Premier League Monthly Movement: December

Ahead of a massive mid-week clash between Liverpool and Manchester City which could have title ramifications, we take our monthly gaze at the SI futures table to pick out any potential edges in the three major futures markets (title win, top four, relegation).

Fun fact: 2018/19 is the first ever Premier League season to see three clubs earn 40+ points by Christmas. A three-horse race? 

For more information on our Premier League Futures, click here.

LIVERPOOL (1st, 54pts)

Where does Liverpool’s first loss come from? If they can successfully negotiate Manchester City later this week, it’s hard to see. Arsenal became the first visiting club this season to open the scoring at Anfield and it only awoke the sleeping giant, didn’t it?

They ended the calendar year in style, becoming the first club in the Premier League era to win all of their December fixtures. Given that they had to fit seven matches into a four week period, that is an incredible return. Jurgen Klopp, lamenting the lack of winter break for their late-season fade-away, seems to have rectified this issue as the Reds only get better while the remaining aspirants continue to find banana peels in their way.

This upcoming game against City is likely to answer a lot of questions, particularly about how City can perform with Kevin de Bruyne at full fitness. Liverpool have back-to-back home games later in the month against Crystal Palace and Leicester, both of whom have caused trouble for other title contenders recently.

When the model simulates all remaining fixtures of the season 10,000 times, it has Liverpool winning the title in a remarkable 62.5% of simulations. That equates to odds of 1.60 in a 100% betting market; so in our opinion, the 1.60 on offer is still worth taking, particularly when bookmaker margins are accounted for. 

If you backed them for top four earlier in the season (we had them as a 78.8% chance in pre-season), start spending your collect: they miss the top four in just 1.9% of simulations, which is well and truly inside the realms of ridiculousness. 

TOTTENHAM (2nd, 48pts)

Spurs have jumped to second ahead of City after another victory over Cardiff, who are still yet to score a Premier League goal against Tottenham. Now with 18 goals in their last six matches, they continue to fly under the radar. 

Still amazingly the only club in Europe’s major leagues to have not drawn a single league match (Arsenal were the last team to go 19 games without a draw - must be a North London thing), Spurs are slipping up on too many occasions to give me - the most optimistic of ‘yiddos’ - a great deal of hope of pulling off a miracle here. 

They have three very winnable games coming up in January, though Spurs fans will be wary of hosting Watford after the loss in September. 

Our value futures bet before and during the first three months of the season, the SI model no longer considers the market to be undervaluing their chances. Tottenham are pinching the title from the two major contenders in just 4.5% of simulations, equating to odds of 22 in a 100% market. That makes the $21-26 available a fair price. 

Spurs are taking a Champions League place in 88.3% of simulations (compared with 62.2% in pre-season), so the $1.14 price for a top-four finish is a fair value (though I would never recommend those odds to anyone). 

MANCHESTER CITY (3rd, 47pts)

If KdB has made it through the Southampton game unscathed, look out: the holy trinity of de Bruyne, Silva and Fernandinho will be starting against Liverpool. It’s no coincidence that Man City had acquired 58 points in their first 20 matches last season when these three had started in 18 of them. 

Their attacking fluidity and range of options are already ridiculously threatening: they have registered 42 assists this season for their 54 goals, with just nine ‘unassisted goals’ (penalties, direct turnovers, deflections, dribbles and so on), whereas Liverpool have a staggering 21 unassisted goals. 

Liverpool at home will be a huge test, with Wolves the next week also a fixture that will be taken seriously given their giant-killer reputation of late. Trips to Huddersfield and Newcastle should be six points in the kitty.

Manchester City are now winning 31.1% of SI simulations, which equates to odds of $3.20, down from 47.7% in pre-season predictions. The $2.60 available in our opinion is no good, given the three losses in December and the apparent invincibility of the Reds.

