Premier League Preview: Week 17

What a superb week for SI Premium subscribers last weekend! From a total of six free plays offered in our EPL preview last weekend, five saluted - including three out of three in the Newcastle-Wolves game. What a ‘same game multi’ that would have been! Let’s keep it going...

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Manchester City vs Everton

When: Sat 15 Dec 11:30pm EDT

The Market: Both Teams to Score - YES

Everton are first up on the Saturday afternoon program on the quick backup from a Monday night at home to Watford. That might be a handy coincidence given their form of late: were they not denied at the death by Divock Origi a fortnight ago, they’d be on a six-game unbeaten run and less than ten points outside of the top four.

Early defending has been their key, conceding only two first-half goals and not losing at half-time (W1, D5) since their away defeat to United. 

Man City showed a rare glimpse of vulnerability at Chelsea last week, but return home where they have a perfect record and a staggering goal difference of +25 in just eight games, however, they have conceded in five of them. 

Can Everton become the sixth club to find the back of the net at the Etihad this season? The SI model believes they can, with 57% of 10,000 simulations producing a result with both teams scoring - currently a 5% edge on the market which suggests a 52-48 probability. Both teams have scored in five of the last seven league/cup meetings between these two sides, so back the trend to continue at a good price.

Tottenham vs Burnley

When: Sun 16 Dec 2:00am EDT

The Market: Both Teams to Score - YES

Tottenham have put together back-to-back victories and remain as the only side in any of Europe’s five major leagues to have not drawn a league game this season! With a W10, D0, L1 record against clubs currently outside the top six, they are warm favourites against a Burnley outfit who managed to snap a seven-game winless streak at home to Brighton. 

With Tottenham scoring in all but one PL game this season (v Man City) and conceding in five of their last seven, the stats lean towards both teams finding the net here, particularly as Burnley managed to score against Liverpool two matchdays back.

While the edge falls narrowly outside of one of SI’s famous orange smiley faces (“we like it a bit”), there’s still a 4% advantage to be snapped up if you fancy. 49% of 10,000 simulations see both teams scoring in this one, whereas the average market price suggests closer to 45%. 

Both teams have scored in eight of the last 12 league/cup clashes between Spurs and Burnley, so similar to our first free match, you have history on your side as well as a bit of value. 

Brighton vs Chelsea

When: Mon 17 Dec 12:30am EDT

The Market: Over 2.5 goals (5%) / Both Teams to Score - YES (5%)

A two-pronged attack for subscribers here as Brighton look to secure their first points against Chelsea in over half a century! Chelsea have won all eight competitive H2H fixtures since their drawn inaugural meeting in 1966/67. The model finds no value in the three-way head-to-head market, but we have two orange smileys to pick at in the total goals and ‘both to score’ markets.

Brighton have not scored in their last five clashes with Chelsea. While Chelsea is a different kettle of fish, it’s worth noting that Brighton have scored in every PL home game this season (a total of 12 goals in seven), including against Manchester United and Tottenham earlier in the season. With four of their last six overall totalling over 2.5 goals, and all but one of Chelsea’s last eight away games also going overs, the stats are in your favour either way you go.

A solid 58% of 10,000 SI simulations are currently producing over 2.5 total goals, while both teams are scoring in 52%. You’re getting a 5% edge in both plays, with the average market prices suggesting 53% and 47% respectively.

Southampton vs Arsenal

When: Mon 17 Dec 12:30am EDT

The Market: Southampton to win OR double chance

Southampton are looking to convert three consecutive home draws into their first win since the first week of September, but frankly would be satisfied with another home draw here. 

Perhaps surprisingly, they hold an impressive recent record against the Gunners: they have taken a positive result from a majority of their last 11 league/cup meetings (W4, D2, L5) with Arsenal going back to the start of 2014/15! However, the Gunners are unbeaten in six on the road (W4, D2) with hauls of two or more goals in all seven away games this season.

The model has come up with Southampton winning a stunning 32% of 10,000 simulations against Arsenal, with the average market price suggesting a probability of around 26%. 

As always, there are several ways to use this information. If you’re feeling risky, take the best value and back Southampton to win. If a bookie underrates a side in the H2H market, the likelihood is that there’ll also be some kind of edge (albeit not as large) on the double chance markets. Or, if you can’t stomach the thought of backing the Saints, take the warning that Arsenal are grossly underpriced according to the SI model.

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge? 

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