Premier League Preview: Week 22

Liverpool visit Brighton's fortress, Man City tackle one of the EPL's banana peels in Wolves, plus Spurs against a (somewhat) high-flying Man United... that's just the beginning of a bumper weekend of English football!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

West Ham v Arsenal

When: Sat 12 Jan 11:30pm EDT

The Play: Arsenal to win

Given that West Ham haven't beaten Arsenal at home since 2006/07 in League or Cup football - for three draws and seven defeats - I was rapt to see the model find a 3-4% edge in favour of the Gunners who are really ramping up the intensity since their humiliation at Anfield. 

West Ham have taken points from three of their last four at home (W2 D1), though they haven't been particularly tested of late. They have a 1-1-4 record at home against clubs above them on the table going into this round - 0-0 against Chelsea in September followed by 3-1 against Mourinho's (at the time) lowly United side - so a side of Arsenal's stature should be too difficult to manage here.

The Hammers' best opportunities should come early in the piece, with Arsenal currently lamenting a -5 first half goal difference (GD) in away contests, and coming home strong with 13 goals to seven conceded after half-time. West Ham have opened the scoring four times but led at half-time just twice from 11 home games, so they'll need to buck the trend here.

No official Stats Insider seal of approval (smiley face) at this point, but certainly a match page worth keeping an eye on closer to kickoff, and one that I am keen to play. Watch the news closely - if Marko Arnautovic fails a late week fitness start, expect any value to be gobbled up immediately. 

For what it's worth, nine of Arsenal's last ten away, and five of West Ham's last six at home have all seen over 2.5 total goals scored.

Cardiff v Huddersfield

When: Sun 13 Jan 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Cardiff City were eliminated from the FA Cup last weekend and if there is one opposition they can bounce back against as they look to stave off relegation, it's a hopelessly out-of-depth Huddersfield Town.

Huddersfield would likely be thinking the same - viewing Cardiff as a realistic opportunity for their first points since November - particularly as Cardiff are one of the four bottom-half clubs (going into this round) that the Terriers have found a result against.

They are one of eight Premier League clubs to be averaging more points per game away than at home, though that could be more a reflection on their home performances than their travelling. Still, with away draws under their belt at Everton and Burnley this season, who knows.

The 10,000 Stats Insider match simulations are producing a 4% edge in favour of the overs here, with 42% seeing three or more total goals scored. So while still not the most likely of the two outcomes, it makes $2.50 a value market to have a nibble at. 

Eight of Cardiff's last ten home games have gone overs, while they have also scored at least two in all but one of their last six home games against Huddersfield in all competitions. 

Expecting this to be an all-out contest between two struggling sides looking for salvation.

Chelsea v Newcastle

When: Sun 13 Jan 4:30am EDT

The Play: Newcastle to win / Both Teams to Score

We love a double play here at Stats Insider, not least when they both salute! Anyone fancy Newcastle to pull off a huge upset? If you do, you've got the model's value identifier on your side. United haven't won at Stamford Bridge since 2012 (L6 in all comps), so you'd be playing against the trends. Not to mention Newcastle are suffering from their equal-worst Premier League season this decade. 

Rafa Benitez's men are currently winning 11% of Stats Insider simulations with a WDW price that suggests about a 7% chance. As always, that means there is also likely to be some value in favour of Newcastle in the 'double chance' and 'draw no bet' markets, though bookmaker margins eat up a portion of it. 

If backing Newcastle - who have beaten only Huddersfield in eight matches since the start of December - is not your cup of tea, that's understandable. I too prefer the other orange smiley available on this match page, Both Teams to Score. Newcastle have scored against all of the "big six" clubs except Liverpool, including 2-1 and 3-2 losses at Manchester City and United respectively.

This game is likely to be decided after half-time, where Newcastle currently suffer from a second-half goal difference of -7 in League away games (equal third worst in the league), including just one goal scored. 

Chelsea have failed to score in three of their 11 home games this season which is somewhat of a red flag, but I'm going to #TrustTheModel here!

Manchester City v Wolverhampton

When: Tue 15 Jan 7:00am EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score 

Haven't Wolves proven themselves to be a massive pain in the neck for title aspirants this season?! After knocking off a second-string Liverpool (who likely still fancied themselves to get the job done) in the FA Cup, the men in orange will now throw everything at a Manchester City outfit who couldn't defeat them at the Molineux in August. 

I've heard Wolves described this season as the "Robin Hood" of the EPL: taking points from Tottenham and Chelsea and giving them to Huddersfield and Cardiff. Thus it's difficult currently to attack any match involving them H2H, and we look elsewhere on this occasion.

The Stats Insider model is currently finding a 5% edge in favour of both teams scoring here, with $2.00 available for what we consider to be the more likely outcome. Like Newcastle, Wolves have scored in clashes with all "big six" clubs except Liverpool, including against Chelsea, who have conceded fewer goals than Man City this season. 

With both teams scoring in City's last five Premier Leaague games (and in seven of their last eight) and in 60% of Wolves' away games this season, the stats are on your side here as well as the value. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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