NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 26, 2023
Last updated: Aug 24, 2023, 8:03AM | Published: Aug 23, 2023, 2:04PM
The best NRL betting tips for Round 26 of the 2023 NRL season have been revealed.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every NRL Round 26 game to generate reliable probabilities. These probabilities are then compared to the odds to find the best NRL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds were found at PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.
All of the recommended bets for Round 26 of the NRL season come directly from the popular NRL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 26, 2023
NRL Betting Tips: Round 26, 2023
After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's NRL matches, our independent computer model has determined the best rugby league bets for Round 26, 2023.
This week's NRL betting tips are led by Panthers vs Eels and Raiders vs Broncos, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Eels +19.5 vs Panthers ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.64
- Edge: 9.8%
- Probability: 61%
- Match: Panthers vs Eels (Thursday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Panthers and Eels. We recommend placing a bet on Eels +19.5, currently offered at odds of $1.95 at PointsBet. We have found a significant edge of 9.8% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.
MORE: NRL Value Bets Today
Raiders +10.5 vs Broncos ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.66
- Edge: 7.6%
- Probability: 60.3%
- Matchup: Raiders vs Broncos (Saturday, 7:35PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout NRL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Raiders and Broncos. We recommend considering a wager on Raiders +10.5, available at $1.90 odds through PointsBet. We have found a compelling edge of 7.6% for this particular bet.
Eels H2H vs Panthers ($8.00)
- Odds: $8.00 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $5.08
- Edge: 7.2%
- Probability: 19.7%
- Matchup: Panthers vs Eels (Thursday, 7:50PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's league action comes from the game between the Panthers and Eels. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Eels to win at enticing odds of $8.00 through PointsBet.
Although our model is projecting the Panthers as more likely to win this game, we have found an edge of 7.2% on the underdogs with the fair odds of $5.08 making this a suggested play.
Dragons H2H vs Warriors ($5.50)
- Odds: $5.50 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $4.31
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 23.2%
- Matchup: Warriors vs. Dragons (Friday, 6:00PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Warriors vs. Dragons game. Our model has its eyes on Dragons to win, coming in at $5.50 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at PointsBet to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 5.0% edge here.
NRL Best Bets for Round 26, 2023
- Panthers vs Eels: Eels +19.5 ($1.95 at PointsBet, 9.8% edge)
- Raiders vs Broncos: Raiders +10.5 ($1.90 at PointsBet, 7.6% edge)
- Panthers vs Eels: Eels to win ($8.00 at PointsBet, 7.2% edge)
- Warriors vs Dragons: Dragons to win ($5.50 at PointsBet, 5.0% edge)
MORE: Every NRL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NRL Round 26 Games to Bet on This Week
- Eels vs Panthers (Thursday, 7:50PM)
- Dragons vs Warriors (Friday, 6:00PM)
- Cowboys vs Dolphins (Friday, 8:00PM)
- Titans vs Storm (Saturday, 3:00PM)
- Tigers vs Roosters (Saturday, 5:30PM)
- Broncos vs Raiders (Saturday, 7:35PM)
- Sharks vs Knights (Sunday, 4:05PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter NRL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our NRL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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