Open Championship Golf 2023 - Prediction and Tips
Last updated: Jul 24, 2023, 3:53AM | Published: Jul 18, 2023, 1:43PM
The final 2023 major in men's golf is this week, with the Open Championship set to go down just outside Liverpool, UK.
We are set for an incredible week of golf, with the favourites in Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in hot form on the PGA TOUR, while defending champion and Australian Cam Smith is looking to become the second player from LIV Golf to win a major in 2023.
Thanks to our powerful predictive analytics model, we have simulated all four days of action 10,000 times to determine who will win The Open as well as the probability of an Australian player lifting the claret jug.
Who will win the Open Championship?
The most likely winner of the 2023 Open Championship is Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler, the world number one in both the official world golf rankings as well as Stats Insider's golf rankings that include both PGA and LIV players, is projected to have a 13.7% chance of winning this week.
After Scheffler comes Rory McIlroy at an 8.7% probability and Jon Rahm with a win probability of 7.5%
Most Likely Winners at The Open 2023
- Scottie Scheffler: 13.7%
- Rory McIlroy: 8.7%
- Jon Rahm: 7.1%
- Patrick Cantlay: 5.1%
- Cameron Smith: 4.7%
- Xander Schauffele: 4.7%
- Tyrrell Hatton: 4.2%
- Collin Morikawa: 3.4%
- Rickie Fowler: 2.9%
- Wyndham Clark: 2.7%
Best Bet for Open Championship
As well as being the most likely winner of The Open, Scottie Scheffler is also our recommended best bet, with the best odds of $9 available at TAB.
With our model rating Scheffler as having a 13.7% chance of winning, punters are getting an edge of 2.6% by taking the $9 available at TAB.
Best Bets for The Open 2023: Australian Odds
| Player | Edge | Probability | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | 2.6% | 13.7% | $9 |
| Xander Schauffele | 1.5% | 4.7% | $31 |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.1% | 2.7% | $61 |
| Denny McCarthy | 1.8% | 2.6% | $151 |
Can an Australian win the Open Championship?
The most likely Australian winner of The Open this week is defending champion and recent winner on the LIV Golf tour, Cameron Smith.
Smith is the fifth most likely player in the field to win this week, with odds of $20 available at TopSport.
Overall, our model projects there to be a 6.6% chance of an Australian winning the tournament this week, with the next most likely being Jason Day and Adam Scott.
Most Likely Australian Winners at The Open 2023
- Cameron Smith: 4.7%
- Jason Day: 0.8%
- Adam Scott: 0.7%
- Min Woo Lee: 0.3%
- Lucas Herbert: 0.1%
MORE: Full predictions and odds for the Open Championship 2023
All odds and probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
