NRL 'FINAL FOUR': Predictions, Trends & Insights

The race to the 2019 NRL Premiership is down to four teams and we've got a massive weekend ahead to decide who meets in the Grand Final. 

While the Roosters are significant favourites to win two more games this season, there is nothing separating the Raiders and Storm, and the Rabbitohs can't be rubbed out just yet. 

The top four teams on the ladder after 25 rounds remain, but only two will avoid premature Mad Mondy celebrations next week.

CANBERRA RAIDERS

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 23.4%

As if the Raiders didn't enjoy their week off enough, they'd have watched the Rabbitohs beat the Sea Eagles on Friday night licking their lips.

Elliot Whitehead and John Bateman, in particular.

The Rabbitohs edges couldn't handle what the Sea Eagles threw at them for most of the match. Adam Reynolds' turnstile defence will have Whitehead desperate to get out there and target the diminutive half.

Sam Burgess offered some resistance and tackled hard, but his lack of sideways movement was exposed by the fast feet of Dylan Walker who was able to sit the big Englishman in his seat if his line speed lagged.

There is little question the Raiders will adopt a similar approach on Friday night. Jack Wighton is an excellent running five-eighth and will demand the attention of the defence if he plays at the line. Bigger than most five-eighths, he can't be allowed to run at will and attract one-on-one tackles. Holes will open up if he isn't closed down, and Whitehead will be there to run through them.

On the other side of the field, Bateman will have an eye on Dane Gagai all night. The South Sydney centre will still be having nightmares about Moses Suli in the build-up to this one. While Bateman doesn't carry the same physical presence in his stature to Suli, he can be equally dangerous with the ball in his hands.

With Josh Hodgson likely to replicate a similar role to Damien Cook in the middle of the field, this English trio will have plenty to say on Friday night.

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SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 9.5%

We asked the Rabbitohs to do it through the middle against the Sea Eagles last week, and they did just that.

Liam Knight led the way with 169 running metres on 17 carries. Backed up by 166 metres from Cameron Murray, 156 metres by Tom Burgess and 144 metres by Tevita Tatola off the bench, the Bunnies worked their way up the field often enough to find points. They finished with 1,616 running metres to Manly's 1,518 metres.

The go-forward allowed Damien Cook to get his hands on the ball 126 times. He had only reached that number once since Round 11, which, as we will remember, is when the wheels started to fall off the Rabbitohs ride to premiership glory.

Souths will need much of the same against the Raiders on Friday night.

They're entering hostile territory and will more than likely need to enter an early grind to get themselves into the match. Sam Burgess needs to have a big say with the ball in his hands. He only managed 105 running metres last week, but much of that may have been down to the 33 tackles he made. Burgess has only hit that number one other time all season.

We know about the correlation between running metres and premiership winners. The Rabbitohs once led the competition in running metres per game. They can do it again over the next fortnight. If this massive middle can get up the field and give what has been an inconsistent attack enough chances at the line, anything is possible between now and next Sunday.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 45.1%

Like the Raiders, the Roosters will have spent the week resting up and preparing for their showdown with the Storm on Saturday night. However, unlike the Raiders, the Roosters haven't been presented with the same holes in the defence.

The Storm kept the Eels - who managed 58 points a week earlier - scoreless in Week 2 of the finals. They dominated the match from start to finish and recaptured the sort of form that has had them pegged as premiership contenders all year.

This one is set to be a ripper on Saturday night.

While no team has a higher ceiling than the Roosters, you can never rule the Storm out of ripping the top off and causing a massive upset. It's going to take the Roosters at their best to advance to the Grand Final.

Although, they can't be at their very best with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves sat on the sideline. The giant Kiwi enforcer is a significant loss for the Roosters. While he might not be the official leader of the pack to some, his actions speak louder than any other, and he's capable of turning an average set into a good one with one strong run in attack or powerful shot in defence.

Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Roosters have won 74% of their matches with Waerea-Hargreaves in the side. Of the ten he's missed in that time, they won just four.

All of the talk in the build-up to Saturday will surround the attacking prowess of both the left and right edges - we've already done it here - but the loss of Waerea-Hargreaves can't be understated.

His head-to-head contest against Nelson Asofa-Solomona is one we're all going to miss.

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MELBOURNE STORM

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 22.0%

The Storm looked pretty, pretty, pretty good on Saturday night.

Eager to put to bed any doubts of this side being regular-season wonders, the Storm ran out onto AAMI Park and wiped the floor with the Eels.

The 32-0 scoreline is only the start.

The Storm's 80% completion rate was more than enough to cover the Eels' abysmal 50%. With the 57% possession, the Storm ran for 1,523 metres and broke the line six times to pile up points early before cruising to the end.

Asofa-Solomona led the way with 164 metres while his partner in the middle, Jesse Bromwich, added 128 metres. With Waerea-Hargreaves out for the Roosters this week, it's advantage Storm in the starting props department.

Most importantly, the Storm spine had plenty to say against the Eels after a few questions had been raised of their ability to gel in time to compete in this finals series.


Tries
Try Assists
Line Breaks
Line Break Assists
R. Papenhuyzen
1
0
2
1
C. Munster
1
1
0
1
J. Hughes
1
1
0
1
C. Smith
0
1
0
1

The Storm are heavy underdogs heading into the Sydney Cricket Ground, but they're expertly coached, in encouraging form, and are no strangers to big games. We saw enough against the Eels to be confident in the Roosters being made to work hard this week if not suffer a shock defeat.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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