NRL Premiership Betting Update - Round 26, 2023

Last updated: Aug 22, 2023, 12:34PM | Published: Aug 22, 2023, 11:48AM

With just two weeks to go until the 2023 NRL Finals, the Panthers remain the most likely premiers, whilst the Storm present the best value for punters.

The Penrith Panthers are looking to win their third straight premiership, and are an 83% chance of winning their third minor premiership in four years.

As for the actual premiership set to be won in October, the reigning premiers are rated as a 40.3% chance of winning, with their PointsBet odds at $2.20.

Despite being the favourites with both Stats Insider's NRL futures model, and Pointsbet, the Panthers are not the best value bet you make on the premiership right now. Instead, the value play according to our model is the Melbourne Storm.

The Storm currently sit in fourth place on the NRL ladder, and are the second best premiership chance according to our model, with a probability of 18%.

This probability of 18% equates to fair odds of $5.56, meaning punters can grab an edge of 4.7% on the Storm to win the flag in 2023.

The Storm could potentially lock up a top four spot this week as they take on the Titans at AAMI Park on Saturday afternoon.

2023 NRL Premiership Probabilities and Odds

Team	Probability	PointsBet Odds
Penrith Panthers	40.3%	$2.20
Melbourne Storm	18.0%	$7.50
Brisbane Broncos	13.4%	$3.50
Cronulla Sharks	10.3%	19
New Zealand Warriors	6.0%	13
South Sydney Rabbitohs	5.7%	34
Canberra Raiders	2.9%	81
Sydney Roosters	1.6%	41
Newcastle Knights	1.3%	23
North Queensland Cowboys	0.5%	101

All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.

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(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.