NRL Ladder Predictor - Round 19, 2022 Futures

With State of Origin now in the rearview mirror, it's time to check in with our NRL futures model as everyone looks to make NRL Finals predictions and put together their final NRL ladder for 2022.

We know the Panthers will lead the premiership race through to the end of Round 25. However, there is a race to fill out the top four and five teams are fighting for their place inside the top eight. The wooden spoon is still undecided, too.

With plenty to play for from the top to the bottom of the ladder, we look at each NRL team's 2022 Premiership odds and go into what the rest of the season looks like.

Use the free information below to help you with your NRL ladder predictor as we approach a huge month of finals footy.

MORE: NRL Round 19 Tips

Brisbane Broncos

Premiership: 3.0%
Top four: 23.8%
Top eight: 88.0%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

We've seen teams surprise to start an NRL season ahead of falling to pieces by the end before. However, despite missing key players to injury and State of Origin, the Brisbane Broncos have kept the W's ticking over to be all but locked into the finals.

Two years after finishing with the wooden spoon and three since last playing finals football, the Broncos are at 88% to end the drought, with the Adam Reynolds signing proving to be a masterstroke. 

There is still an element of recent Broncos sides that struggle to make the most of dominant periods but Reynolds' influence and his kicking game have changed the way they work through those periods. The Broncos now stay on top or in the game more often than not and it shows in the results.

Canberra Raiders

Premiership: 0.5%
Top four: 0.2%
Top eight: 21.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Canberra Raiders are on the outside of the top eight looking in but aren't out of the conversation just yet.

It feels as though we're going to look back at Canberra's start to the season and circle two or three games that cost them a place in the finals by the end of it. However, with the easiest remaining NRL schedule in the competition, the Raiders have an opportunity to make a late run into September footy.

Winning 12 games typically puts a team into finals contention. Beating the four teams currently in the bottom five of the NRL ladder is enough to get the Raiders there while their Round 24 match against the Sea Eagles (currently 8th) could be the finals decider.

RELATED: NRL Run Home 2022

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.0%
Wooden Spoon: 11.5%

The Bulldogs have cut their chances of finishing with the wooden spoon in half following another decent month of football.

What Trent Barrett did with this side remains one of the great NRL mysteries. It took only four games for Mick Potter to coach his way to as many points (98) as Barrett managed in 10 games (96). They've since managed to average 23.3 points per game.

While the results remain the same with the Bulldogs winning only two games since Potter took over, the improvements are clear. This is a footy side playing with freedom and confidence, just falling short in their spine's inexperience and ability to execute in big moments.

The Bulldogs will get there in the end, and Potter should be the one to take them there.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Premiership: 14.2%
Top four: 80.9%
Top eight: 99.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

While neither the Storm or Cowboys were at their strongest in Round 17 and 18, the Sharks beating them so convincingly is encouraging.

That's what the good teams do to depleted opposition, and the longer the Sharks keep their place in the top four, the more they're considered NRL premiership smokies. Winning in North Queensland is particularly impressive given the Sharks' relative struggles away from home.

Craig Fitzgibbon has put together an attack that can score on anybody, with the Sharks moving the ball at speed and expose the slightest sign of indecision on the edge. Jesse Ramien is scoring tries for fun at the moment while Ronaldo Mulitalo (seventh) and Sione Katoa (second) are towards the top of the NRL's top try scorer list for 2022.

With the two big wins over tough opposition and a relatively comfortable schedule to finish the season, the Sharks have pushed their 39.9% to finish in the top four after Round 15 out to 80.9% heading into Round 19.

Gold Coast Titans

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.0%
Wooden Spoon: 26.4%

The Gold Coast Titans have lost seven games on the bounce.

Their 38-12 thrashing at the hands of the Knights in Round 16 will surely have triggered conversation in the Titans front office around the future of their coach, Justin Holbrook.

However, Holbrook's new-look side responded after the bye to fall just short of the Broncos 16-12 in Round 18. With some fresh faces and more shuffling of positions, the Titans played one of their season's best games.

That slight uptick in form has come at the right time ahead of what is the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NRL. With a game against the Bulldogs this week, and the Dragons, Knights and Warriors to come before the end of Round 25, the Titans have the draw to avoid the wooden spoon. 

