NSW vs QLD State of Origin Game 1 Prediction 2024
Last updated: Jun 2, 2024, 1:29AM | Published: May 27, 2024, 1:46AM
New South Wales will take on Queensland in Game 1 of the 2024 State of Origin series at Accor Stadium on Wednesday, beginning at 8:05pm AEST.
Stats Insider's top betting tips for State of Origin Game 1, as well as the latest betting odds and try scorer tips, are featured below.
Who Will Win: State of Origin Game 1
Based on state-of-the-art machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Game 1 of the 2024 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Maroons a 54% chance of defeating the Blues at Accor Stadium.
More: New South Wales vs Queensland Game 1
NSW vs QLD Game 1: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Accor Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: New South Wales $2.00, Queensland $1.80
- Line: New South Wales +1.5 ($1.91), Queensland -1.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 36.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has New South Wales at $2.00 and QLD at $1.80.
New South Wales is a 1.5-point underdog against Queensland, with odds of $1.91 currently on offer at TAB.
For the favourite Queensland (-1.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 36.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the over at $1.91 and odds for the under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's model, NSW (+1.5) has a 51% chance of covering the line, while the over/under total of 36.5 points has a 51% chance of staying Under.
More: Live Scores for All Sports
State of Origin Game 1: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Queensland at $1.80 (54% probability)
- Line: NSW +1.5 at $1.91 (51% probability)
- Total Points: Under 36.5 at $1.91 (51% probability)
Our State of Origin Game 1 predictions are based on market-leading modelling and gambling intelligence to give you the best possible advice 24/7.
State of Origin Game 1: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted score for State of Origin Game 1 at Accor Stadium this Wednesday is Queensland 18-18 New South Wales.
Due to there being no draws in Origin, there would of course be a winner determined if the scores were to be tied after 80 minutes.
The prediction of 18-18 is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. While there is no way for this game to end in a tie, our prediction of 18-18 is based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations by Stats Insider.
Stats Insider has full coverage of State of Origin Game 1 on Wednesday, including pre-match predictions and top betting tips.
State of Origin Game 1: Try Scorers
Who will score an anytime try in Game 1 of State of Origin? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Xavier Coates is the most likely player to score the first try in NSW vs QLD.
Coates has a 7.8% chance of scoring the first try at Accor Stadium, while the QLD star has a 39.0% chance of scoring a try at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
New South Wales Blues
- Brian To'o: 7.5% probability
- Zac Lomax: 7.3% probability
- Stephen Crichton: 6.1% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 4.6% probability
- Angus Crichton: 4.3% probability
Queensland Maroons
- Xavier Coates: 7.8% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 5.8% probability
- Reece Walsh: 5.3% probability
- Murray Taulagi: 5.2% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 4.6% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
New South Wales Blues
- Brian To'o: 38.0% probability
- Zac Lomax: 35.1% probability
- Stephen Crichton: 30.2% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 26.0% probability
- Angus Crichton: 25.3% probability
Queensland Maroons
- Xavier Coates: 39.0% probability
- Murray Taulagi: 29.5% probability
- Jeremiah Nanai: 29.1% probability
- Reece Walsh: 28.9% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 23.3% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting tips before the New South Wales vs Queensland match at Accor Stadium.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips on every State of Origin match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on, including every game of the 2024 NRL season.
NSW vs QLD Game 1: Preview
The State of Origin Game 1 between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: New South Wales vs Queensland
- Date: Wednesday 5 June 2024
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Accor Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
State of Origin Game 1: Confirmed Team Lists
Below is the list of confirmed players for both the Maroons and Blues for Game 1 of the 2024 State of Origin series.
Queensland Maroons
STARTERS
- Reece Walsh (Broncos)
- Xavier Coates (Storm)
- Valentine Holmes (Cowboys)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
- Murray Taulagi (Cowboys)
- Tom Dearden (Cowboys)
- Daly Cherry-Evans (C) (Sea Eagles)
- Reuben Cotter (Cowboys)
- Ben Hunt (Dragons)
- Lindsay Collins (Roosters)
- Jaydn Su'S (Broncos)
- Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys)
- Patrick Carrigan (Broncos)
INTERCHANGE
- Harry Grant (Storm)
- Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans)
- J'maine Hopgood (Eels)
- Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos)
RESERVES
- Felise Kaufusi (Dolphins)
- Brendan Piakura (Broncos)
- Ezra Mam (Broncos)
New South Wales Blues
STARTERS
- Dylan Edwards (Panthers)
- Brian To'o (Panthers)
- Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs)
- Joseph Sua'ali'i (Roosters)
- Zac Lomax (Dragons)
- Jarome Luai (Panthers)
- Nicho Hynes (Sharks)
- Jake Trbojevic (C) (Sea Eagles)
- Reece Robson (Cowboys)
- Payne Haas (Broncos)
- Liam Martin (Panthers)
- Angus Crichton (Roosters)
- Cameron McInnes (Sharks)
INTERCHANGE
- Isaah Yeo (Panthers)
- Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles)
- Spencer Leniu (Roosters)
- Hudson Young (Raiders)
RESERVES
- Matt Burton (Bulldogs)
- Luke Keary (Roosters)
- Mitchell Barnett (Warriors)
Our State of Origin Game 1 predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
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