NRL Pro Punter Previews - Manly v South Sydney, Round 1 2024

It's NRL Round 1 from Vegas! Steve Green from Champion Bets has joined us for the 2024 NRL season, where he'll share his thoughts on every game!

Manly Sea-Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sunday, 1:30pm AEDT

Manly 2.10
South Sydney 1.74
Manly +1.5 (1.90) / South Sydney -1.5 (1.90)
Bet Right Markets

The Manly line up is exactly as I expected, with no real surprises. I like that new recruits Waddell and Brown have been given bench spots ahead of guys like Woods and Parker, while Lawton offers more utility value than Arhtur.

Seeing the Manly backline featuring Tom T, Luke Brooks and DCE is exciting. These guys are all great attacking players and when you throw in the speed of guys like Saab, Garrick and Koula, I think Souths outside backs will have to be at their best in defence.
For Souths, they also look strong with Latrell, Walker, Cook and Murray lining up in key positions, while their pack is also full of power.

The concern I do have for Souths is how Ilias will go at 7 and how Jacob Gagai and R Kenner will go out wide. This is where I think Manly may have a slight edge in terms of player strength. Walker and Ilias have not always been terrific kickers of the ball, with both prone to the odd howler.

And while J Paulo and R Garrick will be forming a new combination, these guys are both players in their prime… whereas Gagai is low on experience and Kenner is probably past his best with this being his 9th season in the NRL and never having played more than 10 games in a season, he is a fringe first grader.

The smaller field will help Manly in my opinion. Although their outside backs will have less opportunity to use their speed, Souths are a team that love to use the full width of the field and it is the reason why Alex Johnston is one of the game’s greatest ever try scorers.

The line has moved from Manly +2.5 to Manly +1.5.

Predicted score: Manly 20 - 18 Souths

Other betting markets

With the smaller field being used in Vegas, I think there are plenty of betting options on exotic markets. While none of the below are formal bet recommendations, they are just insights that you may find helpful in you like dabbling with exotic betting markets.

First Try Scorer
I am staying away from wingers and outside backs in the belief that it will be hard to go around teams and much more likely teams look for inside balls and crash over players. Big forwards such as Paseka and Aloia at long odds with most bookies are value, as both are strong carriers close to the line and Croker has gotten much better at engaging the markers close to the line.

Total points
I think both games go under. Often attacking timing is off early in the season and with smaller fields, I think the games will be much more of a grind.

Time of first try
I am taking over 8 minutes or 8.5 minutes depending on bookie / odds, as I think taking the penalty will be something teams do if given option and because it will be hard to score early with the smaller fields.

Neither team to score 20 points
I am taking this option at juicy odds of 4.50 with Bet Right for Neither Team First to 4 Tries. I think the closeness of the games and smaller fields could see neither team score more than 3 tries each in both games.

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