NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 18, 2024
Jul 4, 2024, 7:22AM
The best NRL betting tips for Round 18 of the 2024 NRL season have been revealed.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each NRL Round 18 match to produce reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NRL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds are brought to you by PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.
Each one of the suggested bets for Round 18 of the NRL season come straight from the popular NRL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 18, 2024
NRL Betting Tips: Round 18, 2024
After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's NRL games, our leading computer model has determined the best rugby league bets for you in Round 18, 2024.
After simulating all of the NRL Round 18 action, our model has found the best bet to make right now, which comes in the Broncos vs Panthers matchup. Scroll down to see the bet, ensuring you can get in on the action before any change to the line or the odds.
Panthers -4.5 vs Broncos ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.67
- Edge: 8.7%
- Probability: 60%
- Match: Broncos vs Panthers (Friday, 8:00PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Broncos and Panthers. We recommend placing a bet on Panthers -4.5, currently offered at odds of $1.95 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 8.7% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.
NRL Best Bets for Round 18, 2024
- Broncos vs Panthers: Panthers -4.5 ($1.95 at TAB, 8.7% edge)
MORE: Every NRL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NRL Round 18 Games to Bet on This Week
- Rabbitohs vs Eels (Thursday, 7:50PM)
- Titans vs Sharks (Friday, 6:00PM)
- Panthers vs Broncos (Friday, 8:00PM)
- Warriors vs Bulldogs (Saturday, 3:00PM)
- Storm vs Tigers (Saturday, 5:30PM)
- Sea Eagles vs Cowboys (Saturday, 7:35PM)
- Dragons vs Roosters (Sunday, 2:00PM)
- Knights vs Raiders (Sunday, 4:05PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed NRL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our NRL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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