Premier League Preview: Week 24

If you live on the east coast, surely you love EPL midweek rounds! The only thing that can make 7am starts better is finding a few winners at over-the-odds. That's where we step in. Your free Week 24 plays are here!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our Premier League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Newcastle United v Manchester City

When: Wednesday 30 Jan 7:00am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES

Manchester City finally found their first clean sheet since November with a 3-0 win against Wolves, and then backed it up with another at Huddersfield. The odds suggest there is some value to be found in Newcastle United snapping this run in our first free midweek game. 

Rafa Benitez was not so proud to admit after their FA Cup defeat to Watford that his squad are not strong enough to manage both a cup run and a survival battle, and despite naming a fairly strong XI for the fourth round loss, they just didn't look themselves. This club have scored in six of eight clashes against the "big six" of the PL and you're getting $2.05 for them to do it again (assuming City add to their 2.7 goals per game, of course). 

Both teams have scored in four of the last meetings between these two sides, however six of City's ten clean sheets this season have been away from home. 

Whereas the odds offered by our good friends at the TAB suggest about a 45% likelihood of both teams scoring, the Stats Insider model has 50.4% of our 10,000 simulations coming up trumps. No sure thing, by any means, but $2.05 for what is essentially considered a flip of the coin is always worth backing, in our humble opinions. 

Southampton v Crystal Palace

When: Thursday 31 Jan 6:45am EDT

The Play: Southampton to win

A Thursday morning triple treat for our followers, with the first of our three value games identifying an edge in the market for Southampton to win what will almost certainly be a tough scrap, with both sides sitting just three points above the relegation zone going into this round.

Southampton have been inspired since a draw at Chelsea, and their victory against Everton last week was their first at home against any club currently sitting in the bottom half of the table. Talk about inconsistency! The one major concern here is that they haven't put together three wins in a row since January 2016.

One also doesn't know what they will get from Crystal Palace at any moment - a side that have taken points from both visits to Manchester but have lost away against seven other clubs placed above them going into the round (inc. Brighton, Bournemouth and Everton). 

The visiting side have won the last three meetings between these two, but our model has that trend snapping in 45.5% of total simulations, which equates to a price of $2.20 in a 100% market. Even with the bookmaker margins accounted for, $2.25 is a good ten cents over the odds according to our ratings and thus worthy of an orange smiley value play.

Bournemouth v Chelsea

When: Thursday 31 Jan 6:45am EDT

The Play: Bournemouth to win / double chance 

Perhaps a lesson in when not to bet here, as the SI model considers the $1.65 for Chelsea to win at Bournemouth to be grossly unders. Chelsea have lost three of their last six on the road (albeit to stronger home sides than Bournemouth), while Bournemouth have just three home losses to their name all season (W6 D3). What's worth noting is that all three have been to "big six" clubs. 

The gap in class between those six and the others is as large as ever this season, so on paper Chelsea should be accounting for the Cherries here. However, the SI model has them winning just 52.2% of simulations, which means to us that they should be at least $1.80 H2H. 

They have won seven of their last eight (L1) against Bournemouth in all competitions, but with the hosts finding the back of the net at least twice in their last three at home, they're well placed to cause an upset right now!

If you fancy leaning towards the ~48% of occurrences where Chelsea do not win, the official orange smiley is on Bournemouth to win, however you may wish to play it safer and tackle the Double Chance or Draw No Bet markets.

Liverpool v Leicester City

When: Thursday 31 Jan 7:00am EDT

The Play: Both to Score - YES 

Similarly to the Newcastle-City game previously, the SI model is predicting both teams to score in 51% of 10,000 simulations at an overs price of $2.05. 

The Foxes are still searching for their first win at Anfield since the year 2000 (D1 L6), and the best Liverpool outfit to have graced the hallowed turf since then are very unlikely to let that long run be broken this season. However, they have conceded in three of their last four at home - two of them to bottom-half clubs - and the model sees it as a flip-of-the-coin likelihood of becoming four from five.

Leicester are one of the strongest travelling sides this season - in fact, the strongest of any club outside the "big six" (W5 D2 L5), and are even enjoying a positive goal-difference away from home since the beginning of November. They have scored in all but one of their 12 away trips this season, and while Liverpool away will be the toughest task they have faced all season, the stats suggest that $2.05 is certainly worth a nibble, especially with both clubs coming off 4-3 results!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is The Edge?

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