Outfoxed: What's Behind Leicester's Leaky Start To The Season?

No, England’s pre-season Community Shield doesn’t usually mean all that much yet there was something about Leicester’s 1-0 defeat of Manchester City in August that raised plenty of eyebrows. 

The win came a couple of months after the Foxes’ first FA Cup triumph in 52 years and off the back of an EPL season where the club was ensconced in the top-4 all season until blowing a UCL spot on the final day of the campaign. 

At Leicester, manager Brendan Rodgers had re-established himself as one of the brightest young managers in British football while the club nailed their transfers bringing in a host of talent over the summer which had many thinking they were ready to take the leap this season. 

Unfortunately, Leicester’s start to 2021/22 has been truly dreadful. 

The Foxes are currently mired in 12th spot in the EPL with only 3 clubs conceding more goals than them.

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While they’ve at times produced some promising football and positive results, think their 4-2 thumping of Manchester United and their 4-2 come-from-behind win away to Spartak Moscow in the Europa League, the reality is they are defending at a relegation-like level, the likes of which is preventing them from getting anywhere near last season’s heights. 

Since that 1-0 Community Shield triumph against Manchester City Leicester have played 17 games in EPL, EFL Cup and Europa League competition and kept just two clean sheets. It’s in fact now 10-straight games with the Foxes shipping at least one goal. 

While they have scored the equal 6th most amount of goals in the EPL and boast the league’s 5th best number from an expected goals perspective the reality is they’ve been ruthlessly picked apart all season (and by all manner of opposition) while digging a massive hole for themselves ahead of another international break.

So far this season only the relegation-threatened trio of Newcastle, Norwich and Burnley have conceded more shots and more shot creating actions per-90 minutes, while Leicester are constantly finding themselves on the back foot having conceded 6 goals in the first half-hour of matches which is a figure only Aston Villa (7) have faired worse in. 

Unlike so many modern teams with designs on trophies and high-end European participation, the Foxes under Rodgers are a club who don’t mind operating without the ball, relying on the the skill and precision of the likes of Youri Tielemans and James Maddison to unleash the speed of the Jamie Vardy and Patson Daka to slice their way through opponents and set up goal scoring opportunities. 

The problem with this approach is that it doesn’t allow for Leicester to establish a firm position further afield and is having an awful effect defensively where teams are able to pick the Foxes apart coming out of defence. 

At present, there’s no press to speak of where Leicester are concerned. They rank just 14th where attacking 3rd pressure acts are concerned and 17th for successful tackles in that same area of the park. 

Without any form of pressure opponents are able to pick their spots against the Leicester defence with most choosing to exploit them with the long ball owing to the Foxes lack of structure and speed in behind the ball.This season Leicester are 1 of just 5 teams to have at least 1,100 long balls attempted against them with 677 passes of more than 30 yards against them hitting their target which places them 17th in the league. 

For Leicester fans what would be most unsettling about these defensive lapses and lack of structure is that these are the precise areas which ruined their top-4 chances last season and which clearly haven’t been remedied. 

Last season with 9 games to play the Foxes were just 1-point off second and had a massive 7-point break on the 5th place team. At that point a return to UCL football appeared almost certain yet Leicester imploded losing 5 of their last 9 games- a period where they kept just one clean sheet and shipped no less than 18 goals.

Along with the frustration of so many of last season’s sins coming back to bite them would be the regret of knowing that a top-4 spot was (perhaps still is) very much up for grabs again this campaign. 

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While Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have for the most part ran away with the league with 1 of those 3 teams winning the title in 97.3% of Stats Insider’s simulations, it’s anyone’s game where filling up that final UCL place in concerned. 

Clearly, Manchester United are in shambles, as too are Tottenham who have most recently turned to Antonio Conte to right their ship. Arsenal have got their act together, and while West Ham and Brighton look sharp, the reality is it is a bit of dog’s breakfast outside of the EPL’s big 3.

To this point Leicester haven't been capable of taking advantage of the early season mayhem, yet despite their struggles are just 7 points off 4th spot. 

If nothing else the Foxes have proven they can score and create and if Rodgers is able to tighten their ship, then perhaps they can get themselves back into the fight for a UCL spot. 

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