Premier League Monthly Movement: November

Another month is done and dusted as we race towards Christmas Day with a busy seven matchdays (one completed) in December. We’ll soon be taking a historical look into the importance of table positions at Christmas, so keep your eyes peeled for that feature.

What have we learned in November? The top five has not changed since the beginning of the month, but they have raced away from the remainder of the competition: there is now an eight-point gap between Tottenham in fifth (30pts) and Everton/United, who lead the peloton. 

Liverpool look the only legitimate challenger to City at this point, who continue to score heavily.

The fascinating shifts in the table have been at the bottom end, where none of the three clubs in the relegation zone at the beginning of November (Huddersfield, Newcastle, Cardiff) remain in the bottom three. Of those three, Newcastle certainly looked the safest - at least until West Ham came to town and demolished them.

So where does the Stats Insider futures model find value in the Premier League title, top four and relegation markets? Let’s take a look!

For more information on our Premier League Futures, click here.

MANCHESTER CITY (1st, 38pts, steady)

As close to a perfect November as the reigning champions could wish for: an aggregate score of 16-3 across their four matches in November. Still yet to drop a point at home (8-0-0, +25) and with two home games to come in addition to some likely easy trips to Watford and Southampton, there’s little to suggest that they won’t remain on top going into 2019. 

The game at Chelsea this coming weekend will be a beauty. The way they have begun and finished matches is staggering: they are 16-0 across the 0-15 and 76-90 minute periods combined.

They have solidified their favouritism, now a 71.4% chance of winning the title according to the model, up from 59% this time last month. That equates to $1.40 odds in a 100% market (the standard outright winners market should be 110-115%), so the $1.25 on offer is skinny - and perhaps understandably so.

LIVERPOOL (2nd, 36pts, steady)

The Reds remain within two points of the champions as the other undefeated side in the league thanks to that bizarre last-gasp winner against Everton last weekend. They currently hold a record of 0-3-0 against other top four clubs, which is okay, but not a title-winning record. Still, they look the obvious challengers at this stage. 

Home games against the improving Manchester United and Arsenal will be key, while their travel schedule (BUR-BOU-WOL) looks quite comfortable. Now a 20.6% title hope ($4.85), which makes the $5.00 on offer with some books great value. 

CHELSEA (3rd, 31pts, steady)

The 3-1 result at Tottenham was no doubt a slip-up, as was the home draw with Everton, but nonetheless, Chelsea still remain somewhat in touch. Some great opportunities to pick up vital away points against the likes of Watford and Crystal Palace this month, and they’ll need to make a statement at home against Man City. Only three points behind the same stage of their 2016-17 title-winning run.

Starting matches on the road has been a minor concern, with just four first-half away goals to their name, whereas they’ve scored six in the 76-90 minute period. Top four hopes according to the SI model have dropped from 78.5% to 66.7% ($1.50), so the $1.25 price is no good. 

ARSENAL (4th, 30pts, steady)

Announced themselves as genuine top four contenders by running over the top of the Spurs at home last weekend to end an overall fairly successful November, though the draw to Wolves hurt. Certainly playing smoother football than the side that lost their opening two games and, while we won’t find out until the end of the month how they stack up against a top-two club, if they can get the job done at Old Trafford during the midweek round, they’ve got the chance to build some serious momentum into the new year.

They need to start better on the road - each of the other top five clubs possesses positive first-half goal differences in away matches, whereas they do not - though they come home strong with a +7 second-half GD. Their top four prospects have only slightly dropped - from 41.5% to 37.4% ($2.67), so there is currently no value to be found in the $2 top four price. 

TOTTENHAM (5th, 30pts, steady)

Can anyone catch Tottenham at the moment? Amazingly, now the only club in any of Europe’s five major leagues to have not drawn a league game in 2018/19. The loss to Arsenal was a big setback, particularly given they took the lead late in the first half. 

