first week of the NRL finals come straight from the popular NRL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.

NRL Betting Tips: Finals Week 1, 2023

After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NRL games, our independent computer model has determined the best rugby league bets for Finals Week 1, 2023.

This week's NRL betting tips are led by multiple bets from the Sharks vs Roosters game, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.

Roosters -0.5 vs Sharks ($1.95)

• Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet

• Fair Odds: $1.73

• Edge: 6.6%

• Probability: 57.8%

• Match: Sharks vs Roosters (Saturday, 7:50PM AEST)

Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Sharks and Roosters. We recommend placing a bet on Roosters -0.5, currently offered at odds of $1.95 at PointsBet. We have found a significant edge of 6.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.

MORE: NRL Value Bets Today

Sharks vs Roosters Over 40.5 Points ($1.90)

• Odds: $1.90 via PointsBet

• Fair Odds: $1.75

• Edge: 4.7%

• Probability: 57.3%

• Matchup: Sharks vs Roosters (Saturday, 7:50PM AEST)

Our model has uncovered another standout NRL bet, again in the matchup featuring the Sharks and Roosters. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Over 40.5 Points, available at $1.90 odds through PointsBet. We have found a compelling edge of 4.7% for this particular bet.

Broncos vs Storm Over 42.5 Points ($1.95)

• Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet

• Fair Odds: $1.81

• Edge: 3.9%

• Probability: 55.2%

• Matchup: Broncos vs Storm (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)

Another top tip for this week's league action comes from the game between the Broncos and Storm. The play here is an over/under bet, with Over 42.5 Points at enticing odds of $1.95 through PointsBet. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 3.9% for this particular wager.

NRL Best Bets for Finals Week 1, 2023

• Sharks vs Roosters: Roosters -0.5 ($1.95 at PointsBet, 6.6% edge)

• Sharks vs Roosters: Over 40.5 Points ($1.90 at PointsBet, 4.7% edge)

• Broncos vs Storm: Over 42.5 Points ($1.95 at PointsBet, 3.9% edge)

MORE: Every NRL Finals Game Simulated 10,000 Times

NRL Finals Week 1 Games to Bet on This Week

• Storm vs Broncos (Friday, 7:50PM)

• Warriors vs Panthers (Saturday, 4:05PM)

• Roosters vs Sharks (Saturday, 7:50PM)

• Raiders vs Knights (Sunday, 4:05PM)

All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

What Are Fair Odds in Betting?

Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.

For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.

Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.

Make Smarter NRL Betting Decisions

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If you decide to use our NRL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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