NRL Betting Tips and Odds for Semi-Finals, 2023

The best NRL betting tips for semi-final weekend of the 2023 NRL season have been released.

Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our powerful computer model to simulate every NRL semi-finals game 10,000 times and find the best NRL bets for punters all over the country.

The odds below were found at PointsBet, which offers more betting markets on the NRL than any other bookmaker in the world.

Each one of the suggested bets for semi-final weekend of the NRL season come directly from the popular NRL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.

NRL Betting Tips: Semi-Finals, 2023

After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's NRL matches, our famous computer model has found the best rugby league bets for you in Semi-Finals, 2023.

Notably, this week's NRL betting tips both come from the same matchup, with multiple bets from the Storm vs Roosters game, with our advanced predictive analytics model tirelessly aiming to dig out edges across various bet types from each game this weekend.

Storm vs Roosters Over 40.5 Points ($2.00)

• Odds: $2.00 via PointsBet
• Fair Odds: $1.85
• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Match: Storm vs Roosters (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)

Our model has pinpointed the best NRL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Storm and Roosters. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 40.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $2.00 at PointsBet. We have found a significant edge of 4.2% for this particular wager, which makes it our NRL bet of the round.

MORE: NRL Value Bets Today

Roosters H2H vs Storm ($3.00)

• Odds: $3.00 via PointsBet
• Fair Odds: $2.82
• Edge: 2.1%
• Probability: 35.5%
• Matchup: Storm vs Roosters (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)

Our model has uncovered another standout NRL bet, again in the game featuring the Storm and Roosters. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Roosters to win, available at $3.00 odds through PointsBet. We have detected a compelling edge of 2.1% for this particular bet.

NRL Best Bets for 2023 Semi-Finals

• Storm vs Roosters: Over 40.5 Points ($2.00 at PointsBet, 4.2% edge)
• Storm vs Roosters: Roosters to win ($3.00 at PointsBet, 2.1% edge)

MORE: Every NRL Finals Game Simulated 10,000 Times

NRL Semi-Finals Games to Bet on This Week

• Roosters vs Storm (Friday, 7:50PM)
• Knights vs Warriors (Saturday, 4:05PM)

All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

What Are Fair Odds in Betting?

Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.

For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.

Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.

Make Smarter Sports Betting Decisions

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If you decide to use our NRL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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