Spurs can expect an easy December ahead of them, with in-form Everton their highest placed opponent, in addition to four games at home. The futures model still sees them as the value bet: they are still winning the league in 3.7% of 10,000 simulations ($27), which makes the 50/1 a good value go. That said, the way they have fared against the other big clubs, it’s a huge ask. 

Look to the top four value: they are still a 79% chance ($1.26) at Champions League football (up from 61% at the beginning of December), which makes the ~1.45 price available outstanding. 

Importantly, they remain eight points off the pace despite a heavily front-loaded travel schedule: 21 points from nine away games puts them in good stead to make a charge over the next couple of months where they play eight of their next 12 at home. If all goes to plan, the value won’t be around in four weeks.

EVERTON (6th, 22pts, up three spots)

Had they held on for just another thirty seconds at Anfield last weekend, they could have capped off a brilliant four weeks with away draws at Chelsea and Liverpool in addition to home wins. Marco Silva’s boys have won five of seven (D1, L1) at home this season, which makes December quite crucial, with three of their next four games at Goodison. 

Their defending has been superb, particularly at home where their six goals conceded is bettered only by City and Liverpool. If they can convert some solid away form into wins at Burnley and Brighton later in the month, they can remain within reach of the top four at the halfway point. 

Currently a 1.5% chance of top four ($67), up from 1% this time last month, this makes the 50/1 price reasonable.

MANCHESTER UNITED (7th, 22pts, up one spot)

Is Mourinho’s third season syndrome waning? The results suggest not: three weeks without a win, including against the struggling Crystal Palace and Southampton. It doesn’t make for pretty reading: they possess the tenth-best home record in the league and have opened the scoring on just five occasions this season.

Difficult clashes against Arsenal and Liverpool come up, and we’ll have a very clear idea by the end of the year just where this squad sits. Despite the poor results, they have moved up the table, thanks to the likes of Watford and Leicester dropping away horribly.

Now a 19.1% chance of top four ($5.20), down from 27% at the start of November, the $7 available is some decent value if you fancy them turning things around. They’ll need to play much better football at some point, but an eight-point gap one-third into the season is nothing to panic about… yet. 

LEICESTER (8th)
BOURNEMOUTH (9th)
WATFORD (10th)
BRIGHTON (11th)
WOLVES (12th)
WEST HAM (13th)

These six clubs all have 5% chance of top four or relegation, and offer no betting value. But at least they're relatively safe from relegation!

CRYSTAL PALACE (14th, 12pts, steady)

Steady in 14th place, Palace remain only one win outside of the relegation zone, thanks to a breakthrough home win against struggling Burnley which snapped an eight-game winless streak. 

December looks a fairly difficult month, with games to come against Man City and Chelsea, as well as a trip to Brighton, although some more opportunities for victories (Cardiff and Leicester at home) present themselves. They badly need to rectify the manner in which they finish games: they currently suffer from a second-half goal difference of -8 (equal third worst in the league).

The model now rates them a 14.8% chance of relegation, slightly up from 13.2% at the start of the month. That equates to $6.75 in a 100% market, so the $10 available is big, big overs.

NEWCASTLE UNITED (15th, 12pts, up four spots)

Boy have the Magpies turned things around! Up to 15th from 19th on the table after opening the season with a ten-game winless run, they suddenly put together three consecutive victories, albeit against three struggling out-of-form oppositions. The Hammers gave them a harsh reality check at St James’ on the weekend, though in a tightly contested relegation battle, they look one of the more likely to climb out of trouble.

Their second halves have improved: while their second-half goal difference still remains at -8 (equal third-worst in the league), it sits at -1 with only the last six weeks included. It has clearly proved crucial to getting 18/19 back on track. Trips to Everton and Liverpool look difficult, but the remainder of their program will provide them with chances for points.

The model still rates them a 17.1% ($5.85) chance of dropping back to the Championship, down slightly from 20% in November. That makes the $5 price fair and without value.

