NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 11, 2024
May 16, 2024, 2:31AM
The best NRL betting tips for Round 11 of the 2024 NRL season have been released.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate every NRL Round 11 game 10,000 times and find the best NRL bets for punters across the nation.
The following odds have been sourced from PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.
Each one of the recommended bets for Round 11 of the NRL season come straight from the renowned NRL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 11, 2024
NRL Betting Tips: Round 11, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's NRL games, our leading computer model has determined the best rugby league bets for you in Round 11, 2024.
After simulating all of the NRL Round 11 action, our model has found the best bet to make right now, which comes in the Sharks vs Roosters matchup. Scroll down to see the bet, ensuring you can get in on the action before any change to the line or the odds.
Sharks vs Roosters Over 42.5 Points ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 6.8%
- Probability: 58%
- Match: Sharks vs Roosters (Saturday, 5:30PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Sharks and Roosters. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 42.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.95 at TAB. We have detected a significant edge of 6.8% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.
MORE: NRL Value Bets Today
NRL Best Bets for Round 11, 2024
- Sharks vs Roosters: Over 42.5 Points ($1.95 at TAB, 6.8% edge)
MORE: Every NRL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NRL Round 11 Games to Bet on This Week
- Bulldogs vs Raiders (Friday, 6:00PM)
- Broncos vs Sea Eagles (Friday, 8:05PM)
- Knights vs Titans (Saturday, 3:00PM)
- Roosters vs Sharks (Saturday, 5:30PM)
- Cowboys vs Rabbitohs (Saturday, 7:45PM)
- Panthers vs Warriors (Sunday, 1:50PM)
- Eels vs Storm (Sunday, 4:05PM)
- Dolphins vs Tigers (Sunday, 6:25PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter NRL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our NRL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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