Port Adelaide Powers to Top of AFL Premiership Probabilities
Last updated: Jun 19, 2023, 6:48AM | Published: Jun 19, 2023, 6:48AM
Port Adelaide is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's AFL model, Port Adelaide has a 23.1% chance of winning the 2023 AFL premiership, putting them at the top of the probabilities for the first time this season.
Collingwood at 19.7% moved to second in the premiership probabilities, while Melbourne at 18.3% and Brisbane at 13.5% round out the top four most likely teams to win the 2023 flag.
Port Adelaide is on the second line of premiership betting at Betfair at the $4.50 quote, with an implied probability of 22.2%.
Port Adelaide recorded its 11th consecutive win when it defeated Geelong 110-72 in Round 14 to move one game clear on top of the AFL ladder.
Stats Insider's AFL data analyst says Port Adelaide's 2023 AFL season to date has the Power as the justified most likely premiership winners.
"Port Adelaide's 11th win in a row was a statement game," he said
"Geelong had won two of its previous three games at Adelaide Oval against Port Adelaide and looked right in the contest at half-time until a seven-goal Power surge in the third quarter separated the two teams.
"While our AFL schedule difficulty analyser says Port Adelaide has the hardest run home of any team in the AFL, the Power are currently on the longest active win streak in club history and a game clear on top of the ladder.
"At this stage of the season, Port Adelaide is our AFL model's most likely premiership winner."
Port Adelaide's mid-season bye is in Round 15.
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Port Adelaide Power | 23.1% |
| Collingwood Magpies | 19.7% |
| Melbourne Demons | 18.3% |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.5% |
| Geelong Cats | 9.1% |
| Western Bulldogs | 3.8% |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.1% |
| St Kilda Saints | 2.9% |
| Richmond Tigers | 2.5% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
