Despite the best efforts of Josh Kennedy and Jayden Laverde to deny us, the winning continued at Club 20 last week, locking in the turnaround in form that started at Muirfield a fortnight ago. 

What should have been a monster pay day in Perth on Sunday turned into just a mild weekend saver thanks to the 4 missed shots on goal from the best (illegibly) goalkicker in the comp.

With a soft field in the PGA and a bead on some wild weather in QLD, confidence around the front bar has returned to pre-covid levels as we look to attack! 

AFL – ROUND 8

With teams being named on different days for the next 25 days straight, our AFL bets will be mostly confined to the Club 20 twitter feed so give us a follow if you haven’t already. 

Eager to see the numbers on Hawkins to take the Dockers defence apart ala Kennedy last week who should have paid us off big time but instead fell to 4.4 in his 250th. WTF Josh!

Speaking of hard-done-by, Laverde should have also paid us off big last weekend – it was a winning week for us in AFL but ANY danger of some luck in front of the big sticks footy gods??

Wet Weather Multi

Rain about tonight on the goldy kills all bets we would have been keen to make aside from the Unders we have already taken. 

Those that follow us on twitter will be delighted with the vast mass of blue, yellow and red inexorably approaching south east queensland on the BOM radar today, because we got on three Totals bets on Wednesday that have all started to move.  

Expect the totals for the Suns/Dogs, Roos/Blues and Dees/Lions games to all come down rapidly this afternoon with 50-100mm forecast to fall on the gold coast and 30-60mm on Brisbane between tonight and Sunday afternoon. 

We’ve already bet the Unders on those three games singly, as well as the two leg combinations and the 3 leg multi, expecting that even if it doesn’t piss down during play, the ground will be wet enough to severely impact ball movement and significantly advantage defences.

PGA TOUR – 3M OPEN

Our distaste for John Rahm’s very large bottom lip and a weekend meltodown from Christiaaaaaaan Bezeidenhout stopped us from getting amongst the cash at the Memorial last week but all in all it was a good week to have a small card as it was an absolute shit show there at Muirfield. 

Feeling much better about taking some flyers this week at TPC Twin Cities where the number will likely be around -20 on a course where ball striking Tee-to-Green will be richly rewarded. 

Weather wise it looks to be relatively ok Day 1, slightly breezy later in the day but it will be doubly do on Friday so we are factoring that a little into our selections particularly our roughies. 

A PM/AM tee time looks slightly adventageous. The five guys below are all EW bets so even if Casey doesn’t win, a top 5 will see us break even. 

Paul Casey

The clear standout at the top. Would have sailed into the weekend had it not been for a brain-fade 8 on the Par 3, blading his second out of the bunker, over the green and into the water. It was one bad hole in 36 though and that +5 on a Par 3 saw him miss the cut on the number for a +4 finish. 

He is a ball striking specialist, on an easy course, in a shithouse field, at over 20-1. Don’t overthink it. 

Bernd Weisberger

The charcoal cheeseburger is popping on everyone’s radar this week in what could be the misprice of the season. He was first up at a very very difficult course in wind with lightning fast greens so he gets a pass for missing the cut by 3 shots in a major-strength field. Better for the run and all that jazz. 

The guy is 29th in the world rankings which puts him 5th in this field. Can put up birdies in bunches and generally is a very solid T2G player. Case to be made for fading him in daily fantasy due to ownership, but it makes no sense to not bet him at these prices. 

Sam Ryder

Id like to say first off that this is a considered, thoughtful selection and has absolutely nothing to do with my kid watching Paw Patrol last night. 

Going off some scintillating last-start form where Ryder gained almost 10 strokes on the field tee-to-green. Ryder has only done better 4 times in his career, and those times came back to back (T2, T7 John Deere, Barbasol 2018, then a few months later a T4 and a T3 at the Safeway and Shriners respectively). 

My point is when he has those white hot ball striking events, they stick around for another one and hopefully, his T7 form at the Workday last week can be rekindled here at a course he played in 2019 for a T34. 

Chase Seiffert

Ok shit, maybe these bloody cartoons on in the background are seeping into my subconscious. If Mayor Humdinger is on the bottom of this card we will have our answer!

Another guy with great last-start form coming off a career-best T4 at the Workday Charity Open. Putts lights out on Bent too but it’s his approach game that has us interested here – has not lost strokes on approach since Houston in 2019, and after two missed cuts coming into the Workday, he seemed to arrest his issues off the tee. Running with the recent form in a weak field. 

Robby Shelton

I have no data for you to back this selection up. He is coming off 4 missed cuts where he lost to the field in almost every category, but Robby with a Y sneaks onto the end of our card at massive odds because he has shown over his short career he can spike a top 10 in a weak field (T11 at Honda, T7 at Greenbrier 2019). 

This field is so bad and Shelton’s Korn Ferry stats were not that far behind Wolff, Scheffler and co, he just hasn’t had that breakthrough tournament yet. Going off late will be hard tonight, but if he can hold it together I suspect we could see a big Friday morning move. This is a pure feeling play, taking Top 20/40 as well.

PGA – EUROPEAN TOUR: BRITISH MASTERS

I’m absolutely kicking myself for forgetting to pull the trigger at three figures pre-tourney, and for forgetting to tweet it out as well (a thousand pardons) but Callum Hill is still 41-1 and well worth a go given the lack of pedigree and experience that currently sits above him on the leaderboard. 

Missed a few gettable birdie chances in Round 1, could have very easily been 5 or 6 under. Sucks we don’t get the pre-tourney odds, but it is still a solid play at good ew odds.