Premier League Preview: Week 23

Not the model's finest week last week, truth be told, but a rare blip in a long line of successful weeks throughout this EPL season, so there's no better time to bounce back than before another FA Cup weekend! 

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

When: Sun 20 Jan 02:00AM EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES

Can Crystal Palace be the first team to finally knock off Liverpool at home as they were against Man City at the Etihad? The model thinks not, with the Reds winning nearly four out of five simulations. They're undefeated now in their last 31 PL matches at home! However, we do believe there is value in the Eagles finding the scoresheet, as they have done all but two PL away trips this season - scoring everywhere they have visited in 2018/10 except Old Trafford and Goodison Park. 

Liverpool have conceded in three of their last six at home, albeit all in comfortable victories (4-1, 3-1, 5-1), while Crystal Palace have scored two or more in their last three away matches. It's not the result we are interested in here, however: of 10,000 simulations of this match, both teams are scoring in 48.4%, which makes the current price of 2.15 available at the TAB well worth a nibble. It's currently worthy of an orange smiley on our value scale. 

Liverpool will be missing Alexander-Arnold and Wijnaldum, and we expect James Milner could slot into right back with Joel Matip starting - that leaves the Reds very vulnerable (by their standards) to conceding this weekend, particularly with Jordan Ayew finding some goalscoring form in January. 

Manchester United v Brighton

When: Sun 20 Jan 02:00AM EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES

Both teams have scored in 80% of Manchester United's PL home games this season, so when the model also identifies value in favour of the 'yes', it's always worth consideration. Both sides could very well name unchanged lineups here.

We all remember (fondly or with an ill feeling in the stomach) Mourinho's United capitulating 3-2 at Brighton early in the season -  a loss from which the club never truly recovered until his dismissal. While they have since turned it around under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (who has notched up a club record 6-0 run to begin his career), the Red Devils have still conceded to Cardiff, Huddersfield and Bournemouth under their new gaffer, and have 11 second-half saves from David de Gea to thank for a clean sheet at Tottenham.

Brighton have travelled horrendously throughout 2018/19 (W2 D2 L7) but have still managed to score in six of their last ten PL away trips, including at top-half clubs West Ham and Everton. 

As seen on 'The Edge', our model predicts both teams scoring in 50.8% of the 10,000 simulations based on predicted lineups. That's about a 5-6% edge as long as the price of 2.10 remains available. 

Huddersfield v Manchester City

When: Mon 21 Jan 00:30AM EDT

The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES

Rock-bottom Huddersfield, also the league's worst performing home club (W1 D2 L8), have it all to do against a Manchester City who continue to march on their way back towards the top after a home defeat of Liverpool at the beginning of the month. 

City have not lost an away trip to any club in the bottom-half of the table going into the round (with a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton the worst result) and we don't expect them to do so here. However, a third "both teams to score" value play presents itself for subscribers after the Terriers have found themselves on the scoresheet in eight of their last 12 league games. 

Huddersfield, meanwhile, have their first game under interim manager Mark Hudson as they search desperately for a way out of the relegation zone. What's that they say about clubs immediately bouncing back after a coach is sacked? City have found their last two trips to Huddersfield astoundingly tricky (a 0-0 FA Cup draw and a 2-1 result with a late winner) and they slipped up at Leicester and Chelsea last month. 

Granted, both teams scoring is not the most likely of the outcomes predicted by anyone including the model, with just 44.9% of simulations producing results with clean sheets for neither side. However, it is the belief of the model that $2.40 for the 'yes' is a price worthy of an orange smiley, so this is definitely one for our bargain hunters out there. 

Fulham v Tottenham

When: Mon 21 Jan 03:00AM EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Sick of "both teams to score" plays? You never could be if they keep winning, but we change it up here with another value play for those who love to back the goals. The best travelling side going into the round (W10 L2), Spurs look to continue a four-game winning streak at Fulham dating back to 2010. 

Fulham's last four PL home games have fallen under 2.5, but we expect that to change here thanks to a visiting Tottenham who have piled up 11 goals in their last three away trips and have scored two or more in all but one of their six on the road this season. 

Spurs have a staggering 17 first-half goals away from home for a +14 goal difference, which looks ominous for a Fulham side who have conceded nine first-half goals in ten matches at home (only Huddersfield and Burnley have shipped more). 

The only concern here is that Harry Kane picked up a long-term injury against Manchester United which leaves him out for this fixture and many more, however it's worth noting he was responsible for only six of their last 20 league goals - their attacking options are dynamic and vast. 

With the prices practically a flip of the coin (as seen on the TAB website below), and the SI model producing totals over 54.8% of 10,000 simulations, that's an edge worthy of an orange smiley on the EPL scale. 

Good luck this week!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is The Edge?

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