They'll need to clean up their right edge defence, though. With 42 tries conceded through that side alone, it's the most fruitful avenue for opposition attacks in the competition.

RELATED: NRL Try Location Analysis

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Premiership: 1.7%
Top four: 3.0%
Top eight: 49.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles are starting to look like a top eight team.

The Sea Eagles averaged 35.6 points per game across their last five matches and have done so, not only without Tom Trbojevic, but without key players during the State of Origin period.

Forced into changing up how they use the ball and learning to rely less on Trbojevic, the Sea Eagles look better for it.

Reuben Garrick, in particular, has impressed since taking over at the back. He is active in support, eager on kick returns and has developed a handy little pass on the edge over the last 12 months. 

Where the Sea Eagles had struggled to get any production out of the fullback position without Trbojevic in recent years, Garrick is filling the void well. With Garrick's spot taken by the impressive Christian Tuipulotu, the Sea Eagles have developed much-needed depth and look well-positioned to sneak into the finals. 

Melbourne Storm

Premiership: 15.9%
Top four: 58.2%
Top eight: 97.9%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Melbourne Storm have lost three matches on the bounce, which we've not seen from Craig Bellamy's side since 2015.

To make matters worse for Bellamy, he's now looking for a new fullback.

The Storm spine came together in Round 18 for the first time since Round 9 but lasted only 20 minutes before Ryan Papenhuyzen left the field. Those 20 minutes justified Melbourne's place on the second line of the Stats Insider Futures Model's premiership predictions.

 However, given what we've seen in recent weeks and now the remainder of the season without their first-choice fullback, the gap between the Panthers and the rest of the competition has grown significantly. 

RELATED: NRL Premiership Probabilities 2022

Newcastle Knights

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.0%
Wooden Spoon: 4.5%

The Newcastle Knights have managed to work themselves out of the wooden spoon race, but there is little else to celebrate this season.

Jayden Brailey is back to provide some quality at hooker while Kalyn Ponga is in superb form. Still, the Knights attack is the third-worst in the NRL, averaging only 14.6 points per game, with dam O'Brien struggling to promote any improvement in this side.

There is enough individual talent on the roster to avoid 16th, though. Even Anthony Milford has produced some fine moments on his own to earn a contract with the Dolphins for 2023.

But more was expected of this team. They've neither made the run at the top eight many fans expected nor laid any platform for future improvement. Round 25 can't come soon enough for O'Brien and the Knights.

North Queensland Cowboys

Premiership: 7.1%
Top four: 71.4%
Top eight: 99.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

Like the Broncos, the North Queensland Cowboys are showing no signs of a late-season tumble down the ladder. In fact, this side looks like a genuine premiership contender.

The Panthers are way out in front and expected to win, but somebody has to play them in the NRL Grand Final. If this Cowboys side that has been able to pile up points all season while playing with one of the best defences in the NRL is there on the day, anything is possible.

Todd Payten has dragged this side from the bottom of the ladder to the top in 12 months. He has implemented systems that the playing group have embraced and the results speak for themselves. They'll only get better as the year goes on, too. Expect their current 7.1% to win the premiership to keep ticking up through to Round 25.

Parramatta Eels

Premiership: 9.1%
Top four: 39.3%
Top eight: 93.4%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

"The Parramatta Eels continue to be one of the most weird and wacky teams in the NRL." - Premiership Odds and Probabilities after Round 14.

The Parramatta Eels remain as one of the most weird and wacky teams in the NRL following another fairly unconvincing month of football.

Brad Arthur's side has won three of their last four games including a ripper against the Roosters in Round 15. However, there is still something lacking in this side. It's a premiership contender on paper, but we're not seeing it on the field just yet.

The Eels have the second-toughest run home of all 16 teams in the NRL. An improving Bulldogs side in Round 23 is the only opposition on Parramatta's remaining draw currently sitting outside the top eight.

We'll have a clear idea of where Parramatta sit in the premiership race by the end of the regular season.

Penrith Panthers

Premiership: 36.4%
Top four: 100%
Top eight: 100%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

Everybody has a good idea of what the Penrith Panthers are going to do every week.

Even in Round 18 with seven of their first-choice players unavailable after State of Origin, little changed.

Penrith hit the middle of the field in yardage through their back-three before introducing the bigger bodies later in the set. They plug both edges searching for an opportunity. If one doesn't present itself, they take a patient approach and play the territory game until one does.

