Premier League Preview: Week 16
Last updated: Dec 7, 2018, 4:14AM | Published: Dec 7, 2018, 3:22AM.jpg?w=750)
Punting on weekend rounds immediately following midweek matchdays can sometimes be a difficult game, but that's where the advantage of a machine can come into play. What value has the Stats Insider model found for Round 16 of the Premier League?
In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.
For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.
When: Sunday 9 Dec, 2:00am EDT
The Market: Fulham to win / double chance
Let’s be clear here: this is not a straight-out tip for Fulham to knock off the Reds at Old Trafford. The burning question is this: which Manchester United will turn up on Saturday afternoon? The one who played not only their best football of 2018/19, but perhaps even longer, against Arsenal mid-week? Or the United who failed to get a win at home against the likes of Wolves and Crystal Palace earlier in the season?
The SI model tends to find that the popular sides such as the Manchesters and Liverpool can be overrated by the market and this one is no exception. Fulham are winning this encounter in 15% of 10,000 simulations, whereas the current market price suggests they are a 9-10% probability.
Fulham have not won at Old Trafford since 03/04 (D1, L9), though they are now playing more confident football since securing their second victory of the season.
Bettors would understandably feel uncomfortable backing Fulham, so that’s where the double chance market comes into play. While the model doesn’t run probabilities on double chance markets, we can use the information to determine value with other betting types. The model has a Fulham victory or draw in 35-36% of simulations, whereas the bookmakers’ price of ~3.40 suggests they consider it in the low 30s once you factor in their margin.
When: Sunday 9 Dec, 4:30am EDT
The Market: Chelsea to win / double chance
Match of the round! Chelsea return to more comfortable surroundings where they need to make a big, big statement if they are to remain in contention for the title. Still the fifth-best travelling side in the league after back to back losses on the road, expect them to lift back at Stamford Bridge where they boast a 5-3-0 home record. The likes of Giroud, Jorginho and Luiz, who were all rested midweek, will return.
Manchester City also dropped points away against Wolves earlier in the season, in addition to that 0-0 draw with Liverpool which provided more questions than answers. Neither side are yet to be trailing at half-time this season so who knows what kind of start this game will bring.
With the market price suggesting a 24% probability of Chelsea taking this out, the SI model has identified a 5% edge in their favour, with the hosts winning in 29% of simulations. Sergio Aguero is a big doubt at the time of writing, so Chelsea’s price could shorten if/when he is a confirmed out.
The H2H history points towards Man City: they have won the last three clashes for an aggregate score of 4-0, including two away, while Pep Guardiola has a 3-0-0 record over Maurizio Sarri. The value lies with the hosts to snap that run.
When: Monday 10 Dec, 3:00am EDT
The Market: Wolves to win / Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES
The value game of the round for subscribers - three orange smileys to chew into!
Wolves, high on confidence after knocking off a second-string Chelsea at home during the week, travel to a Newcastle side who suffered a demoralising thrashing at home against West Ham last weekend, abruptly halting a run that looked to have turned their season around. A draw at Everton was a good result, so they’ll be in reasonable nick.
The SI model currently has Wolves winning 41% of 10,000 simulations based on projected lineups (including the return of Ruben Neves from suspension for Wolves and Matt Ritchie for Newcastle) whereas the bookmakers have them only as the narrowest of favourites. Wolves have visited Newcastle just once in the last five years in league football, winning 2-0 in the 2016/17 Championship season.
With three of Newcastle’s last four games going over 2.5 total goals and three of Wolverhampton’s last five also over 2.5, it’s encouraging to see a massive 7% edge in favour of over 2.5 goals (47% of simulations compared with a market price closer to a 40% probability).
Both teams have scored in four of Wolves’ last five PL games and in three of Newcastle’s last four, so once again the stats stack up in favour of the 4% edge for both teams to score here. This game could be a big fill-up for subscribers.
When: Tuesday 11 Dec, 7:00am EDT
The Market: Over 2.5 goals
Some Tuesday value for the SI faithful as the Toffees host the Hornets in the Monday night game. Four of the last five H2H meetings at Goodison dating back to the year 2000 have produced over 2.5 total goals and the SI model fancies this trend to continue, with 55% of 10,000 simulations resulting in game totals of 3+. The bookmakers’ odds suggest a 50/50 probability, so you’re getting a good 5% edge in favour of the overs (and who doesn’t love backing goals?)
Bernard should return to left midfield which means Richarlison can shift back into his much preferred CF/ST position. For Watford, Will Hughes is in doubt in addition to the suspended Capoue, meaning that Watford’s midfield could be decimated.
Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.
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