Premier League Preview: Week 18

The EPL model is on fire! Four out of five free plays getting up last week in addition to five from six in Round 16 (including Southampton to win at $4.40!) makes for some great reading and a very merry Christmas. No coal for Stats Insider’s data crunchers this year!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Wolves v Liverpool

When: Sat Dec 22, 7:00am EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES

The Friday night game sees the in-form Wolves host the only remaining unbeaten club in the league in potentially the fixture of the round. The hosts will have to make do without Diogo Jota, but the promising return of Jonny in left-mid last week means he could push forward and be a crucial part of counter-attacks. 

Given that Wolves have scored at home in all but two of their games at home last year and have scored against every other remaining club in the top six, one must fancy them to find the back of the net against a Reds side who have conceded in five of their nine away trips this season.

No worries for Liverpool yet - they have scored 3+ in their last three on the road in addition to clean sheets in their last three trips to Wolverhampton. 

The SI model has both teams scoring in 54% of its 10,000 simulations - a 5% edge on the market which currently has it at near enough to a coin toss. The model and the stats are both on your side here: Wolves are running rampant, having knocked off Chelsea at home earlier in the month, and will be flying high and full of running. This could be the play of the round. 

Huddersfield v Southampton

When: Sun Dec 23, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 / Both Teams to Score - YES

Double trouble with a two-pronged value play! Just when things looked to have turned around for Mooy’s Terriers, it all fell to pieces again, with home losses to Brighton and Newcastle particularly painful. No clean sheets and just two goals in four weeks. Can they pick up the pieces against a Southampton who picked up their first win under Ralph Hasenhuttl?

It’s hard to tell. The two sides have met just twice - last season - in 35 years of league football. The game at Huddersfield finished 0-0. If Danny Ings continues his good form, Southampton may follow it up with their first points on the road since a draw at Bournemouth nine weeks back. They have managed four goals on the road since, scoring at the likes of Man City and Tottenham.

Whilst still the less likely outcome, the SI model is finding a significant edge in favour of the over 2.5, with 47% of simulations producing over 2.5 total goals (whereas the odds suggest something closer to 41%).

Perhaps the more appealing play is for both teams to score, which has happened in two of Huddersfield’s last three home games and in all but one of Southampton’s last seven PL fixtures.

Chelsea v Leicester City

When: Sun Dec 23, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 / Both Teams to Score - YES

Another double value play game, and you want to be backing goals here! The model finds value in goals and more goals. Chelsea have bounced back from a shock loss to Wolves with consecutive wins including handing Man City their first and only defeat of the season. They have now scored two or more in seven of their last ten matches, with seven of those producing totals of over 2.5. 

Clean sheets in their last three home games is the big query over the model’s value plays here, though the H2H history is encouraging: five of the last seven PL meetings between these two sides have seen three or more goals scored, with both teams getting on the scoresheet in four. 

If you fancy either or both of these trends to continue, the edges are on your sides: a staggering 61% of SI simulations are spitting up results with over 2.5 goals (market suggests 57% likelihood) and the model also sees both teams scoring in 52% of matches, whereas the favouritism currently lies with the ‘no’ (about 52-53%). 

Cardiff City v Manchester United

When: Sun Dec 23, 4:30am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5

How will Manchester United respond to the not-so-shocking dismissal of Jose Mourinho during the week? Next month we’ll be taking a look at the stats behind the debuts of caretaker managers - the general vibe is that clubs go well immediately after the sacking of a head coach. 

Solskjaer’s men travel to Cardiff for only the second time in 40 years - their only other visit was a 2-2 draw in 2013/14. Cardiff were relegated in that season and looked in serious trouble two months ago, but have since won four of five at home, including against Wolves.

Given the change of management, playing the H2H market seems a bit risky. Much rather turn to the orange smiley on the over 2.5 play, where 58% of 10,000 simulations are coming up with three or more goals - a 5% edge on the average market price.  

Worth noting that Manchester United have kept only one clean sheet on the road this season (at Burnley), conceding 2+ goals on six occasions albeit against better sides than Cardiff. They’ll have a lot to prove here, and will certainly be a great test for the ‘gulls. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

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READ: What is the Edge?

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