The opposition know Penrith will look left in attack, too. The Panthers left edge is the most prolific area of the field of all 16 teams in the NRL with 53% of their tries coming down that side alone. Plan for it all you like, Viliame Kikau, Izack Tago and Taylan May will find a way to the line.

They're head and shoulders above the competition at the moment, and our model agrees pinning the Panthers as clear favourites for the NRL premiership at 36.4%.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Premiership: 8.1%
Top four: 18.9%
Top eight: 84.3%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

It has looked likely for months but the South Sydney Rabbitohs have finally clicked into gear. Unsurprisingly, Latrell Mitchell's return from injury had a lot to do with it.

In his two games, Mitchell has picked up five try assists, broken the line twice, thrown away 18 defenders and scored a beauty of a try in Round 18. 

Mitchell's return came at the right time for the Rabbitohs. They face the second-hardest remaining schedule across the rest of the season while chasing an unlikely spot inside the Top 4 (18.9%).

RELATED: NRL 2022 Run Home

St. George Illawarra Dragons

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.1%
Top eight: 7.1%
Wooden Spoon: 0.6%

We're into the 'board is meeting to discuss the coach' portion of the St. George-Illawarra Dragons season.

They're a board that seems to meet all of the time so it's unlikely that this latest gathering is about Anthony Griffin and Anthony Griffin alone. Still, they've lost back-to-back games to slip out of the top eight and are now roughly where they were expected to be - middling.

Ben Hunt is doing all he can to pull this team above mediocrity, but there is only so much one man can do. Even if that man is one of the favourites to win the Dally M Medal. 

Ultimately, the Dragons play with an average roster after spending the summer picking up the scraps of other clubs. It's not a surprise to see them 11th on the ladder this late in the season.

Sydney Roosters

Premiership: 4.0%
Top four: 4.1%
Top eight: 58.8%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Sydney Roosters are due some injury luck following their 2021 NRL season. They're not getting it in 2022, though.

Luke Keary has missed an extended period of time due to his latest head knock. He will return to a team without Sitili Tupouniua and Billy Smith after both were ruled out for the season in Round 18.

Just as the Roosters start to look like the side most anticipated heading into Round 1, the injury gods strike them down again.

However, Joey Manu may be in good enough form to save them, and there's an argument for him being the best player in the NRL over the last month. 

Manu has played centre and five-eighth for the Roosters while also slotting into fullback for the Kiwis, with his monthly stats reading like this:

Two tries
Four try assists
Four linebreaks
Seven linebreak assists
40 tackle breaks
850 running metres

If he keeps this up, the Roosters will build on their 4% to win the premiership regardless of the injuries.

New Zealand Warriors

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.0%
Wooden Spoon: 6.2%

Things are slowly starting to look up for the New Zealand Warriors.

Nathan Brown has gone, the team has improved, and an exciting new coach has been signed to take over in 2023. It's a little bit déjà vu for the club, but it's welcomed following the last 18 months of dire football on the field and embarrassing gaffes off it. 

Being forced to stay in Australia always had assumed negative implications but they became clear when the side returned to New Zealand in Round 16. Playing out their best 80 minutes of the season in front of a packed home crowd provided the playing group with the boost they needed to finish out the year.

The Warriors are no hope of playing finals football and are already on the backfoot for 2023 following Reece Walsh's confirmed departure. Still, there is plenty to play for over the last seven games and the Warriors look likely to improve across the back end of the season.

Wests Tigers

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.2%
Wooden Spoon: 51.4%

There is nothing more Wests Tigers than looking to 2005 in the hope of inspiring an improvement, but Tim Sheens, Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah have been locked in for 2023 and will already be formulating their plan.

Will Jackson Hastings be part of it? And will it be at lock?

The Tigers ran out their latest experiment with their best halfback put into #13 while Luke Brooks and Adam Doueihi filled out the halves. It doesn't matter where Hastings is named, he's the leader of the side with the ball.

Sheens no doubt had a say in the latest change. He will be looking at the last seven rounds of 2022 with 2023 in mind. Regardless of their plans moving forward, avoiding the wooden spoon needs to be at the top of the list. The Tigers are 51.4% favourites to finish the year with it right now.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)