Panthers Reclaim Top Position in NRL Premiership Probabilities
Last updated: Mar 16, 2023, 5:59AM | Published: Mar 16, 2023, 5:48AM
The Panthers are once again the most likely team to win the 2023 NRL premiership, according to Stats Insider's latest data-driven analysis.
After starting the season as our most likely NRL premiership winners, Penrith fell behind the Rabbitohs following its shock loss to the Dolphins in Round 1.
But the Panthers bounced back in style with a 16-10 win over Souths on Thursday night and have now leapfrogged the Rabbitohs, per our NRL futures model.
The Panthers have the highest probability of winning the 2023 NRL premiership ahead of the Rabbitohs, Roosters, and Cowboys.
The Panthers, who firmed into $4.25 with the TAB to win the 2023 NRL grand final after drifting to $6.00, lead our premiership probabilities at 19.0%, ahead of the Rabbitohs at 16.2%.
The Roosters are next best with a 13.5% chance of winning the 2023 NRL premiership, while the Cowboys at 13.6% round out the top four chances despite going down 28-16 to the Broncos.
READ: NRL Predictions: How Far Can the Dolphins Go In 2023?
2023 NRL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 19.0% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 16.2% |
| Sydney Roosters | 13.5% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 12.6% |
| Melbourne Storm | 10.3% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 9.7% |
| Parramatta Eels | 4.7% |
| Canberra Raiders | 3.8% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
Dolphins Drive Up Top Eight Probabilities
The Dolphins are undefeated to start the 2023 NRL season, and according to Stats Insider's predictive analytics model, they are favourites to make it three wins in a row.
The Dolphins face the Knights on Friday night with a 60% win probability, the first time since their inception that they will go into a game as a favourite with our predictive model.
After starting the season as one of the favourites for most losses, the Dolphins probability to make the top eight is currently at 28%, with the TAB moving the NRL's newest team into the $3.00 quote to secure a finals berth.
MORE: Latest NRL News for Season 2023
Tigers Probable For Most Losses
Wests are currently anchored to the bottom of the ladder, and after losing to the Knights at home, the Tigers are the most likely team to have the most NRL losses in 2023 according to both the bookmakers and our NRL futures model.
The Tigers started the game against Newcastle with a 57% win probability, but dipped to 41.8% just after the 12-minute mark and never regained favouritism with our in-play model against the team previously with the highest most losses probability.
After starting the 2023 #NRL season without a win, the bottom-placed Tigers are our predictive model's most probable team to end the year with the most losses.
— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) March 16, 2023
Our NRL futures model has the Tigers as a 23.5% chance to have the most losses this season, which is the highest probability of any team so far in 2023.
Their most losses probability could raise even higher considering their upcoming schedule.
Stats Insider's NRL Schedule Difficulty analysis believes the Tigers have a tough period ahead, facing the Bulldogs, Storm, Broncos and Eels across the next month.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
