Week 2 of the NRL Finals is just around the corner with the Sydney Roosters taking on the Canberra Raiders at the SCG on Friday night before the Parramatta Eels host the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Bankwest Stadium on Saturday.

With 21 games to dig through to prepare for these do-or-die encounters, we're going to take a look at where the four teams competing this week have scored and conceded tries this season.

The Stats Insider Model has predicted both games to finish within a converted try. One piece of individual brilliance in attack or a lapse in concentration in defence could decide which two teams advance to the preliminary finals.

Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders

The variation at which the Sydney Roosters attack a defence has seen them score across the park all season. Whether it be Luke Keary dominating on a short side raid, a sweeping right-side shift with James Tedesco chiming in out the back, or the big fellas rolling up through the middle and handing off to support players, the Roosters can pick apart any defence put in front of them. 

Forced to play in Week 2 of the finals following their 29-28 loss to the Penrith Panthers last week, the critics are all over the Roosters. Many have been all season. Still, in what most consider to be a down year regardless of their opinion on Sydney's premiership chances, they lead the NRL in points scored at 27.6 points per game. While ultimately falling short of victory, the Roosters still hung 28 points on a Panthers side conceding just 12.7 points per game this season.

Potent down both sides while only four teams have scored more tries through the middle than their 18 in 2020, the Roosters have scored 40 tries down the left side and 41 down the right.

One try, in particular, shows just how dangerous they are when at their best. The focus on always being in shape and ready to pounce created this try against the Bulldogs in Round 5:

The Roosters set up on the left side in preparation for a right shift but Lachlan Lewis does an excellent job of reading the play and shutting down Kyle Flanagan. But as Keary sweeps around the ruck and into first receiver, the Roosters attack is already back in shape. The Bulldogs defence, however, hasn't been able to recover.  The key is Angus Crichton. He doesn't stop moving as he reacts to the Lewis tackle and gets to the outside of James Tedesco who attracts the defence and sends him over untouched.

The Bulldogs blocked the jab, but couldn't stave off the sweeping right hook. 

That's the Roosters at their best.

The Raiders have a justifiable left-edge focus to their attack.

Jack Wighton is one of the best ball-runners in the NRL at the moment, and despite being the focus of every defence the Raiders come up against, he still finds ways to score. He's managed four doubles in just his last six games for the Raiders to pile up 37 tries down the left edge overall this season.

However, it's through the middle that the Raiders have had remarkable success. They lead the way in centre-field meat pies with 25 this season.

Josh Papalii has four tries in 2020, Joseph Tapine scored his fourth last week while Tom Starling has three and Dunamis Lui two. It's George Williams that offers the greatest threat in the middle, though. With an eager eye for sliding defences and the sort of footwork still not receiving credit, Williams has scored off his right foot, left foot and by going straight up the guts to end up under the posts at different times this year.

Williams and Wighton will be a major focus of the Roosters attack this week. While performing well through the middle defensively to concede just 11 tries in that area, the Roosters right side is worth keeping an eye on.

The Roosters right edge is the weakness, but the 29 tries they've allowed through that area is still the fifth-fewest in the NRL. Overall, their 16.7 points conceded per game also ranks fifth in the competition.

Overeager at times, the Roosters have been caught out by changes of direction. Jarome Luai toyed with Kyle Flanagan on Friday night while Sitili Tupouniua focused too much of his attention on Viliame Kikau in this try:

Meanwhile, the Raiders defensive numbers mirror the Roosters attack. There isn't one area that draws significant attention. With Elliott Whitehead and John Bateman on the edges and paired with two strong defensive halves, the Raiders split the 57 tries they conceded in 2020 with 24 through the left and 23 through the right. 

Scoring has rarely been a problem for the Raiders over the years. Even in their disappointing seasons, the Green Machine kept the scoreboard turning over. But it's their 16 points conceded per game to be 4th in the NRL defensively that has them in the hunt for a return to the Grand Final.

Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs

It has been a season of two halves for the Parramatta Eels attack.

Dominating down the left edge to start the season, Dylan Brown, Shaun Lane, Michael Jennings and Maika Sivo ran riot. Expertsb at training the defence and turning one try into two, four tries against the Raiders and Cowboys earlier in the year highlight just how easy they did it.

Lane flies onto a Gutherson short ball before releasing an offload for Jennings to score the first. Minutes later and with Curtis Scott weary of a lead-running Lane, Gutherson skips the backrower for Sivo to go over in the corner for the second.

Gutherson produced two similar tries a week later. First, Jennings beats Kyle Feldt on the outside with relative ease to score. Feldt then rushes out on Jennings on the following set only for Gutherson to skip the centre with Sivo again the beneficiary. 

They're almost exactly the same plays but Gutherson picked the right option each time for Parramatta to score. That level of dominance saw the Eels score 22 tries (50%) down the left side in their first 11 games in 2020. In the ten games since then, however, they've managed just nine tries (33%) down that edge.

While Sivo has been ruled out for the season and Brown is nursing himself back to full-strength, the left edge attack will still make or break Parramatta's premiership chances.

It's no surprise to see where the South Sydney Rabbitohs cross the line. 

Similar to the Eels, the Rabbitohs scored the majority of their tries down the left side to start the season. Scoring 36 tries down the left edge up until Latrell Mitchell went down in Round 16, that side of the field accounted for 54% of South Sydney's total try-scoring output.

But unlike Parramatta, South Sydney has become more dangerous as the season goes on thanks in large part to regularly exploring down the right side.

They have still excelled down the left to score 44% of their 27 tries from Round 17 onwards on that side. Both Reynolds and Walker have chimed in with crisp passes and tempoed runs. 

But it's the increase in tries scored down the right side that has made the Rabbitohs so dangerous of late. Walker has popped up more often to lift their right side strike rate from 31% before Round 16 up to 37% since then.

While Parramatta have struggled to recapture their early-season form, the South Sydney attack is peaking at the right time heading into their clash on Saturday night.

The defensive struggles of Parramatta's right edge is no secret. Waqa Blake, in particular, has been a target for attacking teams in recent weeks. Melbourne had their way down that side of the field early last week and should have scored once or twice given the opportunities they created. Along with Blake's struggles at centre, Blake Ferguson leads all Parramatta players with 18 try causes this season with only seven players in the competition recording more.

But signs of a strong defence come through the middle. Parramatta's 15.4 points conceded per game is the third-best mark in the NRL and has come about in large part through their NRL-best ten tries conceded through the middle. They do the right things defensively to force teams to go around them, but lack the defensive specialists out wide to complete the job often enough to keep the top attacking outfits from scoring.

South Sydney, on the other hand, have impressed out wide. They've seen a regular turnover of players named in the centres and in the back row but have maintained a respectable defence conceding 17.7 points per game.

Overall, Souths have conceded 31 tries down the right side to 27 on the left. Neither side provides the opposition with a significant advantage. Although, Campbell Grahamhas had his struggles this season with Roosters and Panthers picking on him earlier in the year and Bradman Best getting by him last week.

There is little splitting any of the four teams running onto the field this week. However, the Stats Insider NRL Model has crunched the numbers and is tipping the Roosters and Rabbitohs to take the chocolates in Week 2 of the finals. They're the two superior attacking teams and both offered plenty in that deparement last week. But while the Raiders don't have the same weapons as the Chooks and the Eels are in scratchy form, both have shown enough with the ball in hand throughout the year to be in with a sniff of an upset.

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