Premier League Preview: Week 21

Were you on Wolves to beat Spurs like we were? If not, you need to #TrustTheModel! Let's be honest: is there a better way of kicking off the new year with some high-value EPL winners? Of course not!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Everton v Leicester

When: Tue 1 Jan 11:30pm EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Everton v Leicester: a typically high-scoring contest, and with some minor value to be found in that trend continuing, this could be a potentially lucrative play. Should be an interesting start to the New Year's Day program.

The model currently finds a 3% edge in favour of over 2.5 goals being scored, with 50% of 10,000 simulations falling into the overs. That makes the ~1.95-2.00 currently available a handy price. As it is not an orange smiley on the SI scale at 3%, I have recommended a half-stake here; but, as always, we encourage you to set your own stakes and use our information alongside your own opinions.

Granted, Leicester have been involved in plenty of low-scoring thrillers lately (ten of their last 11 have been under 2.5), but the last nine meetings between these two sides (cup/league) have all seen over 2.5 goals scored, and Everton have put 2+ past the Foxes in eight of their last nine at home! With both teams scoring in all but one of Everton's last six and Leicester keeping just two clean sheets in their last eight, this looks like it's going overs.

If you fancy Everton to get the job done at home, back them HT/FT: Leicester have scored just two first-half goals on the road and have conceded eight. 

Cardiff v Tottenham

When: Wed 2 Jan 4:30am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES

The SI model had value for Tottenham to slip up against Wolves last week and sure enough, it came good! There looks to be no such vulnerability though for this Tuesday evening fixture in Wales. Spurs have won three on the trot since Cardiff returned to the top flight, all 1-0 victories. 

Spurs now join five other clubs as averaging more points on the road than at home, having won seven of their last eight away (the exception that 4-2 demolition at the hands of Arsenal).  

Expect them to come out firing from the start, with a league-leading first-half goal difference (GD) of +11 on the road. Cardiff, meanwhile, are one of just four PL clubs to have a negative GD at home across both halves.

The minor value here lies with both teams to find the back of the net: currently a 3% edge, so not worthy of the official SI seal of approval, but one that in my opinion is worth taking. Cardiff have scored in seven of their ten at home this season, including against Arsenal and Manchester United, while Spurs have found the scoresheet in all 11 on the road but have kept clean sheets in just five. 

Chelsea v Southampton

When: Thu 3 Jan 6:45am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES

Chelsea face another plucky opponent who took points from 'big six' clubs twice in December and they'll be eager not to repeat their slip-ups against Leicester and Wolves here.

They have a W4 D0 L0 record against bottom ten clubs and, with seven consecutive competitive victories against Southampton under their belt, really shouldn't be dropping any points here. 

Chelsea will get their best opportunities in the first half, where Southampton currently have the equal-worst first half goal difference (away matches only) of -8. Combine that with Chelsea's ten goals in the 61-90+min period at Stamford Bridge (goal difference +8) and there's little reason to suggest they'll hold back here. 

The SI model has produced an orange smiley for the "both teams to score" market here, with Chelsea and Southampton finding the back of the net in 54% of 10,000 simulations, whereas the early markets currently have the 'no' option as favourite.

Both teams have scored in nine of Southampton's last ten league matches, with seven of their last eight also going over 2.5 total. Given they managed to score against City in both fixtures, as well as multiple goals in their home matches against Arsenal and Manchester United, this looks a good value play to take. 

Wolves v Crystal Palace

When: Thu 3 Jan 6:45am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Honestly, who can catch Wolves this season?! Knocking off Spurs and Chelsea, drawing with Arsenal, but also losing to Huddersfield and Cardiff City all in the space of five calendar weeks.

According to the SI model, we can currently find a 4% edge in favour of over 2.5 total goals for this fixture, with 47% of 10,000 simulations falling that way. So while still the least likely of the two outcomes, that suggests the ~2.20 currently available is quite appealing to bargain hunters.

With just 40 goals scored between them this season, it's not particularly easy to see this one going that way. But when someone like yours truly isn't keen on taking the value, that likely means you can't afford to miss out...

Crystal Palace's last three away games have seen 4+ goals scored and 60% of their away games over 2.5, while only 30% of Wolves' home games have produced over 2.5 total goals. 

These two sides have met just once since 2013 - in the reverse fixture where Wolves triumphed 1-0 before three consecutive losses. The stats aren't entirely on your side here, but the value seems to be!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!