Patriots vs Commanders Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 9, 2023
Last updated: Nov 5, 2023, 6:01PM | Published: Oct 31, 2023, 10:50AM
The New England Patriots face the Washington Commanders in NFL Week 9 action at Gillette Stadium on Monday, beginning at 5:00am AEDT.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for Patriots vs Commanders, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips, are featured in this article.
Who Will Win: Patriots vs Commanders
Based on advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Monday's New England-Washington NFL game 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Patriots a 61% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 9 of the NFL season.
More: Patriots vs Commanders Match Centre
Patriots vs Commanders: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Patriots $1.69, Commanders $2.30
- Line: Patriots -3 ($1.95), Commanders +3 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 40.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, PointsBet currently has the Patriots at $1.69. Meanwhile, bet365 currently has the Commanders at $2.30.
The Patriots are 3-point favourites against the Commanders, with odds of $1.95 currently available at PointsBet.
For the underdog Commanders (+3) to cover the line, bet365 currently has odds of $1.91.
The Over/Under for Patriots vs Commanders has been set at 40.5 with bet365, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.91 and odds for the Under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's model, the bookies have got it right and both the Patriots and the Commanders have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The Over/Under total of 40.5 points has a 55% chance of going Over.
More: Super Bowl Probabilities and Odds
Patriots vs Commanders: Best Bets
- Head to Head: New England at $1.69 with PointsBet (61% probability)
- Line: Patriots -3 at $1.95 with PointsBet (50% probability)
- Total Points: Over 40.5 at $1.91 with bet365 (55% probability)
Our Patriots vs Commanders predictions are based on world-class modelling and gambling expertise to provide you with the best possible advice 24/7.
Patriots vs Commanders: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Commanders at Gillette Stadium in Week 9 has the Patriots winning 22-19.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of New England vs Washington in Week 9, including pre-game predictions, computer tips, and live win probabilities.
Patriots vs Commanders: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Commanders? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, New England's Ezekiel Elliott is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Commanders.
Elliott has a 9.6% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Patriots RB has a 38.3% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- Ezekiel Elliott: 9.6% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 9.1% probability
- Demario Douglas: 7.7% probability
- Hunter Henry: 7.2% probability
- Jalen Reagor: 5.4% probability
Commanders First TD Tips
- Brian Robinson: 8.5% probability
- Terry McLaurin: 8.0% probability
- Jahan Dotson: 6.4% probability
- Logan Thomas: 6.3% probability
- Antonio Gibson: 6.0% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Ezekiel Elliott: 38.3% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 36.7% probability
- Demario Douglas: 31.0% probability
- Hunter Henry: 28.4% probability
- Jalen Reagor: 23.9% probability
Commanders Anytime TD Tips
- Brian Robinson: 33.7% probability
- Terry McLaurin: 32.3% probability
- Jahan Dotson: 27.7% probability
- Logan Thomas: 27.0% probability
- Antonio Gibson: 25.1% probability
Patriots-Commanders Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Mac Jones is projected for 187 passing yards, while the Commanders' Sam Howell is expected to throw for 243 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Mac Jones: 187 projected passing yards
Commanders Starting QB
- Sam Howell: 243 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 43 projected yards
- Ezekiel Elliott: 32 projected yards
- Mac Jones: 8 projected yards
Commanders Rushing Yards
- Brian Robinson: 42 projected yards
- Sam Howell: 18 projected yards
- Antonio Gibson: 15 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Demario Douglas: 48 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 31 projected yards
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 28 projected yards
- Jalen Reagor: 20 projected yards
- Mike Gesicki: 17 projected yards
Commanders Receiving Yards
- Terry McLaurin: 68 projected yards
- Jahan Dotson: 39 projected yards
- Logan Thomas: 37 projected yards
- Jamison Crowder: 37 projected yards
- Antonio Gibson: 18 projected yards
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the New England vs Washington game at Gillette Stadium.
As always, check out Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
Patriots vs Commanders: Week 9 Preview
The NFL Week 9 match-up between the Patriots and Commanders at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 5:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders
- Date: Monday 6 November 2023
- Time: 5:00am AEDT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for New England vs Washington have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on NFL
Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on the NFL in Australia, with the latest NFL betting news, predictions for every NFL game, and Super Bowl odds for the NFL.
