NRL Clive Churchill Medal Tips - Who Will Win the Clive Churchill 2022?
Last updated: Sep 30, 2022, 3:36AM | Published: Sep 30, 2022, 3:30AM
The player adjudged man of the match in the 2022 NRL Grand Final between the Panthers and Eels will be the 2022 Clive Churchill Medal winner, for which Stats Insider has used data and machine learning to find the most likely winner.
Our Clive Churchill tips are based on simulating Panthers vs Eels 10,000 times to determine how likely each player is to lead the Clive Churchill voting in 2022, with the most likely players featured below.
| Player | Clive Churchill Medal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nathan Cleary (Panthers) | 22.1% |
| Dylan Edwards (Panthers) | 6.8% |
| Mitchell Moses (Eels) | 6.6% |
The full list of 2022 Clive Churchill Medal probabilities is available at the bottom of this page.
This year's Clive Churchill medal odds are brought to you by BlueBet.
Who Will Win the Clive Churchill Medal 2022?
This year's NRL Grand Final is set to feature a host of big-name players, including Dylan Edwards, Clinton Gutherson and Jarome Luai, but who are the best bets to win the Clive Churchill Medal? Let's find out.
Nathan Cleary (Panthers)
The 2021 Clive Churchill medallist is the favourite to win it again this year, with Nathan Cleary of the Panthers projected as a 22.1% chance according to our model.
After going 3/3 on goal attempts in last year's Grand Final victory for Penrith, Cleary enters the 2022 Grand Final having contributed 27 points in his past two matches and should feature heavily again here.
If you're looking to take Cleary to add another Clive Churchill to his impressive resume, BlueBet has odds of $2.90. Our fair odds are $4.50.
Mitchell Moses (Eels)
After beating the Panthers twice this season, the Eels will be confident of doing so again, which if it happens, will likely be thanks to a big performance from Mitchell Moses.
Moses has been huge in Parramatta's two wins in the finals so far, contributing a total of 24 points across both games.
BlueBet is offering odds of $9.00 for Moses to win the award in 2022, with our fair odds for his 6.6% probability at $15.10.
Brian To'o (Panthers)
After getting past the most likely winners of the 2022 Clive Churchill Medal, the best value play to make is on Panthers winger Brian To'o.
To'o has scored five tries in his last three games and, if deployed on the left again, will get plenty of opportunities to add to that number against the Eels.
If you think To'o can beat out Cleary for man-of-the-match honours, BlueBet's odds of $41 present value against our fair odds of $26.50.
Isaiah Papali'i (Eels)
Another value play that is worth a look this week is for the Eels' Isaiah Papali'i to win the Clive Churchill Medal in 2022.
Second-rowers are no strangers to the award, with four winners since 1984, and if Papali'i can produce his third two-try effort of the season this week, that number could very well become five.
This probability equates to fair odds of $34.50, with BlueBet offering some slight value at $41.
Clive Churchill Medal 2022 Probabilities
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nathan Cleary (Panthers) | 22.1% |
| Dylan Edwards (Panthers) | 6.8% |
| Mitchell Moses (Eels) | 6.6% |
| Isaah Yeo (Panthers) | 6.0% |
| Clinton Gutherson (Eels) | 5.9% |
| Apisai Koroisau (Panthers) | 5.7% |
| Jarome Luai (Panthers) | 5.0% |
| Dylan Brown (Eels) | 4.4% |
| Brian To'o (Panthers) | 3.8% |
| James Fisher-Harris (Panthers) | 3.7% |
| Viliame Kikau (Panthers) | 3.7% |
| Shaun Lane (Eels) | 3.3% |
| Isaiah Papali'i (Eels) | 2.9% |
| Stephen Crichton (Panthers) | 2.8% |
| Reed Mahoney (Eels) | 2.0% |
| Ryan Matterson (Eels) | 1.9% |
| Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Eels) | 1.8% |
| Liam Martin (Panthers) | 1.8% |
| Junior Paulo (Eels) | 1.7% |
| Izack Tago (Panthers) | 1.7% |
| Maika Sivo (Eels) | 1.3% |
| Moses Leota (Panthers) | 1.0% |
Clive Churchill Medallists
- Clive Churchill Medal 2021: Nathan Cleary (Panthers)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2020: Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2019: Jack Wighton (Raiders)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2018: Luke Keary (Roosters)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2017: Billy Slater (Storm)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2016: Luke Lewis (Sharks)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2015: Johnathan Thurston (Cowboys)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2014: Sam Burgess (Rabbitohs)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2013: Cooper Cronk (Storm)
- Clive Churchill Medal 2012: Glenn Stewart (Sea Eagles)
