A couple of upsets in Week 1 of the NRL finals have thrown almost every previous prediction out the window. What looked like an inevitable rematch of the 2018 Grand Final is no longer possible with the now soft side of the draw opening up an opportunity for a new face in the season finale.

The Broncos and Sharks are done for the year. You could argue they were done after Round 25 with what the pair dished up over the weekend.

While the Roosters and Raiders rest up and relax on their well-earned week off, the Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles, Storm and Eels will battle it out and try to extend their season by at least another week.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 7.6%

The Rabbitohs were on the wrong end of a Roosters special in Week 1 of the finals. Trent Robinson and his men put their foot down and ran right through the Rabbitohs.

Souths managed just 1,402 running metres on the night after averaging 1,588 metres per game throughout the season. The larger issue is the shrinking average that has come down from an NRL-high 1,612 metres per game after Round 15.

At that time, there was optimism around South Sydney's premiership hopes considering four of the previous five premiers had finished in the top two in the competition for running metres. Now, however, they look more likely to leave the finals in straight sets.

There is hope, though.

All three Burgess brothers will be out there for their do or die match against the Sea Eagles on Friday night. Sam and George's suspensions along with Tom's injury have had a significant impact on their once competition-high yardage. They average 327.3 metres per game between them. If the trio can get downhill and do what they do best, we may be able to recreate the optimism given the Rabbitohs are on the softer side of the draw heading towards the Grand Final.

<ad>

Manly Sea Eagles 

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 3.4%

The great coaches talk to their teams about controlling what they can and reacting well to what they can't.

Dealing with injuries and suspension to go into Week 1 of the finals as heavy underdogs, the Sea Eagles did precisely that. Teams can control the errors and penalties they give away, and to a lesser degree, the missed and ineffective tackles they concede.

It's no coincidence that the Sea Eagles put up promising numbers in all four of those categories to complete the upset victory.

They'll need to do the same this week if they're to beat the odds again. The Stats Insider Model is struggling to get behind the Sea Eagles with just 32% of the 10,000 simulations ending with them on top.

Melbourne Storm

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 21.9%

The Storm played with the best attack in the NRL in the regular season averaging 26.2 points per game. However, they've been leapt by the Roosters after scoring just 10 points in Week 1 of the finals with questions now being asked of their new-look spine.

Craig Bellamy was late to make the change. Brodie Croft played 21 games before being looked over with Bellamy preferring to move Jahrome Hughes into the halves and Ryan Papenhuyzen to fullback.

On paper, it's a more exciting spine with a higher ceiling. They're not close to reaching it yet, though.

The Storm did manage to put 36 points on the Sea Eagles with this spine, but that was largely due to a Cameron Smith clinic. To only put 24 points on the Titans and 10 on the Raiders last week is a genuine cause for concern.

The Roosters now own the best attack in the NRL and will only get better. Meanwhile, the Eels come into this week on the back of a 58-point outburst in Week 1 of the finals. If the Storm can't find their grove and start to justify this risky late-season switch by getting close to their 25.6 points per game average, Mad Monday celebrations look set to come a week earlier than most expected - if not two.

Parramatta Eels

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 4.7%

Which number do we start with from Week 1 of the finals?

What the Eels produced last week is beyond belief. Nobody saw it coming. Unfortunately for the blue and gold army, they shouldn't expect anything close to the same this week.

Sunday's performance is an outlier in almost every way from the record-breaking margin to the significant gaps between the two sides in most statistical categories. The Eels are better to wipe it from their minds and approach this week with a different focus: Defence.

Parramatta is the worst defensive team left in the NRL conceding 18.9 points per game. It's good for 6th overall, but a number they'll need to improve on if they're to get any closer to lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy.

From 'Defence determining NRL Premiership favourites ' earlier in the season: 

"The average defensive rank that the eventual NRL Premiers carry into the finals at the end of the regular season is 2.7 . Only one of the last 13 NRL premiers have played with a defence outside the top three in the competition; the 2015 Cowboys (5th)  who beat the third-ranked team in a golden point Grand Final."

The 58 points were great on Sunday afternoon, but they won't be able to replicate that sort of attack against this Melbourne defence. Parramatta's level of success this week and beyond will come down to how they defend themselves.

Sydney Roosters

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 41.8%

Somehow, this team that has been one of the premiership favourites for 12 months is still getting better.

Their left-side attack that accounts for 49% of their tries remains the best in the NRL. Latrell Mitchell has been quiet and Daniel Tupou has slowed down since scoring in five consecutive weeks. But, as we've seen over the last fortnight, Sydney's right-side attack can more than make up the difference.

Joseph Manu has been on fire leaving the Rabbitohs' left-edge defence with third-degree burns in back-to-back weeks. Luke Keary popped up on that side to play a small hand in one of the most well-worked tries of the season last week too.

At close to full-strength with Jake Friend still to be added if he's fit next week, the Roosters are now in possession of the best attack in the NRL scoring 26.3 points per game.

It's tough to imagine anybody keeping up with them from here.

Canberra Raiders

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 20.6%

Plenty thought the Raiders could beat the Storm in Melbourne last week, but not many thought they would.

In the end, their defence that has been a talking point all season got the job done and earned the Raiders a home final in Week 3.

Ending 2018 with one of the worst defences in the NRL conceding 22.5 points per game, nobody saw this side getting through to Week 3 allowing just 15.4 points through them each week.

They still concede the third-most penalties in the NRL and make roughly the same number of errors at 9.6 per game as they did in 2018. The difference is Canberra's ability to defend those errors and penalties.

Canberra coughed up possession eight times in Melbourne last week and lost the penalty count 12-8. Most sides don't beat the Storm when handing over possession that often while also giving them regular piggybacks up the field.

The Raiders are still on the third line of the Model's premiership percentages, but they've got a nice run to the Grand Final. Defence wins premierships. If the Raiders win on the first weekend of October, it will be a result of this incredible improvement on the defensive side of the ball.