Panthers Firm in 2023 NRL Minor Premiership Race
Last updated: Jun 28, 2023, 10:38AM | Published: Jun 28, 2023, 8:33AM
The Penrith Panthers pulled off an impressive win last weekend to take the lead in the race for the 2023 NRL minor premiership.
Aiming to finish on top of the ladder for the third time in four years, the Panthers are now projected as more likely to do so than not, with our futures model rating Penrith a 53.4% chance of winning the 2023 minor premiership.
Despite missing a host of starters to both Origin duty and injury, the Panthers overcame the Knights in Round 17 to jump up from a probability of 40.3% to win the minor premiership.
With the Panthers, Broncos, and Storm all within one win of each other at the top of the table, our NRL strength of schedule paints a picture as to why the reigning premiers are favoured to stay in first place.
With nine games to play for Penrith and Melbourne and eight for Brisbane, it's the Panthers who have the least difficult run home of the three.
As we approach the final couple of months of the season, the Storm have the most difficult run home in the entire NRL, while the Broncos have the fourth toughest and the Panthers the eighth.
The remainder of the NRL regular season will of course play a big part in the upcoming finals, where the Panthers are rated as a 31.6% chance of winning their third straight NRL premiership.
Interestingly, the Storm are currently favoured to beat the Panthers this week, with Melbourne projected to have a win probability of 54% on its home turf.
MORE: NRL Tips For This Weekend - Round 18, 2023
2023 NRL Minor Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 53.4% |
| Melbourne Storm | 15.6% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 13.4% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 5.2% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 4.7% |
| Parramatta Eels | 3.4% |
| New Zealand Warriors | 2.1% |
| Canberra Raiders | 2.0% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
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(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
