NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Preliminary Finals, 2023
Sep 21, 2023, 7:58AM
The best NRL betting tips for preliminary final weekend of the 2023 NRL season have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has conducted 10,000 simulations of every NRL preliminary finals game to generate reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NRL bets for punters across the country.
The following odds were found at PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.
Each one of the suggested bets for preliminary final weekend of the NRL season come straight from the renowned NRL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
NRL Betting Tips: Preliminary Finals, 2023
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NRL games, our famous computer model has determined the best rugby league bets for Preliminary Finals, 2023.
This week's NRL betting tips feature multiple bets from the Panthers vs Storm game, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Storm +13.5 vs Panthers ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 58.3%
- Match: Panthers vs Storm (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Panthers and Storm. We recommend placing a bet on Storm +13.5, currently offered at odds of $1.90 at PointsBet. We have found a significant edge of 5.7% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.
MORE: NRL Value Bets Today
Storm H2H vs Panthers ($5.00)
- Odds: $5.00 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $4.13
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 24.2%
- Matchup: Panthers vs Storm (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout NRL bet, again in the matchup featuring the Panthers and Storm. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Storm to win, available at $5.00 odds through PointsBet. We have detected a compelling edge of 4.2% for this particular bet.
Broncos vs Warriors Over 42.5 Points ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via <a href="https://stts.in/pointsbet-bets/" target="_blank">PointsBet</a>
- Fair Odds: $1.82
- Edge: 3.8%
- Probability: 55%
- Matchup: Broncos vs Warriors (Saturday, 7:50PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's league action comes from the game between the Broncos and Warriors. The play here is an over/under bet, with Over 42.5 Points at enticing odds of $1.95 through PointsBet. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 3.8% for this particular wager.
Warriors H2H vs Broncos ($3.95)
- Odds: $3.95 via <a href="https://stts.in/pointsbet-bets/" target="_blank">PointsBet</a>
- Fair Odds: $3.55
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 28.2%
- Match: Broncos vs Warriors (Saturday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our next best bet for Round 30 of the NRL season stems from the game between the Broncos and Warriors. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Warriors to win, currently available at $3.95 odds through PointsBet. Our model has detected a noteworthy 2.9% edge for this particular bet.
Panthers vs Storm Over 38.5 Points ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.80
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 55.5%
- Matchup: Panthers vs. Storm (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Panthers vs. Storm matchup. Our model has its eyes on Over 38.5 Points, coming in at $1.90 odds. When comparing the best available over/under odds at PointsBet to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 2.9% edge here.
NRL Best Bets for 2023 Preliminary Finals
- Panthers vs Storm: Storm +13.5 ($1.90 at PointsBet, 5.7% edge)
- Panthers vs Storm: Storm to win ($5.00 at PointsBet, 4.2% edge)
- Broncos vs Warriors: Over 42.5 Points ($1.95 at PointsBet, 3.8% edge)
- Broncos vs Warriors: Warriors to win ($3.95 at PointsBet, 2.9% edge)
- Panthers vs Storm: Over 38.5 Points ($1.90 at PointsBet, 2.9% edge)
MORE: Every NRL Finals Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NRL Preliminary Finals Games to Bet on This Week
- Storm vs Panthers (Friday, 7:50PM)
- Warriors vs Broncos (Saturday, 7:50PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed NRL Betting Decisions
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