Premier League Preview: Week 20

Some good momentum built up through December is set to continue with some more EPL double plays for loyal subscribers!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Brighton v Everton

When: Sun 30 Dec 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals 

Brighton are searching desperately for their first win in five weeks, hurting from the fact that the American Express is no longer a fortress (W4 D3 L2). They have an opportunity against an Everton side who have travelled poorly this season, with their 5-1 thumping of Burnley just their second away victory this season. An eight goal turnaround in one game! 

Given the number of goals in Everton's most recent fixtures (22 in the last four!) and that 56% of Brighton's home games have produced over 2.5 goals (22% have had over 2.5 in the first half!), it's encouraging to see some value in favour of a high-scoring game. 

Richarlison just can't stop scoring - even after being shifted to the bench on Boxing Day - and probably starts here. He bagged a double in the reverse fixture against Brighton earlier this season. Expect him to be right amongst it here.

As mentioned, Everton's last four PL matches have gone over 2.5 goals and the value is with that to continue to five. Subscribers can currently snap up a 4% edge in favour of over 2.5 goals, with 53% of 10,000 simulations going that way. 

Tottenham v Wolves

When: Sun 30 Dec 2:00am EDT

The Play: Wolves to win / Both to Score YES 

It might be the lillywhite blood in me, but our title winner value play at the start of the season is flying under the radar and going along very nicely despite some hiccups against City and Arsenal. Still the only side in Europe's major leagues to have not drawn a game, they also have the advantage of a couple of extra home games in hand.

As expected, the bookies have kept them quite safe - perhaps too safe - against a Wolves side which can only be described as a banana peel for many title aspirants. In addition to knocking off Chelsea at home, they have secured draws against City (home) and against Arsenal and United on the road in the first half of the season. Only a little more consistency and they would be seriously challenging for fifth place.

With Wolves winning 16% of 10,000 simulations, the model has identified a 6% edge on the current market which suggests a likelihood closer to 10%. I much prefer the other orange smiley for both teams to score: Spurs have scored 2+ in six of their last seven PL matches, Wolves have scored in seven of their last nine, and the two sides played out a 3-2 thriller in the reverse fixture.

Fulham v Huddersfield

When: Sun 30 Dec 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score YES 

The first of the two high-value double plays and one for those who love to back the goals. Fulham snuck off the bottom of the table but are looking for their first win in seven weeks. They've got a fantastic chance here against Huddersfield who are also winless in six matches, though Fulham have shown at least some promise with consecutive draws against clubs likely to avoid relegation.

Fulham are W4 D1 in their last five at home against Huddersfield going back to the year 2000 and are better placed here. That said, Huddersfield took out the reverse fixture 1-0. 

Expect both sides to attack this match hard - it is a rare opportunity for two teams desperate to escape the bottom three. Five of Fulham's last six matches have gone under 2.5 goals, but the model finds significant value in bucking the trend: a 6% edge in favour of over 2.5 goals, and a 5% edge for both teams to score (the 'no' is currently the favourite but both teams are scoring in 52% of simulations). 

Prefer the BTS play - both teams have scored in six of Huddersfield's nine away trips and six of Fulham's nine at home.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea

When: Sun 30 Dec 11:00pm EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score YES

The final of our free plays sees the model anticipating a high-scoring fixture as Crystal Palace - who, like Wolves and Leicester, continue to mess things up for contenders such as Arsenal and Manchester City.

Chelsea bounced back from a shock loss to the Foxes with an away win at Watford and are searching for a run of two or more wins for just the fourth time this season. Palace now sit a somewhat comfortable seven points above the relegation zone after three consecutive clean sheets at home, but will be in for a tough day here.

Nine of Crystal Palace's last ten home PL games have produced under 2.5 total goals, while Chelsea's last six away have all gone overs. Which way do you lean?! According to the SI model, there is value in the overs (+5%) and in both teams scoring (+5%), with 58% of 10,000 simulations seeing both teams scoring and 58% going over 2.5 total goals.

The last four meetings between these two sides have all fallen over 2.5, with both teams scoring in all four.

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

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