CHELSEA (4th, 44pts)

A seemingly low 50.1% chance to finish top four pre-season, Chelsea now look quite secure thanks to the doldrums that Manchester United have been in. They too couldn’t get through December unscathed, dropping six points in total to Wolves and to Leicester. 

Though not highly rated by some fans after a couple of memorable blunders, Kepa Arrizabalaga continues to play a big part in Chelsea’s success this season, pulling off an average 5.75 saves per goal conceded (in comparison Hugo Lloris averages 3.13). Using that particular stat can sometimes say more about the back four in front of the keeper than the man himself, but it’s certainly worth noting.

Only 38 goals scored is of some concern, and that hasn't been helped by a 0-0 draw with Southampton at home, though they have Newcastle up next. Three points away to Arsenal would go a long way to shoring up their place in the top four. 

With Chelsea finishing top four in 75.2% of 10,000 simulations, the $1.22 currently on offer is of no value. 

ARSENAL (5th, 41pts)

For the first time in over 40 years (since 1976/77), Arsenal have conceded 30+ goals in their first 20 games, and it goes a long way to explaining why they are just a 29% chance of finishing top four despite being less than one game adrift with half a season to play. 76/77… Liverpool went on to finish champions ahead of Man City by just one point in that season! 

Considered a 35.4% chance of top four at the beginning of the season, that number has since dropped to 25.6% after dropping points in too many winnable games throughout the last 12 weeks (Crystal Palace, Wolves, Southampton, Brighton to name a few). They have just three PL clean sheets and none in their last six matches in all competitions. 

As mentioned above, the match against Chelsea will be crucial in keeping up with the top four. The $4.00 for top four is a fair price at this stage, though they have a few issues to sort out before I’d want to take it.

MANCHESTER UNITED (6th, 38pts)

Are the Red Devils on the verge of an inspired turnaround? Ole Gunner Solksjaer has now equalled Sir Matt Busby’s record of winning his first four PL fixtures in charge of United (1946) after their win this morning against Newcastle. The side are averaging nearly four goals a game under the Swedish caretaker, albeit against some fairly easy opposition. Still, the Swede is going a long way towards securing a long-term place as gaffer at Old Trafford.

United have dropped points only to Liverpool in their last five fixtures and morale is high at the training ground, with reports of Sir Alex making a visit over the new year’s break as well as Luke Shaw apparently spending 6000 quid on hampers for club staff. 

Should they take at least a point against Tottenham, they’ll be well placed to end the month on 45pts and within striking distance of top four.

The SI model still has them achieving that only in 15.4% of 10,000 simulations, equating to 6.50 in a 100% market. That makes the 5.00 available poor value.

LEICESTER (7th, 31pts)

WATFORD (8th, 29pts)

WOLVES (9th, 29pts)

WEST HAM UNITED (10th, 28pts)

EVERTON (11th, 27pts)

BOURNEMOUTH (12th, 27pts)

BRIGHTON (13th, 26pts)

These seven clubs are consigned to little more than making up the numbers, all considered less than a 5% chance of top four or relegation.

CRYSTAL PALACE (14th, 22pts)

The Eagles continue their second-best season in the Prem this decade after a shock defeat of Manchester City earlier in the month followed up by a win against Wolves this morning. Only a 6% chance of relegation according to the SI model (compared with 11.4% at the beginning of the season), they cannot yet afford complacency, sitting only six points above the bottom three (at time of publication). 

Tough trips to Liverpool and Southampton also await, so Crystal Palace will do very well to remain out of the woods come end of January. They desperately need Wilfried Zaha to regain his form again - he has no goals or assists to his name after 11 PL appearances (not including this week’s encounter with Wolves) after a run of eight goals and two assists in 12 matches before that. 

NEWCASTLE (15th, 18pts)

The Toons have been a beacon of inconsistency, hitting another brick wall in December after seemingly climbing out of the depths of relegation in November. They collected just six points in December, leaving them averaging around one point per match - an average, if sustained, that would likely see them potentially in trouble, and Rafa Benitez almost certainly looking for work.