CARDIFF CITY (16th, 11pts, up two spots)

Cardiff have picked up somewhat after a difficult start to the season where they had to face Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Tottenham all in the space of five weeks. They have proved themselves a worthy foe of fellow bottom-half clubs, with home wins against Brighton and Wolves in November to lift them out of the relegation zone - for now.

Four away trips await them in December, and with a record of 0-1-5 (-10) on the road, they will need to seriously lift to remain outside of the bottom three, particularly with Manchester United and possibly even a plucky Southampton at home sprinkled in-between.

The SI model still projects Cardiff finishing bottom three on 72% of simulations ($1.39), although that is slightly down from the previous 78%, so the $1.60 on offer is reasonable value.

HUDDERSFIELD (17th, 10pts, up three spots)

The Terriers found a breakthrough win early in November - and then a second to finish off the month as Aaron Mooy banged home a double at Wolverhampton. They have improved against some struggling oppositions, and look better than the Huddersfield who couldn’t defeat Crystal Palace or Cardiff at home. 

Previously second favourites for relegation (68.3% at the start of November), they are now dropping in “just” 52.2% of simulations ($1.91), so as far as the model is concerned the $1.60 price is not worth taking. 

With trips to Manchester United and Arsenal still to come, it’ll be fascinating to see where they sit at the end of the calendar year as this is now the first point of the season at which they no longer look dead certainties for relegation.

SOUTHAMPTON (18th, 9pts, down two spots)

Just an 8.9% chance of relegation pre-season and 13.5% at the beginning of November, the Saints continue to fall away with just one point in their three November matches. A point against Manchester United was handy (not enough to save Mark Hughes’ job), though it looks as though that reflects more on Mourinho’s men than it does on Southampton. 

They have now failed to win ten consecutive matches in their worst start to a Premier League season this decade and are the only side not to have won at home this season. It could only get worse, with Arsenal, West Ham and Man City to come to town this month, in addition to a trip to Tottenham this mid-week round (where they have lost five of their last six visits). 

Of particular concern would be a second-half goal difference of -5 at home as well as a first-half GD of -9 on the road, so there are problems aplenty for Southampton’s next manager. 

The model now projects them as a 24.2% chance of relegation ($4.13), making the $4 on offer a fair price.

BURNLEY (19th, 9pts, down four spots)

The biggest losers in November (15th to 19th) after extending their winless run to seven (D2, L5) with a loss at Crystal Palace. Two consecutive wins in September suggested that the Europa League burden was responsible for their poor start to the league season, though they have no excuses now for this horrible streak.

They suffer from the worst home record in the Premier League (1-1-4) and an overall second-half goal difference of -12 (second-worst in the league) and have opened the scoring on just three occasions this season. 

Considered a 13% chance of relegation pre-season (which rose to 28.8% at the beginning of November), Burnley are now falling to the Championship in 45.5% of simulations ($2.20), so the $1.45 favouritism is huge unders.

FULHAM (20th, 8pts, down three spots)

With a home win to struggling Southampton sprinkled in amongst eight losses, Fulham are undoubtedly the most out-of-form team in the comp, particularly given the calibre of opposition they have lost to of late (Huddersfield, Cardiff etc). Yes, they have had to travel to Chelsea and Liverpool in their last three weeks, but to fail to take any other points elsewhere through Oct-Nov has proven to be the difference between rock bottom and a mid-table position. 

A staggering 20 second-half goals conceded - including 12 in eight away trips - is of particular concern, as is conceding the first half goal of the game on 11 occasions this season.

They are now second favourites for relegation according to SI simulations, although down to 56% (from 64%), likely based on the fact they have already got their away trips to five of the top six clubs out of the way already. 

Value Bets: 

Liverpool to win ($5)

Tottenham top four finish ($1.45)

Manchester United top four finish ($7)

Crystal Palace relegation ($10) 

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