NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 25, 2023
Last updated: Aug 20, 2023, 10:30AM | Published: Aug 16, 2023, 2:02PM
The best NRL betting tips for Round 25 of the 2023 NRL season have been revealed.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate each NRL Round 25 match 10,000 times and find the best NRL bets for punters across the country.
The following odds are brought to you by PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.
Each one of our suggested bets for Round 25 of the NRL season come directly from the renowned NRL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 25, 2023
NRL Betting Tips: Round 25, 2023
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NRL matches, our independent computer model has found the best rugby league bets for Round 25, 2023.
This week's NRL betting tips are led by Titans vs Panthers and Dragons vs Storm, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.
Titans vs Panthers Over 44.5 Points ($2.00)
- Odds: $2.00 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 8.1%
- Probability: 58.1%
- Match: Titans vs Panthers (Saturday, 5:30PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Titans and Panthers. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 44.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $2.00 at PointsBet. We have detected a significant edge of 8.1% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.
MORE: NRL Best Bets This Weekend
Dragons H2H vs Storm ($5.50)
- Odds: $5.50 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $3.94
- Edge: 7.2%
- Probability: 25.4%
- Matchup: Dragons vs Storm (Saturday, 7:35PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout NRL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Dragons and Storm. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Dragons to win, available at $5.50 odds through PointsBet. We have found a compelling edge of 7.2% for this particular bet.
Dragons +15.5 vs Storm ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.68
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 59.4%
- Matchup: Dragons vs Storm (Saturday, 7:35PM AEST)
Another top pick for this week's league action comes from the game between the Dragons and Storm. The play here is a line bet, with Dragons +15.5 at enticing odds of $1.90 through PointsBet. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 6.7% for this particular wager.
Sea Eagles H2H vs Warriors ($4.20)
- Odds: $4.20 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $3.58
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 27.9%
- Match: Warriors vs Sea Eagles (Friday, 6:00PM AEST)
Our next betting tip for Round 25 of the NRL season stems from the game between the Warriors and Sea Eagles. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Sea Eagles to win, currently available at $4.20 odds through PointsBet. Our model has detected a noteworthy 4.1% edge for this particular bet.
Titans +21.5 vs Panthers ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.86
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 53.8%
- Matchup: Titans vs. Panthers (Saturday, 5:30PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Titans vs. Panthers game. Our model has its eyes on Titans +21.5, coming in at $1.95 odds. When comparing the best available line odds at PointsBetto our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 2.6% edge here.
NRL Best Bets for Round 25, 2023
- Titans vs Panthers: Over 44.5 Points ($2.00 at PointsBet, 8.1% edge)
- Dragons vs Storm: Dragons to win ($5.50 at PointsBet, 7.2% edge)
- Dragons vs Storm: Dragons +15.5 ($1.90 at PointsBet, 6.7% edge)
- Warriors vs Sea Eagles: Sea Eagles to win ($4.20 at PointsBet, 4.1% edge)
- Titans vs Panthers: Titans +21.5 ($1.95 at PointsBet, 2.6% edge)
MORE: Every NRL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NRL Round 25 Games to Bet on This Week
- Sharks vs Cowboys (Thursday, 7:50PM)
- Sea Eagles vs Warriors (Friday, 6:00PM)
- Roosters vs Eels (Friday, 8:00PM)
- Dolphins vs Tigers (Saturday, 3:00PM)
- Panthers vs Titans (Saturday, 5:30PM)
- Storm vs Dragons (Saturday, 7:35PM)
- Rabbitohs vs Knights (Sunday, 2:00PM)
- Bulldogs vs Raiders (Sunday, 4:05PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our NRL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.
