NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 27, 2023
Last updated: Sep 3, 2023, 9:40PM | Published: Aug 30, 2023, 2:02PM
The best NRL betting tips for Round 27 of the 2023 NRL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every NRL Round 27 match to produce reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NRL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds have been sourced from PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.
All of our suggested bets for Round 27 of the NRL season come directly from the popular NRL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 27, 2023
NRL Betting Tips: Round 27, 2023
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's NRL games, our independent computer model has found the best rugby league bets for you in Round 27, 2023.
This week's NRL betting tips are led by Dragons vs Knights and Sharks vs Raiders, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Dragons vs Knights Over 46.5 Points ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 7.0%
- Probability: 58.3%
- Match: Dragons vs Knights (Saturday, 7:35PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Dragons and Knights. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 46.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.95 at PointsBet. We have detected a significant edge of 7.0% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.
MORE: NRL Value Bets Today
Raiders +9.5 vs Sharks ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.75
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 57.1%
- Matchup: Sharks vs Raiders (Sunday, 4:05PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout NRL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Sharks and Raiders. We recommend considering a wager on Raiders +9.5, available at $1.95 odds through PointsBet. We have found a compelling edge of 5.8% for this particular bet.
Storm +3.5 vs Broncos ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.78
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Matchup: Broncos vs Storm (Thursday, 7:50PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's league action comes from the matchup between the Broncos and Storm. The play here is a line bet, with Storm +3.5 at enticing odds of $1.95 through PointsBet. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 4.9% for this particular wager.
Bulldogs H2H vs Titans ($3.80)
- Odds: $3.80 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $3.31
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 30.2%
- Match: Titans vs Bulldogs (Sunday, 2:00PM AEST)
Our next betting tip for Round 27 of the NRL season stems from the game between the Titans and Bulldogs. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Western Bulldogs to win, currently available at $3.80 odds through PointsBet. Our model has found a noteworthy 3.9% edge for this particular bet.
Cowboys +9.5 vs Panthers ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via PointsBet
- Fair Odds: $1.78
- Edge: 3.5%
- Probability: 56.1%
- Matchup: Panthers vs. Cowboys (Saturday, 5:30PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Panthers vs. Cowboys game. Our model has its eyes on Cowboys +9.5, coming in at $1.90 odds. When comparing the best available line odds at PointsBet to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 3.5% edge here.
NRL Best Bets for Round 27, 2023
- Dragons vs Knights: Over 46.5 Points ($1.95 at PointsBet, 7.0% edge)
- Sharks vs Raiders: Raiders +9.5 ($1.95 at PointsBet, 5.8% edge)
- Broncos vs Storm: Storm +3.5 ($1.95 at PointsBet, 4.9% edge)
- Titans vs Bulldogs: Bulldogs to win ($3.80 at PointsBet, 3.9% edge)
- Panthers vs Cowboys: Cowboys +9.5 ($1.90 at PointsBet, 3.5% edge)
MORE: Every NRL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NRL Round 27 Games to Bet on This Week
- Storm vs Broncos (Thursday, 7:50PM)
- Tigers vs Sea Eagles (Friday, 6:00PM)
- Cowboys vs Panthers (Saturday, 5:30PM)
- Knights vs Dragons (Saturday, 7:35PM)
- Bulldogs vs Titans (Sunday, 2:00PM)
- Raiders vs Sharks (Sunday, 4:05PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter Sports Betting Decisions
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