NSW vs QLD State of Origin Game 3 Prediction 2023
Last updated: Jul 16, 2023, 8:46AM | Published: Jul 3, 2023, 2:31AM
New South Wales plays Queensland in Game 3 of the 2023 State of Origin series at Accor Stadium on Wednesday, commencing at 8:05pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for State of Origin Game 3, plus the latest betting odds and try scorer tips, are detailed in this article.
Who Will Win: State of Origin Game 3
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Game 3 of the 2023 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Maroons a 54% chance of beating the Blues at Accor Stadium.
More: New South Wales vs Queensland Game 3
NSW vs QLD Game 3: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Accor Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: New South Wales $2.20, Queensland $1.70
- Line: New South Wales +2.5 ($1.91), Queensland -2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 40.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has New South Wales at $2.20 and QLD at $1.70.
New South Wales is listed as a 2.5-point underdog against Queensland, with odds of $1.91 currently available at TAB.
For the favourite Queensland (-2.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.91.
The Over/Under for NSW vs QLD has been set at 40.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.91 and odds for the Under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's model, NSW (+2.5) has a 52% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 40.5 points has a 52% chance of staying Under.
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State of Origin Game 3: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: NSW at $2.20 with TAB (0.5% edge)
- Line: NSW +2.5 at $1.91 with TAB (52% probability)
- Total Points: Under 40.5 at $1.91 with TAB (52% probability)
These State of Origin Game 3 predictions are based on detailed simulations and wagering intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice every day of the year.
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While QLD has a higher chance of winning the game, betting on NSW to win is our preferred option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable punter in the long run.
State of Origin Game 3: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 3 at Accor Stadium on Wednesday has the Maroons prevailing 20-19.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of State of Origin Game 3 on Wednesday, including pre-match predictions and free betting tips.
State of Origin Game 3: Try Scorers
Who will score an anytime try in Game 3 of State of Origin? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Josh Addo-Carr is the most likely player to score the first try in NSW vs QLD.
Addo-Carr has a 9.2% chance of scoring the first try at Accor Stadium, while the NSW star has a 45.6% chance of scoring a try at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the full list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
New South Wales Blues
- Josh Addo-Carr: 9.2% probability
- Brian To'o: 6.1% probability
- Cody Walker: 5.5% probability
- James Tedesco: 5.1% probability
- Bradman Best: 4.9% probability
Queensland Maroons
- Xavier Coates: 8.4% probability
- Murray Taulagi: 7.1% probability
- David Fifita: 4.9% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 4.8% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 4.6% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
New South Wales Blues
- Josh Addo-Carr: 45.6% probability
- Brian To'o: 33.2% probability
- James Tedesco: 30.4% probability
- Bradman Best: 29.6% probability
- Cody Walker: 27.8% probability
Queensland Maroons
- Xavier Coates: 41.9% probability
- Murray Taulagi: 39.0% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 30.7% probability
- David Fifita: 29.2% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 27.1% probability
Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the New South Wales vs Queensland match at Accor Stadium.
As always, check out Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every State of Origin match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on, including every game of the 2023 NRL season.
NSW vs QLD Game 3: Preview
The State of Origin Game 3 between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: New South Wales vs Queensland
- Date: Wednesday 12 July 2023
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Accor Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
State of Origin Game 3: Confirmed Team Lists
Below is the list of confirmed players for both the Maroons and Blues for Game 3 of the 2023 State of Origin series.
Queensland Maroons
- AJ Brimson (Titans)
- Xavier Coates (Storm)
- Valentine Holmes (Cowboys)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
- Murray Taulagi (Cowboys)
- Cameron Munster (Storm)
- Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles)
- Reuben Cotter (Cowboys)
- Harry Grant (Storm)
- Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans)
- David Fifita (Titans)
- Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys)
- Patrick Carrigan (Broncos)
- Ben Hunt (Dragons)
- Lindsay Collins (Roosters)
- Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans)
- Corey Horsburgh (Raiders)
- Tom Dearden (Cowboys)
- J'maine Hopgood (Eels)
New South Wales Blues
- James Tedesco (Roosters)
- Brian To'o (Panthers)
- Stephen Crichton (Panthers)
- Bradman Best (Knights)
- Josh Addo-Carr (Bulldogs)
- Cody Walker (Rabbitohs)
- Mitchell Moses (Eels)
- Jake Trbojevic (Sea Eagles)
- Damien Cook (Rabbitohs)
- Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Eels)
- Liam Martin (Panthers)
- Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs)
- Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs)
- Isaah Yeo (Panthers)
- Jacob Saifiti (Knights)
- Reece Robson (Cowboys)
- Clinton Gutherson (Eels)
- Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys)
- Spencer Leniu (Panthers)
Our predictions for State of Origin Game 3 are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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