Second halves have been their major issue, with their -12 second half goal difference the third-worst in the league (behind Fulham and Burnley). For second halves alone they would sit in 17th on the table!

The men in black and white are currently finishing inside the relegation zone in 18% of 10,000 simulations, up from 10.1% in pre-season but down drastically from the numbers that their ten-game winless start to the season was producing. With that kind of probability, we’d want to be seeing odds of at least 5.00 to be inspired to back Newcastle for relegation. We’re not getting those anywhere at the moment. 

BURNLEY (16th, 18pts)

Burnley have climbed out of the relegation zone - for now - after two wins in four days against fellow strugglers Huddersfield and mid-table West Ham.

They are still yet to lead a PL away game at half-time this season (D7 L4), and trips to Watford and Manchester United in January are unlikely to improve those numbers. Four consecutive games with goals on the board is quite encouraging given their difficulties to score in the first half of the season.

Burnley are being relegated in 54.7% of 10,000 futures simulations ($1.82), so the $1.75 price is quite fair. If you can find $1.80 about it could be worth taking, given they have to face Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal in their last four weeks and therefore should be shorter in a couple of months. 

CARDIFF CITY (17th, 18pts)

Cardiff City came into this season as the most favoured side for relegation according to the SI futures model (64.8%) and since then they have done only a little bit to stave off relegation talk. 

They have collected seven points from their last six matches, more than seven other PL clubs including fellow relegation contenders. 

The Bluebirds have struggled badly against the “big six” clubs - more than anyone else, in fact, having scored just six goals and conceding 25 in their seven matches against the PL giants this season. 

With four “big six” opponents in their last seven rounds, Cardiff will need to take advantage of an easier next couple of months to ensure they have some breathing space in April.The Welsh club are now being relegated in 51.2% of SI futures simulations, which makes the 1.90 price fair and worth taking if you believe in it. 

SOUTHAMPTON (18th, 16pts)

Considered the tenth most likely side to be relegated by the model at the start of the season, Southampton got themselves well and truly in contention with a 12-game winless run that led to the demise of Mark Hughes. It remains their worst start to a PL season this decade, but new gaffer Ralph Hasenhüttl got some better results immediately, with the Saints scoring six goals in two consecutive victories. The draw at Chelsea was encouraging.

If they can claim four points from their remaining three games in January, it’ll go a long towards survival. The home game against Everton, amazingly, seems the most winnable of the three - they are travelling even worse than Southampton at the moment!

The model now has Southampton dropping in 15.2% of simulations (up from 8.9% in pre-season), so the $6.00 seems about the right price when bookmaker margins are accounted for.  

FULHAM (19th, 14pts)

We identified Fulham as a value relegation bet at $3.50 at the end of September, where the model rated them as the third-most likely side to drop down to the Championship. They are now second favourites for relegation at just $1.50 - we hope somebody took the great price back then!

Despite taking six points in December (five at home), other relegation contenders have performed better of late: Burnley, Cardiff, Southampton and Newcastle have all claimed more points in the last six weeks.

One major concern for Fulham is that five of their remaining nine home games this season are against “big six” clubs, so home points will be hard to come by. Partially on that basis, the model has Fulham being relegated in 65.8% of 10,000 simulations, which equates to $1.52 in a 100% market. Even the $1.50 around is worth taking!

HUDDERSFIELD (20th, 10pts)

Eight consecutive losses. The Terriers are well and truly in the doldrums and not showing a great deal to suggest they can get themselves of this deep rut. If they lose to Cardiff next weekend, it could be well and truly over, with games against Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal to come in Feb. Huddersfield join four other clubs in having failed to score in 43% of their league matches, and their first and second half goal differences of -12 are the second worst in the PL in both categories. 

Aaron Mooy’s men are dropping in 83.7% of simulations and the price available suggests this is more than likely now. Not worth taking.

Value bets:

Liverpool to win ($1.60)

Cardiff to be relegated ($1.90)

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