Premier League Preview: Week 19

Not quite up there with the colossal results we have been experiencing throughout December, but 3/6 in last week’s EPL preview could potentially equal another successful round of punting, depending on how you chose to play it. Let’s continue the momentum throughout a big Boxing Day!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Crystal Palace v Cardiff

When: Thu 27 Dec 2:00am EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score - NO

We open our preview of free EPL plays with one of the 3pm matches, where the high-flying Crystal Palace are in a great place to lift themselves further away from the relegation zone after back-to-back wins for the first time this season. Boy do they love to mess with title races!

As one of just six clubs to have more wins on the road than at home, we would usually say that backing them at home lately would be a risky proposition… but Cardiff have just one point to their name in eight PL away trips, and it was against fellow battlers Huddersfield.

Nonetheless, the SI model has provided us with a tasty double play outside of the head-to-head market! The 10,000 simulations currently see 55% of matches producing under 2.5 goals (with the overs the narrowest of favourites across most books), and both teams scoring in just 46% of simulations (which is also a slight favourite). That means two orange smileys for a low-scoring game. 

It’s worth noting that seven of Cardiff’s away matches have been against teams currently in the top 12 (at time of writing), meaning they have had a tough start to the season as far as travelling goes. So a better performance against a team of poor consistency such as Crystal Palace would not surprise.

With Cardiff having scored in their last five, and three of Palace’s four going over 2.5, the value is against the trend here. 

Brighton v Arsenal

When: Thu 27 Dec 4:15am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score - YES

Arsenal are another one of the main title challengers who are occasionally slipping up throughout the season - see the loss at Southampton and draw at Crystal Palace - and may be in for another interesting fight at Brighton. 

Given that Brighton took out their home fixture 2-1 against Arsenal last season, they’re not without a chance here - though they would want to be in better form. Worth noting that they have taken points from just one clash against a top-eight (at time of writing) side - that 3-2 win over United when Mourinho’s side was in an early season rut. 

With no value for either side in the WDW market, we’re certainly going to be attacking the two orange smileys on our other main football markets: the model currently finds 8% edges both in favour of the over 2.5 and the ‘Both Teams to Score’ (yes) plays. Arsenal have put 2+ on the board in all of their last eight PL away trips this season, securing wins in four of them (D2 L2). 

The ‘gulls themselves have scored in every game at home, with the likes of even the well-travelling Chelsea and Tottenham failing to keep a clean sheet in their visits. We can expect Arsenal to attack this game hard, wanting to build some good momentum ahead of a massive trip to Liverpool on the weekend. 

Watford v Chelsea

When: Thu 27 Dec 6:30am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

The Hornets are building some momentum after knocking off the in-form Hammers after a home win against Cardiff and are going to be a plucky customer for Chelsea to handle on one of the more fascinating matches of the Boxing Day program. 

Expect Chelsea to come out firing though after their embarrassing loss to Leicester, particularly now that they are lamenting a double-figure gap between themselves and league leaders Liverpool. The room for error is closing quickly. 

All the form here points to goals and more goals: Watford’s last eight at home have gone over 2.5, as have eight of their last nine at Chelsea (all comps), as have eight of Chelsea’s last nine home games. Watford have scored 2+ in their last three in the PL, their last three against Chelsea (all comps), and have conceded 2+ in five of their last six PL games at Vicarage. Wow!

Given that the SI model finds a 5% advantage in favour of the overs - with 59% of 10,000 simulations producing results over 2.5 goals - this looks like one of the strongest plays in a long time!

Southampton v West Ham

When: Fri 28 Dec 6:45am EDT

The Play: Southampton to win

Southampton continue to suffer from their worst start to a PL season this decade but are bouncing back after consecutive wins under new manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, having scored in seven of their last eight league matches. They have avoided the bottom three at Christmas, but as our Stats Buster article shows, it’s no occasion to become complacent!

West Ham have won just one of their last eight trips to Southampton (D4 L3) and will be most vulnerable in the final 15 minutes of the game, carrying the league’s third-worst 76-90min goal difference of -6 into this fixture. Given that Charlie Austin pinched three points against Arsenal only a fortnight back, watch for more late action here, especially from Danny Ings who has four in his last four games!

The Hammers’ four-game winning streak was snapped by Watford, with all four of those victims currently in the bottom half of the table, so they’ll be right up for this one. 

If you fancy the hosts to continue building mid-season momentum, you have the SI model’s blessing: the Saints are currently winning 47% of 10,000 simulations, with the market price suggesting a probability closer to 42%. That makes for a 5% edge - an orange smiley!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?

READ: What is the Edge?

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!