Patriots vs Bills Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 18, 2025
Last updated: Jan 5, 2025, 6:01PM | Published: Dec 31, 2024, 1:50AM
The New England Patriots will take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 18 action at Gillette Stadium on Monday, starting at 5:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Patriots vs Bills game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's New England vs Buffalo NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Bills a 65% chance of winning against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Patriots vs Bills: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Patriots $2.45, Bills $1.59
- Line: Patriots +3 ($1.91), Bills -3 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 36.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $2.45 and the Bills at $1.59.
The Patriots are 3-point underdogs against the Bills, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Bills (-3) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 36.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bills (-3) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 36.5-point over/under is expected to go over 56% of the time.
Patriots vs Bills: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Buffalo at $1.59 with Bet365
- Line: Bills -3 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 36.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Patriots vs Bills best bets are based on world-class modelling and wagering intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice around the clock.
Patriots vs Bills: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Bills at Gillette Stadium in Week 18 is the Bills winning 20-17.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the New England vs Buffalo game in Week 18, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
For in-depth analysis from US experts,, check out Dimers' detailed Patriots vs Bills prediction.
Patriots vs Bills: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Bills? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's Ray Davis is the most likely player to score the first TD in Patriots vs Bills.
Davis has an 8.1% chance of getting in for six first at Gillette Stadium, while the Bills RB has a 27.9% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- Antonio Gibson: 7.4% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 6.8% probability
- Kayshon Boutte: 6.1% probability
- DeMario Douglas: 5.9% probability
- Austin Hooper: 5.4% probability
Bills First TD Tips
- Ray Davis: 8.1% probability
- James Cook: 7.3% probability
- Keon Coleman: 6.5% probability
- Ty Johnson: 6.5% probability
- Quintin Morris: 5.6% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Antonio Gibson: 28.1% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 25.0% probability
- Kayshon Boutte: 22.8% probability
- DeMario Douglas: 21.3% probability
- Austin Hooper: 20.9% probability
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- Ray Davis: 27.9% probability
- James Cook: 25.5% probability
- Keon Coleman: 23.6% probability
- Ty Johnson: 23.1% probability
- Quintin Morris: 20.1% probability
Patriots-Bills Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 176 passing yards. The Bills' Mitchell Trubisky is expected to throw for just 141 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 176 projected passing yards
Bills Starting QB
- Mitchell Trubisky: 141 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 36 projected yards
- Antonio Gibson: 34 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 25 projected yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- Ray Davis: 38 projected yards
- James Cook: 33 projected yards
- Ty Johnson: 30 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- DeMario Douglas: 41 projected yards
- Kendrick Bourne: 41 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 39 projected yards
- Austin Hooper: 33 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 15 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Keon Coleman: 38 projected yards
- Mack Hollins: 25 projected yards
- Quintin Morris: 22 projected yards
- Khalil Shakir: 18 projected yards
- Curtis Samuel: 15 projected yards
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the New England vs Buffalo match-up.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips for every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Patriots vs Bills: Week 18 Essential Details
The NFL Week 18 match-up between the Patriots and Bills at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
- Date: Monday 6 January 2025
- Time: 5:00am AEDT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our New England vs Buffalo predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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